456 
FXUS62 KGSP 052318
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
718 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will warm through Saturday ahead of a moist cold
front to our northwest. Isolated showers and storms are expected 
this afternoon and evening, with scattered to numerous showers 
and storms likely on Saturday when the front pushes through the 
area. Cooler and drier weather returns on Sunday and lingers well 
into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Friday: Convection getting off to a much slower 
start this afternoon despite the moderately unstable air mass. CAMs 
are favoring diurnal convection along and near the Blue Ridge west 
across the mountains with isolated coverage at best to the east and 
south. Have followed these trends for PoP coverage into the evening. 
There is very little in the way of bulk shear, but DCAPEs are much 
higher than yesterday. Therefore, a few of the storms that do form 
could be strong to severe with damaging winds the main threat. 

Convection develops along an approaching cold front to our west. 
However, the CAMs and synoptic guidance show them diminishing as 
they move toward and into the mountains overnight. Can't rule out 
some showers or isolated storms with dry conditions elsewhere. 
Mountain valley fog, and patchy fog elsewhere, is possible overnight 
and early Saturday, but convective debris clouds may keep a lid on 
it, and any low stratus. Lows will range from near to around 5 
degrees above normal. 

The cold front moves in from the west late in the day on Saturday. 
Increasing moisture and forcing ahead of the front will lead to a 
better chance of diurnal convection on Saturday, first across the 
mountains then spreading south and east as the front moves through. 
A moderately unstable air mass develops ahead of the front with mid 
level dry air keeping DCAPE values on the higher side. Bulk shear is 
relatively light, but increases to around 20 kts. A few storms will 
become strong to severe, mainly outside of the mountains, with 
damaging winds the main threat. Highs will be near normal across the 
mountains and up to 5 degrees above normal elsewhere. This will 
result in our last 90 degree day for at least a weak and possibly 
the rest of the season.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1:30 PM EDT Friday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z 
on Sunday with long-wave upper trofing amplifying again over 
the eastern CONUS and upper ridging over the west. Over the 
next couple of days, the trof axis will translate eastward 
passing to our north and then lift NE as the period is ending.
At the sfc, a moist cold front will be moving thru our fcst
area as the period begins late Saturday. Stout high pressure 
behind the front will push the boundary east/south of our fcst 
area by Sunday evening with cooler/drier air spreading over the 
Carolinas for the rest of the period. The front and any convec-
tion associated with it will shift east/south of our fcst area
early Sunday. It still appears that just enough moisture could 
linger on Sunday to allow for isolated diurnal convection across 
our area, but PoPs are capped at slight chance. The rest of the
period will be cooler and drier with high temps expected to be 
roughly 4 to 6 degrees below climatology on Sunday and 6 to 8
degrees below climo on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1:15 PM EDT Friday: The extended fcst picks up at 00z on 
Tuesday with broad upper trofing retreating northward as heights 
rebound over our area. The large-scale pattern will amplify again
later in the week as upper trofing digs down over New England and
stout upper ridging builds to our west over the central CONUS.
At the sfc, robust high pressure will be centered to our north
and covering most of the eastern CONUS as the period begins late
Monday. Over the next couple of days, the high will slide NE and
off the New England Coast by late Wednesday. At the same time, 
the long-range models try to develop a weak sfc low just off the
SE Coast and wrap its deeper moisture inland and over our area. 
It remains unclear if and exactly where this low will form. Re-
gardless, essentially all of the long-range guidance has another 
(even more robust high) migrate southward from Canada by late next 
week and push drier air back over the SE. Overall, we can expect
cool and mostly dry conditions thru the period. Some of the long-
range guidance does increase precip chances Wed and Thurs leaning 
more towards the above-mentioned low developing just offshore, yet
the bulk of the guidance keeps PoPs less than 20% thru that period. 
Otherwise, temperatures are expected to remain 5 to 10 degrees below 
climatology on Tues and Wed and a just a few degrees below climo for
Thurs and Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly VFR conditions expected through the 
TAF period. A few showers are dissipating across the area and should 
clear up shortly after 00z. To the west, a decent cloud deck should 
move over the region overnight, but keeps cigs VFR. For the 
mountains terminals, confidence in any valley fog or low stratus 
reaching KAVL/KHKY is low given the cloud cover diffusing the lower 
cloud development. Still could have a brief MVFR restriction for 
vsby around sunrise though. After 13z, expect VFR through the 
afternoon. A cold front approaches the area from the NW and TSRA is 
expected at all sites during the afternoon/evening hours, so a 
PROB30 is in place everywhere. Winds tonight remain light and SW and 
VRB at KAVL. For KCLT, expect a NW wind shift toward the end of the 
TAF period as the front crosses. 

Outlook: Some showers and associated restrictions may linger behind 
a cold front on Sunday. Otherwise dry high pressure expected. Fog 
and/or low stratus is possible each morning, especially in the 
favored mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CP