National Weather Service Raw Text Product

119 
FXUS64 KLUB 191142
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
642 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Zonal flow aloft this morning will persist through much of the 
daytime hours before gradually becoming southwest as a progressive 
shortwave trough takes shape across SoCal today and shifts east into 
Arizona by early tomorrow morning. Cloud cover will steadily 
increase from the south throughout the day today, keeping 
temperatures in the 60s area wide, while surface dewpoints climb 
from the mid/upper 30s this afternoon to low/mid 40s later tonight. 
Rain chances begin to increase after midnight tonight as a surface 
trough broadens across our area under increased lift out ahead of 
the deepening synoptic trough to our west. Rain amounts before 
sunrise Saturday morning are expected to be less than a tenth of an 
inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Our widespread rainfall along with much below normal high 
temperatures are still on track for Saturday. Compared to previous 
forecasts though the surface cold front has trended farther south 
which continues to shift the axis of heaviest rainfall farther south 
as well. Saturday will start off cloudy and drizzly with a few light 
rain showers. However, as a shortwave quickly approaches from the 
west more organized showers and thunderstorms should develop as lift 
increases over the forecast area. Elevated instability in the 
morning hours around 1000 J/Kg along with straight line hodographs 
suggest that there may be some small hail risk primarily across the 
southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains. However, this 
instability will quickly diminish as we move into the late morning 
hours with light to moderate showers and a few rumbles of thunder 
continuing through the afternoon and early evening. Precipitation 
will come to an end from west to east as subsidence increases behind 
the shortwave Sunday evening. With the persistent cloud cover, 
precipitation, and a reinforcing cold front, high temperatures on 
Saturday will struggle to warm into the lower 50s. When all is said 
and done the southern Rolling Plains should see the highest rainfall 
totals with a 50-80 percent chance of exceeding a half inch of 
rainfall while Lubbock only has a 30 percent chance. 

Surface high pressure will settle into Oklahoma on Sunday and with 
continued cloud cover through at least the afternoon this will keep 
high temperatures below normal once again right around 60 degrees. 
Upper-level ridging will strengthen overhead on Monday but quickly 
shift east by Tuesday. This will allow  a return of downsloping 
southwesterly winds as lee surface troughing takes shape. This will 
help to boost temperatures back above normal for early next week 
with high temperatures back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. A passing 
wave across the Northern Plains will send another surface cold front 
into our area Tuesday evening which will knock temperatures back to 
near average for Wednesday. A weak shortwave is expected to move 
through the ridge on Wednesday as well and with southeasterly 
surface flow ahead of this system enough moisture may be in place 
for another round of showers and thunderstorms although confidence 
remains low at this time due to the weak nature of the system. A 
more substantial system is expected towards the end of next week 
however large spreads in the timing and strength of this system 
exists hence confidence is below average in the details for the end 
of next week. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

MVFR ceilings are expanding from the south this morning and should
impact KLBB this morning. These low ceilings should dissipate by
late morning with VFR conditions expected through the afternoon
hours. MVFR to IFR ceilings should return to the terminals this 
evening into the overnight hours and persist through at least
tomorrow morning. At the end of this TAF period showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop near KLBB and move to the
north and east through tomorrow. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...58