National Weather Service Raw Text Product

593 
ACUS02 KWNS 280550
SWODY2
SPC AC 280549

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of east-central
and northeast Florida Thursday morning and afternoon, in association
with Tropical Cyclone Ian.

...Florida...
Hurricane Ian is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by Thursday
morning and move across the central/northeast FL Peninsula during
the day, before moving offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast by
Thursday evening (see NHC advisories and forecasts for more
information regarding Ian). Based on the latest forecast track, the
highest tornado probabilities have been confined to an area from
near the Space Coast northward to south of Jacksonville, along/south
of the persistent baroclinic zone across north FL, and north of the
midlevel dry slot that is forecast to wrap into Ian's circulation. A
notable convective band is expected to persist through the morning
and potentially into early afternoon in this corridor, with
low-level shear/SRH likely remaining favorable for embedded rotating
cells and a couple brief tornadoes. By late afternoon into the
evening, the threat should begin to diminish across the peninsula as
Ian moves offshore. 

...Northern Rockies...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning and into the northern
Rockies during the afternoon/evening. Cold temperatures aloft and
steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development
from central ID into western/central MT, western WY, and northern
UT. Limited low-level moisture should generally limit buoyancy, but
isolated gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the
strongest storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

..Dean.. 09/28/2022

$$