The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.
HRRR Time Lagged Emsemble
Posted: 14 Mar 2024 05:45 AM, Views: 992
Instead of just looking at one weather forecast model, meteorologists like to look at an ensemble of models to gain more insight into the forecast. There are a number of ways an ensemble of model forecasts can be put together. One way is called a "time lagged ensemble", which puts together number runs of the same weather model, but each member model starting at a different initialization time. The HRRR model is run every hour by NOAA, with about 15 runs or more available at a given forecast hour. The featured map is from an autoplot tool on the IEM that allows generation of postage stamp plots of time lagged simulated and observed RADAR reflectivity. The top left panel shows the observation at 4 AM this morning with the 15 others showing sequentially lagged HRRR model output valid at 4 AM. Meteorologists can gain some confidence that a model is performing well when each run shows similar forecast features and that those features match reality rather well! In this case, showers and thunderstorms over southeastern Iowa and lighter rain over northern Iowa.
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Previous Years' Features
2023: Cold Profile
2022: Early for first 70
2019: Pressure Changes
2018: Second Windiest Month
2016: Recovering Stolen Hour
2014: Difference a week makes
2013: When does spring start?
2011: Frozen March Days
2008: Spring thaw
2007: Wild swing upward
2006: Teens aren't that cold
2005: Cool air and flurries
2003: Foggy March Morning
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Soil Temperatures
Data from the Iowa State Soil Moisture Network is found on this website and daily soil temperature averages are used to produce the highlighted analysis.









