National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2018-12-10 05:28 UTC

FXUS64 KFWD 100528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1128 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018


VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light west-
northwest winds around 5 kt through the day Monday. As the center
of the surface high moves to the east during the day, a light
southerly wind will become established by early Monday evening.
The threat for any widespread fog tonight appears low although
there could be some patches of reduced visibility off to the
northwest of the major airports overnight tonight.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 331 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018/
/Through Monday/

Although the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will remain
active with the passing of another disturbance, the lack of
moisture will lead to a calm night across North and Central Texas.
The northerly and northwesterly flow below 10,000 feet has 
shunted the moisture southward and mostly clear skies will 
persist across the region through the night. 

Model guidance, especially the NAM (and those derived from the
NAM), has been suggesting the formation of patchy fog for areas 
north of I-20 and west of I-35. At this point, it appears as if
the threat for fog is minimal given the stronger wind speeds just
above the surface. The NAM is also initializing with up to 1.25" 
of snow across our far northwestern counties even though no snow 
accumulated yesterday. The snow the NAM thinks is there acts as a 
source of moisture, and given there is no snow, there is no 
significant source of moisture.

Monday's temperatures will warm up slightly compared to today,
with mid 50s expected in the southwest and low 50s in the



.LONG TERM... /Issued 331 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018/
/Monday Night through Sunday/

Another cool night is expected Monday night as clear skies will 
allow for radiational cooling. An upper level system will begin 
to develop across the western US on Tuesday, resulting in 
increasing breezy southerly winds and an increase in cloud cover 
across our region. Moisture will return on Tuesday and Tuesday 
night as a result of southerly low level winds. 

As this shortwave moves quickly through the Southern Plains and 
North Texas on Wednesday, low rain chances will exist mainly east 
of the I-35 corridor, as well as isolated thunderstorms. An 
accompanying weak cold front will cause winds across our 
northwestern areas to shift to the north for a brief period of 
time before returning to the south. 

Meanwhile, a stronger upper level system will begin to dig across
the Rockies on Wednesday night. Models are in agreement on 
surface cyclogenesis occurring across NW Texas Thursday morning, 
increasing winds behind the associated cold front. As the front
moves through on Thursday, north winds ranging from 15-20 mph are
expected, with higher gusts possible. Showers will be possible as
the surface low slides across North Texas on Thursday, with wrap-
around rain along and north of the I-20 corridor. The highest rain
chances have been confined to our north and eastern counties. We'll
continue to monitor the potential for wintry weather along the 
Red River, but at this time it seems unlikely given the 
precipitation is expected to end prior to colder air arriving.

The upper level trough will be departing the area on Friday, and
breezy north winds will persist in its wake. The winds should
subside Friday evening as the upper level system pulls farther
east of the area. 

Temperatures will warm on Saturday as an upper level ridge moves
across the region. The extended models differ on the upper level
pattern near the end of the weekend, and this impacts the
potential for rain and the arrival of another front. For now, have
sided with a drier and warmer forecast which blends the GFS and 



Dallas-Ft. Worth    31  54  35  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                30  56  33  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Paris               30  50  31  56  43 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Denton              28  55  33  60  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            29  52  33  57  45 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              32  54  35  59  47 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             31  54  33  58  45 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           32  52  33  56  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              31  56  33  58  46 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Mineral Wells       29  55  33  60  45 /   0   0   0   0   0