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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2018-06-19 05:26 UTC


039 
FXUS64 KLUB 190526
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR next 24 hours. Outside change of TSRA Tuesday afternoon mainly
west of KLBB/KPVW.

&&



PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Another day with isolated to scattered convection in a humid
airmass across the Rolling Plains and questions of how far west
this activity will push. Storms are developing in an axis of
higher moisture seen on the GOES-16 high-level moisture/6.19
micron band which is roughly along and east of a Silverton to Post
line. Storms are already kicking out an outflow boundary that is
marching west and new storms may develop along and east of the
boundary. The biggest question is how far west storms will 
develop as dewpoints taper off as one heads towards the TX/NM 
state line. Best precipitation chances should remain along and 
east of I-27/US 87 tonight with the activity tapering off after 
sunset. Tomorrow should be drier across the Rolling Plains but we 
could see a few storms drift into the western South Plains late in
the day as flow aloft becomes westerly which could push storms 
off the higher terrain into our forecast area. Temperatures will 
be fairly close to what we are seeing today as southerly to 
southeasterly surface winds keep a humid airmass in place.

Wednesday could be the day we see the best rainfall chances for
the week as a cold front pushes into the region and could stall
out across the area in the afternoon. Models differ on how far
south the boundary will make it and there will be little cool air
behind the front to help shove it south faster than model
forecasts. All models have been consistently favoring the Rolling
Plains with the highest precipitation chances through the day and
tapering off heading into the South Plains but this could change
depending on how strong northwesterly flow aloft develops through
the day. If convection can fire across the Sangres or Raton Mesa
and push southeast late in the day, we could see increased rain
chances across the South Plains as well. Temperatures will depend
on how much cloud cover and precipitation develops along the front
and will only see a degree or two cooler than we did on Tuesday IF
the front remains on track as in the 12Z model runs.  

Temperatures will then start to warm and precipitation chances
taper off heading into the weekend. Saturday remains highly
uncertain for temperatures as heights really don't build much over
the area with zonal to northwesterly flow but all models show
thickness values increasing quite a bit during the day. MOS
guidance continues to show readings at or above the century mark
for all but the northwestern South Plains which will be in the
upper 90s. Ensemble run temperatures show the potential for
temperatures to be in the 102-104 degree range for Lubbock and
Childress, and a few warmer readings than that for portions of the
Rolling Plains.

The good news is that the heat should be relatively short-lived as
we move into the first part of next week as thickness values start
to decrease and we see the potential for some weak disturbances to
move across the area. The GFS shows that there could be afternoon
and evening thunderstorms across the area the first part of next
week with the ECMWF not as optimistic. Both models do show the
potential for another weak cold front Monday afternoon but differ
on how far south it will reach in the afternoon. Will keep a dry
forecast for now and temperatures falling back into low to mid 90s
for the South Plains and mid to upper 90s for the Rolling Plains.

Jordan

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26