693 
FXUS64 KMOB 060530
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- A tropical disturbance in the Southwest Gulf has a High (80 
  percent) chance of developing into a Tropical Depression during 
  midweek as it moves northeastward. Regardless of the track, 
  there is an increasing potential of heavy rainfall late this 
  week.

- A High Risk of rip currents will occur Tuesday through the
  remainder of the week. A Surf Advisory may also become necessary 
  as surf heights near 5 feet.

- Moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds will create
  hazardous for small craft throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

After a multi-day rain event late last week and over the weekend, 
our focus turns to another multi-day rain event late this week and 
over the weekend as a tropical system potentially forms over the 
Gulf. Not exactly the Octobers we are accustomed to. In addition,
we are also focused on impactful beach and marine hazards 
throughout the week due to moderate to strong northeasterly to 
easterly winds.

Latest surface analysis is showing a cold frontal boundary and a 
weak low pressure area just off the coast, with a large high
pressure system to our north. A drier airmass north of this 
front will continue to advect into the region from the northeast
through into Thursday. This will allow the forecast area a chance
to dry out prior to an increase in precipitation chances late in 
the week. For today, we are expecting isolated to scattered 
showers and storms along the coast in close proximity to the 
surface front and low pressure area through mid-afternoon until
the drier air pushes offshore. Rain-free conditions will then
occur across the entire forecast area from late this afternoon
through Thursday night.

With the moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds over
the marine area courtesy of a tight surface pressure gradient,
there will be beach and marine hazards to contend with. A Coastal
Hazard Message has been issued for a High Risk of rip currents
returning Tuesday that will persist through the remainder of the 
week. A Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights 
near 5 feet. In addition, higher winds and seas will create 
hazardous for small craft throughout the week.

A tropical disturbance in the Southwest Gulf has a High (80 
percent) chance of developing into a Tropical Depression during 
midweek as it moves northeastward. Regardless of the track, there 
is an increasing potential of heavy rainfall late this week. It is
too early to determine other potential impacts at this time. 

High temperatures today will be in the lower to middle 80s west of
I-65 and the upper 70s to lower 80s to the east where clouds will
linger. High temperatures will then be in the lower to middle 80s
through Friday. Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 
60s tonight, cooling slightly Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Beach Forecast: A HIGH risk of rip currents will occur Tuesday
through the remainder of the week. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

MVFR ceilings become predominant overnight along and east of I-65,
with VFR conditions expected elsewhere. Occasional IFR ceilings
will be possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning mainly
near the coast. Isolated to scattered showers, with a few possible
embedded storms, will be possible mainly near the coast late
tonight into early Tuesday afternoon. MVFR conditions continue to
prevail through the day on Tuesday along and east of I-65 with 
VFR conditions further to the west. Northeast winds 5-10 knots 
increase to around 10 knots on Tuesday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A cold front will start to push through the waters tonight into
Tuesday and winds will increase from the east and northeast to 
between 15 and 25 knots with the stronger winds out in the open 
waters. Seas will respond to these winds and increase to 4 to 7 
feet creating rough conditions offshore. Due to these conditions, 
a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect starting 6AM Tuesday 
through late-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  84  65  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Pensacola   69  82  68  82 /  10   0  10  10 
Destin      69  83  69  83 /  10  10   0  10 
Evergreen   62  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Waynesboro  63  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Camden      61  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0 
Crestview   64  82  62  82 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT this morning through late 
     Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT this morning through late 
     Saturday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 AM CDT Friday 
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$