HRRR Time Lagged Emsemble

Posted: 14 Mar 2024 05:45 AM, Views: 992
Instead of just looking at one weather forecast model, meteorologists like to look at an ensemble of models to gain more insight into the forecast. There are a number of ways an ensemble of model forecasts can be put together. One way is called a "time lagged ensemble", which puts together number runs of the same weather model, but each member model starting at a different initialization time. The HRRR model is run every hour by NOAA, with about 15 runs or more available at a given forecast hour. The featured map is from an autoplot tool on the IEM that allows generation of postage stamp plots of time lagged simulated and observed RADAR reflectivity. The top left panel shows the observation at 4 AM this morning with the 15 others showing sequentially lagged HRRR model output valid at 4 AM. Meteorologists can gain some confidence that a model is performing well when each run shows similar forecast features and that those features match reality rather well! In this case, showers and thunderstorms over southeastern Iowa and lighter rain over northern Iowa.
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