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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2018-11-14 23:39 UTC

FXUS64 KLUB 142339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
539 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018/ 

Forecast is quiet through the rest of the work week as
northwesterly flow aloft gradually becomes zonal. This will help a 
lee surface trough develop across eastern New Mexico and bring a 
return of southerly to southwesterly flow to the area.
Temperatures in the afternoon will warm back into the 60s by 
Friday with lows near freezing across the Caprock with upper 30s 
to lower 40s over the Rolling Plains. Models still bring a cold 
front into the area Saturday morning with subtle differences in 
the timing which will impact high temperatures. It still appears 
that the front will arrive early enough to hold high temperatures 
in the mid 40s in the northwestern South Plains but hold of long 
enough to allow temperatures to warm into the low 60s ahead of the
front in the southern Rolling Plains. The ECMWF is a bit faster 
than the GFS so will have to wait until this front moves into the 
time-frame of the higher-resolution models to see what the timing 
will be to better nail down the impact the front will have on
highs Saturday.

Continued northerly flow behind the front Sunday with the surface
ridge settling in over the Rolling Plains into Oklahoma will 
result in another cold morning Monday with lows areawide dropping
below freezing. Another warmup will ensue through Wednesday as a 
weak ridge moves across the forecast area. Just beyond the end of
this forecast cycle, models are struggling to figure out what the
flow pattern will be and what may be a return of slight 
precipitation chances to the forecast. Temperatures are looking to
be above freezing with this next system but the biggest 
differences are focused on the potential for a strong wind event. 
14/00Z ECMWF had a pattern that favors high winds across the area
but backed off significantly in the 12Z run. The GFS has been a 
bit more consistent from run to run with a fairly progressive 
system which would favor breezy conditions Thanksgiving afternoon.
Will need to keep an eye on this as we head through the next seven
days to see how the models evolve with time for the potential of 
a Thanksgiving Day weather event.