011 FXUS62 KGSP 261835 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 135 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure arrives for Thanksgiving and the weekend from central Canada. Another cold front arrives Sunday with a secondary low pressure system on Tuesday. This may result in lingering precipitation chances through the first half of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1200 PM EST Wednesday: A digging upper trough will gradually propagate eastward from the Upper Great Lakes into western Quebec as broad cyclonic flow aloft settles over the eastern CONUS through the near term. The attendant cold front is currently encroaching the NC/TN border, which will make a full fropa across the CWFA later this evening. Strong CAA behind the front will create a sharp pressure gradient across the mountains and lead to advisory level gusts, so the current Wind Advisory through noon Thursday is well placed as gusts of 45-55 mph is possible at elevations above 3500' in the northern mountains. Weak downsloping and compressional heating ahead of the front will allow afternoon highs to reach 6-12 degrees above normal and help to delay the onset of CAA behind the front, especially outside of the mountains. CAA settles in across the CWFA overnight with lows a category or so below normal with gusty winds. Gusty winds will linger throughout the day Thursday as deep boundary layer mixing will tap into the higher gusts at the top of the layer and mix down a few stronger gusts at the surface, especially during the afternoon. Some high clouds may develop during the day as an area of scattered DPVA moves overhead across the area. However, low-levels will be bone dry and dewpoints are expected to crash, especially with deep mixing despite somewhat saturated mid- levels. RH values should drop to or below 30%, but recent precip should preclude any Fire Danger Statements at this time, but that may change between now and overnight tonight. Afternoon highs will run 4-8 degrees below normal for Thursday with anomalously low thicknesses in place and continued CAA within a post-frontal regime. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM EST Wednesday: Key Message: Cold and dry conditions continue through the short term A cold and very dry air mass will remain in place through Friday and Saturday. Forecast temperatures will generally run ten to fifteen degrees below normal through the period. The drop will feel especially sharp given the eight day stretch of above normal temperatures that preceded this pattern. NBM ensemble spread remains small for daytime highs, with only a two to three degree difference between the twenty fifth and seventy fifth percentiles for both Friday and Saturday. This supports high confidence in below normal but relatively uniform temperatures during the day. Overnight lows are slightly more uncertain due to questions regarding how efficiently winds decouple, especially across the Foothills where NBM spread for MinT ranges from three to five degrees Thursday night. Even if winds remain elevated enough to limit radiational cooling somewhat, confidence is high that temperatures will fall below freezing across nearly the entire forecast area. NBM probabilities of MinT below 28 degrees range from seventy to one hundred percent across all areas except the urban core of Charlotte and portions of the Upper Savannah River Basin. High pressure centered overhead Friday night will bring ideal radiational cooling conditions under clear skies and calm winds. This will likely be the coldest night of the upcoming week, with lows falling into the teens across the mountains and the lower to mid twenties across the Foothills and Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 115 PM EST Wednesday: Key Message 1: Unsettled weather returns late this weekend into early next week High pressure will retreat quickly off the East Coast Saturday night. Upstream, an upper trough moving out of the Pacific Northwest will phase with a digging Alberta clipper as it reaches the Intermountain West Friday night. This combined system will then phase with a second shortwave digging out of central Canada. The resulting evolution favors a Great Lakes cutter scenario with the surface low tracking well to our north and west this weekend. Although the deeper synoptic lift will pass north of the region, moisture advection from the Gulf will support a chance of light overrunning precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday ahead of the cold front. Forecast trends have shifted toward lower PoPs and QPF with this initial round. A brief wintry mix at the onset cannot be completely ruled out across the higher elevations of the NC mountains and portions of the northern Foothills north of I 40, where cold air damming and wet bulb cooling may hold temperatures near freezing. However, NBM probabilities for snow or freezing rain remain less than ten percent, and any wintry component would be brief and confined to the terrain if it occurs at all. Key Message 2: Increasing rain chances Monday and Tuesday with potential for lingering cold air There remains uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front on Monday, as solutions vary between a clean frontal passage and a stalled boundary lingering over the region. The NBM maintains low chance PoPs Monday, with precipitation expected to fall as rain. Confidence is increasing in a secondary wave of low pressure developing along the Gulf Coast and tracking northeast along the boundary Monday night into Tuesday. This wave would bring a more widespread and heavier round of rainfall to the region. With high pressure positioned to the northeast during this period, the setup may reinforce a cold air damming wedge across western NC. If the wedge persists or strengthens, elevated concern would arise for freezing rain potential in climatologically favored locations such as the northern mountains and northern Foothills. Current ensemble probabilities remain low, but the pattern warrants monitoring. In the wake of the departing wave, wrap around northwest flow snow may develop across the highest elevations late Tuesday or later, depending on the speed of the system. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as the low stratus deck from earlier has fully scattered and lifted across the terminals. Low-end gusts from the southwest are expected through this afternoon, ahead of an encroaching cold front. Winds will toggle to a northwesterly component behind the front as it pushes through the area throughout the evening. Gusty winds will accompany the front and gradual subside by the overnight period, with the exception of KAVL which will keep a gusty 20-30 kt wind through tomorrow. A few upper-level clouds will swing across the region during the daytime period Thursday, but dry and VFR conditions will prevail with some low-end gusts possible Thursday afternoon. Outlook: Drier and predominantly VFR conditions should linger through most of the week. A storm system will approach the area by the latter half of the weekend and will bring the next chance for flight restrictions. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for NCZ033-049-050. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...CAC SHORT TERM...JRK LONG TERM...JRK AVIATION...CAC