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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2019-02-18 23:39 UTC
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260 FXUS64 KLUB 182339 AAA AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 539 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019 .AVIATION... Considerable uncertainty in the aviation forecasts for KLBB/KPVW/KCDS with the potential for a wintry mix of precipitation starting tomorrow morning. Until then, all TAF sites will remain VFR with a gradual decrease in ceiling heights through Tuesday morning. Eventually ceilings will drop to MVFR and then likely IFR around sunrise local time Tuesday. After that, a mix of wintry precipitation, likely freezing drizzle and snow, will develop at KLBB and KPVW. KCDS is more uncertain on the precipitation type but will likely see predominantly freezing rain. Temperatures at all three TAF sites will hover around freezing which complicates the precipitation type forecast. Wintry precipitation will not result in major ground accumulations but elevated surfaces may develop a light coating of ice. Precipitation should end at KLBB and KPVW late Tuesday afternoon but potentially linger at KCDS through the end of this TAF cycle. Jordan && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019/ DISCUSSION... An upper level long wave trough stretches across the west coast this afternoon. As the trough axis moves across the Rockies on Tuesday it will bring us a chance of wintry precipitation before lifting north on Wednesday. There are not many significant changes since the previous model runs, and it continues to look like the best chance for precip will be between 12Z on Tuesday and 06Z on Wednesday. While forecast soundings do have the column saturating starting around 12Z, the moist layer is very shallow, all below 750mb. Temperatures continue to look cold, with the majority of the CWA remaining below freezing through the day on Tuesday, the only exceptions being a few southwest and southeast counties. The real question will be if we remain cold enough for snow or if we warm slightly and we have more freezing drizzle. Soundings to the west show more snow while further east would support either snow or freezing drizzle. Have kept the general areas of snow/snow and freezing drizzle from previous forecast. Have added an area of liquid drizzle for the afternoon where temps are expected to get above freezing. Accumulations should be light, and areas of snow should have limited impacts. The bigger concern will be freezing drizzle, especially for the Tuesday morning commute with slick roads. Will continue the SPS but will hold off on any other products or advisories until tonight to see how event shapes up. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the rest of the week and westerly and southwesterly surface winds will help temperatures moderate to near 60 by Thursday. The next upper level trough will move down the west coast on Thursday before ejecting northeast on Sunday. This system will bring another quick shot of precip Friday through Saturday. Temperatures will remain above freezing Friday night, so have a 20-30% chance of showers. As the trough moves overhead on Saturday, winds will kick up to 20-25 kts in the afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 14