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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2018-04-26 11:41 UTC

FXUS64 KLUB 261141 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
641 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Cold front will arrive
this afternoon swinging the wind to the north and still looking
like 20-30 kts sustained after the frontal passage. Models are now
showing the possibility of storms aroud KCDS but uncertainty is
too high to include at this time. Wind speeds will decrease after



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/ 

It is another cool start to the day with 07Z temperatures mostly in 
the lower to middle 40s, though unlike yesterday morning skies were 
clear and winds were light and variable. Winds will quickly return 
to a southwesterly component later this morning on the northwest 
side of the departing surface high and downstream of troughing over 
the southern Rockies. The dry downslope flow and full insolation 
will promote quick warming until a cold front associated with a 
shortwave trough currently diving south-southeastward across Wyoming 
enters the picture. This front is expected to move into the 
northwest zones around midday and advance quickly southward across
the Caprock through the afternoon, though it won't exit the 
southeast zones until this evening. Where the front is later to 
move through across the southern South Plains and much of the 
Rolling Plains temperatures may make it into the lower 80s, while 
over the northwest temperatures will flatline in the lower 70s 
this afternoon. Gusty northerly winds will accompany the FROPA, 
mostly sustained in the 20 to 30 mph range, though a few spots 
across the southwest Texas Panhandle into the western South Plains
could flirt with low-end advisory levels briefly this afternoon. 
Since it looks like wind speeds will be marginal for a wind 
advisory we will not issue one at this time, but we will add a 
mention to the HWO and the next shift will have to watch trends 
to make sure wind speeds don't exceed expectations as the front 
advances down the High Plains today. Large scale lift from the 
approaching shortwave will skirt by the northeast corner of the 
CWA late this afternoon into this evening. Given the dry and 
deeply mixed boundary layer, prospects for more than an increase 
in clouds and virga showers is low, so PoPs have been kept around 
10% up around Childress and even lower south and west of there. 
The winds will gradually subside tonight as our next surface ridge 
builds into the region. This will provide a fantastic Friday with 
light winds, and after a cool start (lows in the mid-30s northwest 
to mid-40s southeast) afternoon temperatures will peak in the lower 
and middle 70s. Progressive upper ridging will follow late Friday 
into Saturday. This will quickly give way to a prolonged period 
of some form of southwest flow aloft downstream of western 
troughing from late weekend into the middle of next week. Return 
flow will begin on Saturday with persistent southerly low-level 
flow continuing through the remainder of the period east of a 
sharpening dryline. Initially West Texas will experience warming 
temperatures but dry weather for the first half of the weekend. 
However, moisture should improve enough to bring a chance of 
thunderstorms across the western zones as early as Sunday as a 
lead shortwave emerges over the High Plains and the surface 
trough/dryline sets up near the TX/NM line. 

Moving into next week, there is now decent agreement a portion of 
the western trough will eject over the northern High Plains on 
Monday as additional jet energy digs off the West Coast. This will 
effectively boost the westerly component to the winds aloft which 
will give the dryline a nudge eastward on Monday, and it appears the 
best storm chances will shift to the central or eastern zones by 
Monday afternoon. After the nocturnal retreat it appears the dryline 
will mix even further east on Tuesday, perhaps even out of the FA, 
though at this point we have maintained a minimal thunder mention 
over the far eastern zones. The next piece of jet energy may then 
briefly close off to an upper low over the Desert Southwest before 
opening as it emerges over the central High Plains and begins to 
phase with a northern stream trough Wednesday night into early 
Thursday. Assuming this timing holds (which it probably won't given 
it's 6-7 days out) we could see storm chances briefly peak as the
retreating dryline encounters the large scale ascent from the 
approaching low/trough, before the South Plains would be dry 
slotted. Regardless of how things play out, it definitely looks 
like more typical spring weather will be in the cards for the 
latter half of the forecast with an active dryline and the 
prospects for several days of severe thunderstorms in the region. 
The tricky part this far out is pinpointing where the risk of 
severe weather will be on any given day, and this will have to be 
refined as details become clearer over the coming days. For now we
have slight chance to low chance PoPs for portions of the CWA 
from Sunday through Wednesday, favoring the western zones Sunday, 
and then the eastern zones thereafter. Temperatures will swing to 
the warm side of average through this stretch, with increasingly 
gusty winds too. West of the dryline we will also see fire 
weather concerns return. 

A cold front will move out of the southwest Texas Panhandle and 
across the South Plains this afternoon. Gusty northerly winds 
sustained at 20 to 30 mph will be common behind the front. These 
gusty winds will combine with RH values in the teens to create a 
period of elevated to briefly critical fire weather. Conditions will 
gradually ease this evening as winds decrease and RHs climb. A Fire 
Danger Statement (RFD) will be issued for locations on the Caprock 
valid from midday until 8 pm. After a stretch of pleasant weather
tomorrow through the weekend, fire weather concerns will likely 
rise west of a dryline next week.