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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2018-04-26 11:57 UTC

FXUS64 KFWD 261157 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
657 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---MIFG at Waco this morning. Potential for high-based
showers overnight at Metroplex TAFs. 

VFR is expected to prevail at the Metroplex TAFs through the
entire TAF cycle. Light westerly winds will become slightly
more northerly an hour or so after sunrise. While SKC is being
observed, high clouds will eventually filter in from the north and
for simplicity sake, have prevailed this condition. Winds may turn
to the northeast at times today, but speeds will likely mean 
north flow through just about the entire TAF cycle. Mid-level 
clouds should invade from the north this evening and into the 
overnight hours ahead of a compact upper level trough. Lift with 
this feature will likely produce some high level cloud cover 
around FL100 across Oklahoma that should slide south into North
Texas. While low levels will remain too dry for widespread 
rain at the surface, there is a consistent signal from hi-res 
guidance that supports a 4-6 hour window of VCSH at the Metroplex
TAFs. There will be the potential for turbulence beneath high 
based showers. The threat for thunder is non-zero, but too low to
include in the TAF at this time. North winds will be reinforced
through the day on Friday. 

For Waco, intermittent MIFG (shallow fog) is currently being 
observed per a call to the Waco Tower. For now, will add in a 
TEMPO group for occasional shallow fog with visibility in the 2-4
SM range. MIFG should dissipate quickly in the next 1 to 2 hours.
Thereafter, VFR should prevail with just a few high clouds 
streaming in from the north. Clouds around FL100 will also arrive 
during the mid to late evening hours.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 314 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

Warmer conditions are anticipated today as abundant sunshine will
allow for more seasonable temperatures. Low rain chances will
return late tonight into early Thursday as a second compact upper
low dives southward through the Plains. 

Pockets of very shallow fog will be possible this morning, but
the breezy winds aloft should keep visibility from falling too
far. We will monitor trends, however. Fog is most likely to occur in
sheltered/low-lying areas. Any fog that develops should dissipate
quickly after sunrise. Some lingering stratocumulus may graze 
eastern parts of the Red River Valley, but it should be mostly 
sunny with a few high clouds across most areas today. With large 
scale subsidence in place behind the upper low that resulted in 
Wednesday's rain, tranquil conditions are expected through the 
daytime hours. 

The trough axis currently across the northern High Plains will 
amplify and dive southward tonight. While low levels are moisture
starved courtesy of the recent frontal intrusion, mid and upper 
levels will moisten and a deck of altocumulus will invade the area
tonight from the north. Lapse rates also steepen and given the 
presence of decent lift, there will likely be some high-based 
convection that initially forms over Oklahoma and moves southward 
into North Texas. At this time, it's unclear as to whether or not 
enough instability aloft will be sufficient for thunderstorms. In
fact, it's even possible that much of what develops may not 
produce much in the way of measurable rainfall. For now I'll 
maintain a slight chance for showers and sprinkles in the forecast
given the uncertainty in the magnitude of instability. The best 
chance for very light rain will be north of Palestine to Cleburne 
to Graham line.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 314 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/
/Friday through Wednesday/

The end of the week and weekend are shaping up to be pretty nice
with near zero rain chances and seasonal temperatures. Friday
morning will start off with some passing cloud cover behind
another cold front, but skies will quickly clear and temperatures
will warm into the mid/upper 70s by afternoon. Mid level ridging
will dominate through the weekend, but by Saturday afternoon
southerly winds will become established and Gulf moisture will
begin a steady transition northward.

On Sunday a strong upper low will be over the western U.S. and
will slowly pivot eastward into Monday. As it does, a second
stronger shortwave will dig southward along the California coast
resulting in a generally large troughing pattern over most of the
western U.S. As this pattern amplifies through Tuesday, we'll see
strong pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies which will help 
strengthen southerly flow across North Texas and will accelerate 
moisture return into the region. An eastward expansion of a deep 
elevated mixed layer over much of Texas featuring steep lapse 
rates and a stout capping inversion should occur by Monday 
afternoon and continue through Wednesday. Given that the best 
forcing for ascent will still be tied closer to the upper low over
the southwest U.S., we should see mostly precipitation free days 
through Tuesday although we'll likely have an increase in cloud 
cover associated with the nocturnal low level jet and perhaps a 
few showers beneath the strong cap. The dryline may become active 
across parts of West Texas Monday and Tuesday, but given the 
expected convective inhibition in place across North Texas, the 
best chances for storms will be west of our forecast area.

By Wednesday, a strong shortwave is expected to eject into the
Plains and this may finally be sufficient for a better coverage of
thunderstorms across parts of North Texas. We'll continue to
monitor this over the coming days, as these slower moving upper
lows can often take longer to eject eastward than currently
forecast. In addition, it appears that more favorable parameters
for severe weather will be in place across the region through next



Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  55  77  52  81 /   0  20   0   0   0 
Waco                76  50  79  50  82 /   0  10   0   0   0 
Paris               69  51  73  48  77 /   0  20   0   0   0 
Denton              75  50  76  47  79 /   0  20   0   0   0 
McKinney            73  50  76  48  79 /   0  20   0   0   0 
Dallas              75  56  78  54  81 /   0  20   0   0   0 
Terrell             73  52  77  50  80 /   0  20   0   0   0 
Corsicana           74  52  79  52  81 /   0  20   0   0   0 
Temple              76  50  80  51  81 /   0  10   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       76  51  77  46  81 /   0  20   0   0   0