375 
FXUS64 KMOB 260003
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
603 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

 - Severe threat has diminished across the area this evening. 

 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
   craft across the marine area mid to late week.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 601 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The Tornado Watch has been allowed to expire as of 6pm. Currently, a 
broken line of storms extends along a pre-frontal trough near the I-
65 corridor. While deep layer shear of 40-50 kt is support of strong 
to severe storms, the lack of deep layer forcing and weakening low 
level shear has mitigated the severe threat. Model guidance 
indicates that upper level heights falls will remain meager through 
the rest of the evening as the convective line moves through the 
eastern half of the forecast area. Therefore, we are not expecting 
to see much strengthening of the storms, especially as we lose 
daytime heating. However, cannot completely rule out a brief 
strong/severe storm given the supportive deep layer shear. Strong 
wind gusts and small hail would be the main threats. Again, this is 
a low probability at this point. The tornado threat has greatly 
diminished given veering low level winds and 0-1km shear of only 15 
kt or so. 34/JFB

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A deep upper trough over the Mississippi River swings east over 
the river through tonight before the embedded upper low over the 
Great Lakes heads off. Shortwave energy moving through the base of
the trough moves over the Southeast today into Wednesday, with a 
cold front moving over the Southeast today through Wednesday in 
response. The cold front will cross the forecast area beginning 
late this afternoon and be south of the marine portions of the 
forecast area around sunrise Wednesday. Ahead of the front, the 
12z SPC HREF has a band of SBCapes over land in the 1500 J/kg 
range, with 0-1km helicities of 90-120m^s/2^s initially this 
afternoon, shifting southeast through the afternoon. RAP Bulk 
Shear values of 40-55kts are coincident with the tongue of greater
instability. Upper divergence present earlier in the day has 
moved off, leaving little upper support. A wildcard is some 
guidances advertising a cap situated around 10k', limiting 
vertical development. By the numbers, damaging winds are possible,
especially if the cap is broken and a cell gets into drier air 
above the cap. Also, rotating storms are possible, leading to an 
isolated tornado or two. Mid level lapse rates are meh (<6.0C) but
hail remains a possibility. 

After Wednesday, post frontal cooler and drier air moves over the 
forecast area with upper flow becoming a drier northwesterly into 
Friday. The upper ridge flattens into the weekend as another series 
of upper troughs move over the Southeast beginning Saturday. A cold 
front moves over the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night, 
ushering in a drier airmass. Showers and thunderstorms are expected 
again this weekend ahead of the front. Some guidance is advertising 
upglide showers early in the coming week as the front stalls just 
south of the forecast area. Any rowdy storms are hard to pin down at 
this time, with inconsistent moisture return and dynamics.

Temperatures well above seasonal norms see a drop to near or below 
seasonal norms behind the first cold front tonight. High 
temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 are expected today, 
dropping to the mid to upper 50s for Friday. Some rebound occurs 
over the weekend (mid 60s to around 70) but drop back into the mid 
50s to low 60s over most of the forecast area for the beginning of 
the coming week. Low temperatures see the same roller coaster, 
dropping from mostly 50s tonight to upper 20s north of Highway 84 to 
mid 30s south of I-10 Thursday night. With onshore flow becoming re-
established over the weekend, low temperatures rise into the mid 40s 
to mid 50s for Saturday night. Temperatures drop into the around 40 
to around 50 range for Monday night, with the slowing cold front 
limiting the influx of colder air over the forecast area for the 
beginning of the week.

Onshore winds increase through the week, with a moderate to high Rip 
Risk today through Wednesday. The Rip Risk decreases into Friday, 
but increases to High for the coming weekend. 
/16  

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A broken line of storms near the I-65 corridor will continue moving 
east and should be mostly clear of the region by 06-08z. Brief 
periods of IFR conditions possible in any stronger storms. 
Otherwise, there will be a band of MVFR cigs ahead of the convection 
that will clear out once the convective line moves through. VFR 
conditions will become predominate after midnight into early 
Wednesday morning. Winds will shift out of the north/northwest 
across the area as a cold front moves through late tonight. The 
front should be east of the area by 12z Wednesday. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A moderate onshore flow continues ahead of an approaching 
storm system from the west. A cold front will push through the 
coastal waters tonight into Wednesday morning, with a moderate to 
strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the front and 
persisting through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
late Wednesday into Friday. Winds will become more easterly by 
Saturday, but still in the moderate to strong range, as high 
pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic states.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      57  70  40  61 /  50   0   0   0 
Pensacola   63  72  44  59 /  70   0   0   0 
Destin      64  74  45  60 /  70  10   0   0 
Evergreen   55  70  36  58 /  80   0   0   0 
Waynesboro  52  65  36  59 /  30   0   0   0 
Camden      53  64  35  54 /  80   0   0   0 
Crestview   59  74  37  60 /  80  10   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to noon CST Friday for 
     GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$