439 
FXUS64 KMOB 201739
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1239 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Abnormally hot conditions continue with a Heat Advisory in
  effect for all locations Thursday and Friday as afternoon heat
  indices rise into the 108 to 112 range.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to be capable of
  producing brief intense rainfall, resulting in localized 
  flooding and locally strong to damaging wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Starting off with late this morning, offshore convection 
continues, fueled by ample marine instability and the remnant 
landbreeze boundary. Will keep an eye on weak/subtle backbuilding 
and NW propagation per recent upwind corfidi vectors from the SE, 
but should remain weak enough and locked over outer waters before
dissipating. Otherwise, we'll heat on up over land areas again 
today enough to reach convective T. Looks like it'll be another 
similar day to yesterday with earliest convection igniting from 
greatest onset forcing caused by either subtle confluence bands or
seabreeze interactions. Any boundary interactions will quickly 
allow updrafts to accelerate, and with notable dry air entrainment
(DCAPE >1000j/kg), severe downburst winds will yet again be 
another risk. Best timing from 2PM-7PM this afternoon. Otherwise, 
no modifications needed to temperatures as guidance/trends remains
on track, with a Heat Advisory remaining in effect.

Friday and going into the weekend, we remain in general mid-level
weakness on the eastern periphery of an anonymously strong ridge 
over the four corners region, with broad troughing centered over 
the Ohio/TN valley. Could distinctly see a rinse- repeat of 
today/yesterday again for Friday introducing another round of 
strong to locally severe storms in the afternoon hours. 
Additionally, went with another Heat Advisory for all areas as 
heat indices reach 108-111, moreso along the I-10 corridor. Then,
going into the weekend, the aforementioned broad trough sharpens 
into the mid/southern Atlantic states, helping to push (slightly) 
drier air aloft into the region. Could see just enough suppression
to offset peak heating, diurnally forced convection, or at least 
enough to lower coverage overall. NBM PoPs are coming into 
agreement on that idea reducing coverage down to 10-20% in areas. 
Still, areas of greatest forcing, enough to offset this 
suppression (moreso caused by seabreeze/boundary confluence) could
get a few isolated storms going. 

With this slightly drier air, it's likely we'll be introduced 
with lower dewpoints, perhaps reaching the low to mid 60's for 
interior AL counties which will reduce the need for heat 
advisories. However, will watch the coast where it could remain 
close enough, especially near/south of the I-10 corridor.

Monday into next week, focus will be on what long-range guidance 
is hinting with shortwave impulses riding around the ridge from 
the north-central Plains into the TN valley, and how any 
sfc/mesoscale reflection could be in the form of either a NW to SE
MCS, and how far/expansive these (possible several) complexes 
could become if they could clip our area. Something to watch, 
otherwise it remains pretty typical for summer next week with 
highs in the mid 90's and max heat indices in the 103-108 range 
thanks to slightly drier air at the sfc. KLG 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Showers and thunderstorms 
return to the area this afternoon into the early evening. These 
storms are accompanied by gusty winds and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR 
and even locally IFR within the strongest storms. Winds are 
generally light and variable inland and become southerly to 
southwesterly at 5-10 knots with periodic gusts up to 15 knots as 
the afternoon seabreeze advances inland. These winds wane after 
sunset and become generally northwesterly after sunrise. SS/97

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A light to occasionally moderate mostly westerly flow pattern will 
persists late this week into next week. Winds are expected to shift 
northwesterly late each night and then southwesterly in the 
afternoon. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can 
be expected each morning with locally higher seas and winds near 
storms. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  95  74  95 /  10  60  20  10 
Pensacola   78  93  77  93 /  10  50  30  20 
Destin      79  91  79  91 /  10  50  40  20 
Evergreen   72  96  70  96 /  40  60  30  10 
Waynesboro  73  98  70  98 /  20  50  20  10 
Camden      73  95  72  95 /  30  40  30   0 
Crestview   73  95  73  95 /  20  60  30  20 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$