National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2019-02-23 21:31 UTC


460 
FXUS64 KFWD 232131
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

The strong shortwave responsible for this morning's storms and
strong afternoon winds will be departing the region overnight. As
it does so, wind speeds will begin to decrease as the near-surface
atmosphere becomes decoupled from the stronger winds aloft. 
Northwesterly winds will prevail through the night as a secondary 
front makes its way through the region around sunset. 

Mostly clear skies, a building surface high pressure, and calmer 
winds will yield temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than last 
night. Temperatures will range between the lower 30s in the
northwest to the lower 40s across the Brazos Valley. 

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday through Saturday/

High pressure will settle in across North Texas on Sunday with
winds diminishing to around 5 mph under mostly sunny skies.
Despite it being cooler with highs in the upper 50s to near 60, it
should be a nice day with the sunny skies. 

The weather through the upcoming week will be relatively quiet 
with only a few low chances for rainfall and the potential for
colder air by the end of the week. We'll remain in a relatively
weak zonal pattern through mid week with the more active polar
branch of the jet remaining in Canada. The surface high that
settles in tomorrow will spread to the east on Monday and we
should see a return to southerly flow and gradually warming
temperatures. Moisture return will be slow given the lack of any
significant deepening surface low across the Plains, but by late
Monday night a weak disturbance embedded in the westerly flow will
approach the region. This should be enough to allow southerly flow
off the surface to increase and low clouds to overspread the
region. As this disturbance swings through on Tuesday, low rain
chances will be possible mainly across our southeast counties
where the better moisture will be located.

We'll hang on to some low rain chances Wednesday and Thursday
areawide as another shortwave swings through the northern Plains
and sends a cold front into the region likely on Wednesday night.
It's a little unclear with respect to how strong this initial
front will be given the lack of more amplified flow aloft, but
there appears to be sufficient consensus among the guidance that
some type of cold front will be in the region. Moisture and
instability also remain in question, so we'll just mention showers
for now, but the potential for some thunder may exist as we get
closer.

Otherwise, the blocking pattern over the western U.S. will break
down late week with a strong trough swinging through the Plains on
Friday. This should send a strong cold front southward just in
time for next weekend.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1204 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/
/18Z TAFs/

Main concern today will be related to the strong west to east
winds that will affect all airport runways across North and
Central Texas. With this morning's cold front pushing all low 
level moisture away from the region, no more precipitation is 
expected through this forecast cycle. 

Winds are gradually becoming more gusty as momentum transfer
becomes enhanced due to the warming surface temperatures. This is
expected to continue through the day, leading to westerly wind 
gusts as high as 40 mph through around sunset. Any north/south 
oriented runways will experience moderate crosswinds, potentially
causing impacts to regional air traffic through the afternoon. 

After the sun sets, surface winds will decouple from the much
higher winds above the surface, leading to winds generally below
15 mph across the region. As a surface ridge of high pressure
gradually moves overhead, wind speeds will veer and become 
northeasterly by the afternoon. Expect a thin veil of cirrus to
continue, but remain VFR through the entirety of this forecast. 

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    38  59  37  63  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                37  60  37  63  45 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               36  57  35  61  41 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              34  58  35  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            34  58  35  62  43 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              38  60  37  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             36  59  36  63  45 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Corsicana           38  60  37  63  47 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              36  60  38  63  47 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Mineral Wells       33  60  34  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ091>093-100>104-
115>120-129>133-141.

&&

$$

08/91