National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2018-06-19 04:43 UTC


156 
FXUS64 KFWD 190443
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1143 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018


.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

Other than a few isolated showers across parts of Central Texas,
it remains quiet across most of the region. The main concern over
the next several hours will be the low cloud cover. MVFR cigs are
spreading north and west tonight with cigs rapidly dropping to
around 1500 ft. Expect most areas will be MVFR around or shortly
after midnight and continuing well into the morning hours on
Tuesday. An additional wave of ascent and scattered showers should
spread inland from the Gulf during the morning hours, but most of
this activity is likely to remain well removed from the major
airports. We'll include some VCSH at all sites around midday and
continue this into the early evening hours before activity should
begin to diminish. Another round of MVFR cigs is expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

Dunn

&&

.UPDATE... /Issued 934 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/
Evening radar imagery shows a marked decrease in the amount of
convection across central and north Texas compared to several
hours ago. Satellite imagery also shows a lack of vertical cloud
development extending across our southeast counties across most of
the CWA. This appears to be co-located with an area of moderate
downglide in the 300-310K layer, which is common on the outer
periphery of stronger tropical convection. Given that the
environment appears to be more unfavorable for additional
convection through the overnight hours, we've decided to lower
PoPs across most of the region through tonight. We'll maintain
some 20-30 PoPs across our far southern counties closer to the
better moisture and where some ongoing convection persists. This
band of downglide should continue to move westward through tonight
with better ascent spreading into central and north Texas on
Tuesday, corresponding to an increase in coverage of scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms. We've also lowered overnight lows
by a couple of degrees despite an expected increase in cloud
cover, mainly based on current readings in the lower 80s. No other
changes needed at this time.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 328 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/
/Rest of Today and Tonight/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through sunset across mostly Central Texas and parts of North
Texas. The highest concentration will be along and east of 
Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 20 and activity should 
rapidly diminish around and/or shortly after sunset. Overnight, 
will keep low chances for rain across our southern counties with a
slight increase in rain chances before sunrise. Another surge of 
low level moisture may arrive across the southern counties before 
sunrise resulting in an increase of shower and thunderstorm 
coverage. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible with
any showers and storms.

Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies and east to southeast winds
at 5-15 mph. Overnight lows will likely be similar to this 
morning's readings and have gone about 1-2 degrees above guidance.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 328 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/
The tropical low near the Texas Coastal Bend will be the main 
player in our weather through Wednesday. Unfortunately models are 
still split on the ultimate direction of where the primary low-mid
level circulation center will track as it will be sandwiched 
between two subtropical high cells to its east and west. The 
ECMWF and a couple of the high res models take the low on a westerly
and then southwesterly track into Mexico (which means less rain 
for our area) while the majority of the guidance takes it more 
northwesterly and and then shears it apart across Central Texas 
Wednesday as a shortwave trough in the upper level westerlies 
tracks across Oklahoma. For now I'm inclined to favor the latter 
set of more northerly solutions, primarily because the low center 
will tend to stay attached to the most vigorous convection, and it
is more likely that the vigorous convection will occur where 
there is a feed of warm/moist air off the Gulf. 

For the details of the forecast...it is likely that a large area
of convection will develop overnight between Corpus Christi and 
Houston and track generally northward into the southern and 
southeastern counties by daybreak. Activity will tend to diminish 
in intensity by mid to late morning as it becomes too far removed 
from the supply of Gulf instability. The majority of the morning 
rain should stay east of I-35 and south of I-20, and we do not 
anticipate average rainfall amounts to be more than a half inch,
but isolated amounts near 2 inches will be possible. Widespread 
clouds in the southeastern half of the region will keep high 
temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A little more sunshine and 
daytime heating farther to the northwest will allow convective 
temperatures in the upper 80s to be met and result in a few more 
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing northwest of a 
Temple to Paris line. While some locally heavy rain will be 
possible with this activity, the coverage and average areal 
amounts will remain low. 

There will be another lull in the rain activity Tuesday evening,
but once again convection should increase after midnight across
southeast Texas and move north into the southeastern zones by
Wednesday morning. The upper level weakness or deformation axis is
forecast to remain roughly from Paris to Temple. To the east of
this axis will be where the best chances of rain will occur with
PoPs above 50% and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. To the
west, temperatures will reach the upper 80s to near 90 and 
scattered showers and storms are likely to develop with afternoon 
heating. 

As a shortwave moves across Oklahoma, it will drag a cold front
southeast into the region by Wednesday evening. The GFS remains
the most aggressive in developing strong convection along the
frontal boundary and plowing it southeast into the CWA Wednesday 
night. Model spread with this solution is very high (with the 
ECMWF the driest) so we will continue to keep PoPs in the low 
chance category Wednesday night. By Thursday the upper level 
trough axis and highest moisture will be moving off to the east 
so rain chances will be decreasing. Meanwhile temperatures will 
be going up with highs back in the 90s for most areas. 

Generally hot and dry weather will prevail Friday into early next
week as a weak ridge builds over the state. Highs will again 
reach the mid to upper 90s for most locations. 

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  86  74  87  75 /  10  40  20  50  30 
Waco                74  83  74  85  74 /  20  60  30  50  30 
Paris               73  87  72  84  73 /  10  40  20  60  50 
Denton              75  87  74  87  73 /  10  40  20  40  30 
McKinney            75  86  73  86  74 /  10  40  20  50  40 
Dallas              76  87  76  87  76 /  10  40  20  50  30 
Terrell             75  86  74  84  73 /  10  50  30  60  40 
Corsicana           74  83  74  83  73 /  20  60  40  60  40 
Temple              73  82  74  83  74 /  20  60  40  60  30 
Mineral Wells       74  86  71  89  73 /  10  40  20  30  30 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$