055 
FXUS64 KFWD 211745
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Quiet weather will continue with steadily warming temperatures 
  through the end of the week.

- An unsettled pattern is beginning to come into view for early to
  mid next week, with cooler and wetter weather possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

"High and dry" is the phrase of the day, as peaceful weather will
continue for the rest of this week. North and Central Texas
remains under a stout upper-level ridge that continues to drive
our subsident and rain-free pattern. Temperatures will remain
pleasant and seasonal as light easterly winds and very dry
dewpoints keep highs in the in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With a
lack of overnight cloud cover, radiational cooling should allow
for some brisk and crisp nights, with overnight lows in the 55-60
degree range across the region. Friday, while pleasant conditions
will continue for North and Central Texas, the upper-level closed
low that has been bringing rain and severe weather to Arizona 
today will begin to join the broad trough pattern and shift east.
This will set the stage for our next eventful weather going into
next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday) 
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Saturday, an upper-level closed low will slide northeast into the
CONUS via Baja California and integrate into the larger trough
pattern. This will intensify the already digging trough, and will
be the focus for the upcoming pattern shift. While long-range
guidance is coming into agreement on a cold front FROPA into North
and Central Texas on or around Tuesday of next week, there is
still much uncertainty on timing, intensity, and any rain chances
in the area. While there is a most likely outcome, some long-range
ensemble members still highlight a potential second, less likely
scenario. While both patterns will be discussed here, the bottom
line is that it will likely be a cooler, more unsettled week 
leading up to and on Halloween day, which may impact any planned 
outdoor activities.


In the most likely scenario, mid to long-range deterministic 
models (GFS, ECMWF) quickly lift the now integrated upper-level 
low up and into the Central and Northern Plains. This will flatten
the ridge that has been dominating the local pattern, as a new 
trough begins digging in the Pacific Northwest. The lifting upper-
level low will be able to send shortwave disturbances around the 
base of the trough and into the Southern Plains, priming our area
for a pattern shift. Given the quickly lifting trough, this 
scenario would favor a later, more slow moving cold front that 
sags south across the Red River from OK and into NTX by mid-next 
week. This would also favor a dryer pattern through the start of 
the week, with more isolated precip mainly confined to Northwest 
Texas.

Some of the ensembles have picked up on the possibility of 
another, less likely scenario (20-30% chance of occurrence), 
which would bring a more progressive cold front, as well as more 
widespread rain chances for North and Central Texas. LREF cluster 
guidance and GEFS ensembles continue to be bullish on a scenario 
that involves the upper-level trough shifting northeast much more 
slowly, and continuing to dig through the Central Plains, instead 
of lifting quickly north. With the slower pattern, a weak ridge 
would be likely to develop across the Mountain West, and would 
help intensify a progressive FROPA from late next Monday into 
Tuesday. Rain chances along this front would be more widespread 
with stronger upslope flow ahead of FROPA, with a low (less than 
30%) chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two. Again, this 
scenario is the less likely of the two, and fall climatology for 
NTX/CTX tends to favor a quickly lifting trough with a weaker, 
sagging cold front behind in its wake. 

Regardless of either scenario playing out, a more unstable and
cooler pattern will be on tap going into mid-week and leading up
to Halloween, as highs area wide will be in the lower 70s, with
lows in the 50s. More details and specifics will become clearer as
short to mid-range guidance begins to come in over the next few
days, so make sure to stay updated with the forecast!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period. 
Winds will continue to remain very calm (less than 6 KTS) and VRB 
at times, with the prevailing flow still E-ESE (090-120). While 
some high clouds (FEW250) may overspread D10 after 18Z Thursday, 
there will be no operational impacts. Winds overnight will 
continue to stay calm and E-ESE. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  83  60  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                55  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               53  82  54  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              54  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            55  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              60  84  60  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             54  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           55  82  55  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              55  84  55  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       55  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Davis
LONG TERM....Davis
AVIATION...Davis