375 FXUS64 KMOB 260003 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 603 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 601 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Severe threat has diminished across the area this evening. - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small craft across the marine area mid to late week. - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches through Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 601 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 The Tornado Watch has been allowed to expire as of 6pm. Currently, a broken line of storms extends along a pre-frontal trough near the I- 65 corridor. While deep layer shear of 40-50 kt is support of strong to severe storms, the lack of deep layer forcing and weakening low level shear has mitigated the severe threat. Model guidance indicates that upper level heights falls will remain meager through the rest of the evening as the convective line moves through the eastern half of the forecast area. Therefore, we are not expecting to see much strengthening of the storms, especially as we lose daytime heating. However, cannot completely rule out a brief strong/severe storm given the supportive deep layer shear. Strong wind gusts and small hail would be the main threats. Again, this is a low probability at this point. The tornado threat has greatly diminished given veering low level winds and 0-1km shear of only 15 kt or so. 34/JFB && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 A deep upper trough over the Mississippi River swings east over the river through tonight before the embedded upper low over the Great Lakes heads off. Shortwave energy moving through the base of the trough moves over the Southeast today into Wednesday, with a cold front moving over the Southeast today through Wednesday in response. The cold front will cross the forecast area beginning late this afternoon and be south of the marine portions of the forecast area around sunrise Wednesday. Ahead of the front, the 12z SPC HREF has a band of SBCapes over land in the 1500 J/kg range, with 0-1km helicities of 90-120m^s/2^s initially this afternoon, shifting southeast through the afternoon. RAP Bulk Shear values of 40-55kts are coincident with the tongue of greater instability. Upper divergence present earlier in the day has moved off, leaving little upper support. A wildcard is some guidances advertising a cap situated around 10k', limiting vertical development. By the numbers, damaging winds are possible, especially if the cap is broken and a cell gets into drier air above the cap. Also, rotating storms are possible, leading to an isolated tornado or two. Mid level lapse rates are meh (<6.0C) but hail remains a possibility. After Wednesday, post frontal cooler and drier air moves over the forecast area with upper flow becoming a drier northwesterly into Friday. The upper ridge flattens into the weekend as another series of upper troughs move over the Southeast beginning Saturday. A cold front moves over the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night, ushering in a drier airmass. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this weekend ahead of the front. Some guidance is advertising upglide showers early in the coming week as the front stalls just south of the forecast area. Any rowdy storms are hard to pin down at this time, with inconsistent moisture return and dynamics. Temperatures well above seasonal norms see a drop to near or below seasonal norms behind the first cold front tonight. High temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 are expected today, dropping to the mid to upper 50s for Friday. Some rebound occurs over the weekend (mid 60s to around 70) but drop back into the mid 50s to low 60s over most of the forecast area for the beginning of the coming week. Low temperatures see the same roller coaster, dropping from mostly 50s tonight to upper 20s north of Highway 84 to mid 30s south of I-10 Thursday night. With onshore flow becoming re- established over the weekend, low temperatures rise into the mid 40s to mid 50s for Saturday night. Temperatures drop into the around 40 to around 50 range for Monday night, with the slowing cold front limiting the influx of colder air over the forecast area for the beginning of the week. Onshore winds increase through the week, with a moderate to high Rip Risk today through Wednesday. The Rip Risk decreases into Friday, but increases to High for the coming weekend. /16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 A broken line of storms near the I-65 corridor will continue moving east and should be mostly clear of the region by 06-08z. Brief periods of IFR conditions possible in any stronger storms. Otherwise, there will be a band of MVFR cigs ahead of the convection that will clear out once the convective line moves through. VFR conditions will become predominate after midnight into early Wednesday morning. Winds will shift out of the north/northwest across the area as a cold front moves through late tonight. The front should be east of the area by 12z Wednesday. 34/JFB && .MARINE... Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 A moderate onshore flow continues ahead of an approaching storm system from the west. A cold front will push through the coastal waters tonight into Wednesday morning, with a moderate to strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the front and persisting through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for late Wednesday into Friday. Winds will become more easterly by Saturday, but still in the moderate to strong range, as high pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic states. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 57 70 40 61 / 50 0 0 0 Pensacola 63 72 44 59 / 70 0 0 0 Destin 64 74 45 60 / 70 10 0 0 Evergreen 55 70 36 58 / 80 0 0 0 Waynesboro 52 65 36 59 / 30 0 0 0 Camden 53 64 35 54 / 80 0 0 0 Crestview 59 74 37 60 / 80 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to noon CST Friday for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675. && $$