989 
FXUS62 KGSP 250029
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
729 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry but mild high pressure persists today.  A moist cold front 
crosses the area Tuesday into Wednesday, producing widespread 
showers and a few thunderstorms.  Much colder temperatures arrive 
behind it and continue into the weekend.  Forecast confidence is 
very low beyond Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1217 PM EST Monday: An open shortwave trough currently located 
over the Central Plains will shift over the Mid-MS Valley tonight 
and into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday with an attendant cold 
front. Surface high currently parked over the Mid-Atlantic will 
gradually move offshore by this evening and set up shop over the 
western Atlantic by Tuesday. Better low-level return flow and a warm 
front that lifts into the area tonight into Tuesday will place the 
area under a warm sector regime by daybreak Tuesday, especially over 
the Upstate, northeast Georgia, and southern Blue Ridge Escarpment. 
As a better LLJ (35-45 kts) punches in from the south behind the 
front, expect a few warm advection showers with isentropic 
enhancement to develop during the early morning areas before the 
first band of DPVA and height falls move a blob of precip across the 
area from west to east after deeper convection develops over the 
Deep South, starting around daybreak Tuesday in the southwest 
mountains and Upper Savannah River Valley. Overnight lows will vary 
from the southwestern portion of the CWFA to the northeast in the 
western NC Piedmont as better cloud cover and rising dewpoints will 
push into locations west of the I-26 corridor during the nighttime 
period, which allows temperatures to be 10-15 degrees above normal, 
while locations east of the I-26 corridor run 5-10 degrees above 
normal.

After the initial blob of precip lifts northeast of the CWFA
by the early afternoon, a lull in the precip may occur outside
of a few WAA showers ahead of the main front encroaching the
region. Widespread mid 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will allow for
some form of destabilization to be present as the incoming activity
develop convective elements. However, CAMs struggle to form much in
the way of surface instability, but there will be 250-500 J/kg of
MUCAPE. The main portion of the convection moves into the area after
sunset and pushes across the CWFA through the rest of the evening
and the first half of the overnight period. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
of 45-55 kts, elevated instability, and good moisture available will
allow a broken line of convection along the main frontal band. Still
looking like the severe threat will be very low, but not nonzero,
with a damaging wind gust possible in one or two storms. QPF
response will be locally heavy with most guidance showing 1-3"
of total rainfall, mainly being highlighted across the favorable
upslope zones along the southern Blue Ridge Escarpment and southwest
mountains, with less than inch elsewhere. With the CWFA placed in a
robust warm sector despite cloud cover, afternoon highs will still
manage to run 5-10 degrees above normal, with some locations south
and east of I-85 topping out at ~15 degrees above normal where
the warm sector will be established for a longer period of time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1103 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Severe weather increasingly unlikely on Wednesday as
showers/thunder exit the area early in the day.

2) Clear, dry, and cool weather returns by Wednesday night and
persists into Thursday.

Still looking like we're back to a non-severe setup for
Wednesday, as operational guidance doubles down on a faster
frontal passage...to the extent that now, by 18z Wednesday, most
models depict precipitation largely east of us, an even low-end
surface-based instability barely clipping our southeastnermost
zones, if at all.  So...think this will largely preclude any
potential for severe storms on Wednesday; rather, expect a steady
NW breeze to continue through much of the day in the CAA regime
that develops behind the front.  Expect skies to clear up quite a
bit through the day Wednesday...allowing better solar insolation
alongside weak downsloping...offsetting any effects of CAA and
resulting in highs actually a degree or two warmer than on Tuesday.

By Wednesday night, however, as winds weaken, downsloping abates,
and decent radiative cooling takes hold...expect lows in the
mid-30s, possibly hitting freezing across some Foothills locations
outside the thermal belt.  Considerably cooler weather is in store
for Thursday, as the colder postfrontal air mass fully settles
into the area...resulting in highs only reaching the lower 50s
across the low terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1137 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Bitterly cold air remains in place through at least Saturday.

2) Another cold front arrives on Sunday or Monday, bringing mostly
rain but the possibility of frozen p-types to the mountains.

A cold air mass will remain in place across the region through at
least Saturday.  Highs on Friday and Saturday may not climb out of
the 40s, while overnight lows will drop into the 20s amid excellent
radiative cooling conditions.  Generally expect clear and quiet
conditions each afternoon...with the main concern being potential
for low RHs co-located with breezy afternoon winds.  Right now,
overlap warranting any red flag products is pretty scant...and
the thinking is that ample rainfall associated with the Tue/Wed
system should moisten fuels enough to preclude a significant fire
weather threat.  The forecast will nonetheless need to be monitored
over the coming days.

By Saturday night, much of the eastern CONUS will find itself
beneath a nebulous upper pattern, with mostly flat, unconstrained
z500 flow.  Embedded upper vorticity will gently steer a cold
front across the Ozark Plateau and into the Southeast by Sunday
or Monday...resulting in precipitation developing sometime near
the end of the period.  The details remain murky, however - faster
guidance like the EC and many of its ensembles bring precip into
the area as early as the predawn hours Sunday; slower guidance
like the GEFS keep us dry until after the end of D7.  Depending on
how exactly things flesh out...frozen p-types aren't out of the
question...but it's far, far too soon to make any determines as
to what this system may look like.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expecting VFR conditions to prevail for
a bit longer than previously fcst, with restrictions not expected 
until around daybreak for the Upstate terminals and KAVL and a 
few hrs later for KHKY and KCLT. Cloud cover will gradually in-
crease with mid to upper-level clouds moving over the terminals 
thru the evening. As better moisture moves into the area, expect 
cigs to go MVFR around daybreak and then IFR a few hrs after that.
I don't have any prevailing SHRA until mid to late morning for 
KAVL and the Upstate terminals with prevailing SHRA at KHKY a few 
hrs after that. At KCLT, prevailing showers aren't expected until 
later Tuesday evening with PROB30s before that. Sct showers will 
continue thru the day and into the evening, however cigs should 
improve somewhat at the Upstate terminals by the late aftn/early 
evening. Cigs at KAVL and KHKY are more likely to remain IFR thru
the end of the taf period. Winds will be light and from the E/SE
tonight and early Tuesday with some sites going calm overnight. 
Winds will pick up from the S tomorrow aftn, and remain S to SW
thru the evening. At KAVL, winds will be light and from the S/SE 
thru the morning. They will pick up again from the S by the early 
aftn and remain SLY thru the evening. In addition, KAVL can expect 
a few hrs of LLWS during the early to mid aftn. 

Outlook: Numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms with
associated restrictions are expected late Tuesday into Wednesday 
as a moist cold front moves thru the area. Drier and predominantly 
VFR conditions should return by Wednesday aftn and linger thru late 
week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...CAC/JPT
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JPT