181 
FXUS64 KFWD 252346
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
546 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above-average and potentially record warm temperatures well
  into the 80s are expected through Saturday.

- There is an increasing signal for scattered showers and isolated
  storms along a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. No
  severe weather is expected.

- The Sunday cold front will bring below average temperatures to
  the region for the first half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) 
Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

It may be Christmas Day, but the weather feels more like early May 
or early October! Unseasonable warmth is expected to continue for 
the next few days as strong ridging prevails over the southern 
CONUS. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for 
most areas through Saturday, with a few locations even reaching 
close to 90 degrees Friday afternoon in western North Texas. Morning 
lows will generally be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. 

Temperature records will be threatened today and tomorrow at both of
our climate sites, DFW and Waco. Here's where we currently stand: 

- Today (Dec. 25th) -

DFW Airport:
Record High: 82 (set in 2021) 
Forecast High: 81 
Probability of tying or breaking the record: 50%

Waco: 
Record High: 82 (set in 2021) 
Forecast High: 80
Probability of tying or breaking the record: 30%

- Tomorrow (Dec. 26th) -

DFW Airport:
Record High: 83 (set in 2008) 
Forecast High: 83
Probability of tying or breaking the record: 90%

Waco: 
Record High: 84 (set in 2016) 
Forecast High: 82
Probability of tying or breaking the record: 40-50%

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday) 
Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Big changes will be on the horizon on Sunday, as a strong cold
front barrels through the Plains throughout the day. The front is
expected to arrive at our northern border (the Red River) by mid
afternoon and will move south through the area late Sunday 
afternoon through the evening. Prior to the front's arrival,
relatively warm and humid conditions are expected, with temperatures
climbing into the 70s to low 80s. Plenty of moisture will be in 
place ahead of the front, which will allow scattered showers to 
develop Sunday afternoon and evening as the front moves through 
the area. Rain chances will primarily be confined to areas near 
and east of the I-35 corridor. Instability will be very limited, 
keeping the potential for lightning low. However, an isolated 
lightning strike can't be ruled out with any of this activity. No 
severe weather is expected.

Much colder air will be ushered in behind the front, with Sunday
night lows falling into the upper 20s and 30s. Breezy north winds 
will allow wind chills to drop into the mid teens to mid 20s 
Monday morning. A chilly and blustery day is expected Monday, with
temperatures only climbing into the low to mid 40s beneath mostly
cloudy skies. The coldest temperatures are expected to occur
Monday night, with the latest forecast calling for overnight lows
in the 20s areawide. Temperatures will moderate through the
remainder of next week, with near or slightly above normal
temperatures returning on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

A mild, breezy and largely cloud free weather regime should 
persist across North Central Texas overnight and throughout the 
day on Friday. With upper level ridging and subsidence in place 
across the Southern Plains, skies will remain mostly clear 
overnight, aside from a few scattered high clouds streaming in 
from northern Mexico. As daybreak approaches on Friday, a bank of 
stratus cloudiness across Central Texas will move northward
through the 09-12z period, resulting in a period of MVFR 
conditions at Waco through at least 16z. A few shreds of this 
stratus shield may advance northward into the D10 area, yielding 
a period of SCT015 conditions at all TAF sites. However, guidance 
suggests that the probability of any ceilings within the Metroplex
should remain fairly low through late tonight and Friday morning.
Farther south, the ceilings at Waco should eventually mix up to 
broken VFR conditions, and ultimately mostly clear skies by around
20z on Friday. 

A surface trough of low pressure over West Texas should promote 
fairly brisk southerly winds on the order of 10-15 knots through 
at least 04z, before diminishing to around 07-08 knots between 
10-15z Friday. Surface winds will veer at all TAF sites to a 
southwest and eventually westerly direction after 15z Friday, as 
the surface trough takes on more of a northeast-southeast 
orientation across Oklahoma and West Texas. Speeds will average 
09-13 knots through the 18-00z period Friday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  83  63  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                63  82  64  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               63  80  63  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              60  83  58  81 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            61  81  61  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              63  83  63  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             62  82  63  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           65  83  66  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              63  83  63  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       58  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Bradshaw