National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2018-10-20 17:39 UTC

FXUS64 KFWD 201739 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

/18z TAFs/

The much-awaited push of drier low-level air is occurring across
the I-20 corridor, and cigs are rapidly scattering as a result.
While a few BKN FL015 filaments remain, we'll start all of the
18z Metroplex TAFs off VFR as any low cloud cover will be very
short-lived. At Waco, MVFR conditions will continue for several
more hours as the drier air upstream will take some time to work
across Central Texas. 

Breezy north-northeasterly winds around 13-15 kts are expected 
today, but will decrease this evening as the boundary layer
decouples. There is an outside chance of some patchy and very
shallow radiation fog development overnight, but the main signal
for this is displaced off to the south and west of the area
TAF sites, and surface winds seem high enough to curtail 
widespread development. 



.UPDATE... /Issued 1103 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018/
Quick update this morning to increase sky cover through the rest
of the morning and into the early-afternoon based on upstream
observations and visible satellite imagery. Our morning sounding
revealed the presence of a nearly saturated layer up to around 900
mb (2-3 kft) which resulted in pockets of dense fog. This has
since mixed out, but low cloud cover remains entrenched across a
good chunk of the region. Much drier air is just now pushing south
of the Red River, however, and this should scour out the remaining
low clouds across the Metroplex by about 1 PM or so, with
additional clearing pushing south of I-20 thereafter. While some
passing high cloud will muddy up the sky a bit, most of us across
North Texas will see the sun once again. 

Unfortunately, cloud cover should remain a bit more stubborn
through the afternoon across Central Texas. As a result, I've
nudged high temperatures down a few degrees with the anticipation
of reduced insolation today. PoPs, however, have been cleared from
the CWA as ascent has pushed south and east of the region. Updated
products have been transmitted. 



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 305 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

Parts of North and Central Texas will have to contend with some
fog this morning. Otherwise, the main headline, after a week of 
high rain chances, will be the dry conditions for much of the
area. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s combined with a brisk north
wind will make it feel a bit more like fall across much of the
region (as opposed to winter).

The last vestiges of light rain activity continues to exit the 
region this morning as dry air aloft invades from the north per 
RAP mesoanalysis and upstream WSR-88D VWPs. Despite the dry air 
aloft, saturated soils combined with clearing skies have supported
the development of some radiation fog, especially north of I-20. 
Brisk winds aloft (helps to keep the PBL overturned) in 
conjunction with some lingering mid/upper level clouds should be 
just enough to mitigate widespread dense fog formation across
North and Central Texas. A few locales may still occasionally dip
down below 1/4 mile, but this should be a very isolated 
occurrence and so I'll forgo the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory 
at this time. If widespread 1/4 mile visibility develops, an advisory
may be necessary. 

A few lingering rain showers will be possible through noon today,
mainly across the Brazos Valley. It's possible, however, that the
airmass is becoming pretty subsident so additional rain even 
prior to 18 UTC may be unlikely. With the drier air in place, the 
diurnal temperature range will be a bit larger and highs should 
top out in the upper 60s to low 70s. 925mb winds will remain 
elevated and with the clear and dry conditions, some of this 
momentum should be transfered down to the surface. This should 
equate to sustained north winds of around 10 to 15 MPH with 
perhaps some gusts up to 25 MPH.

Tonight should be quite tranquil and a little chilly for some.
Surface winds should relax as sky conditions continue to improve.
Similar to Saturday morning, winds aloft may hinder the
development of widespread dense fog development and in fact, the 06
UTC HRRR advertises just about unrestricted visibilities across
most of North and Central Texas. We'll need to keep monitor of
this as soils remain wet and may be the overriding factor with
respect to fog development. Overnight low temperatures will likely
fall into the 40s and 50s areawide. Depending on the magnitude of
dry air advection, a few spots dipping into the upper 30s isn't 
out of the realm of possibility. 



.LONG TERM... /Issued 305 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018/
/Sunday through Next Weekend/

An upper level ridge will work its way east across the Southern
Plains on Sunday while a trough batters the East Coast and an 
upper low deepens over California. At the surface, North and 
Central Texas will reside on the southwest edge of a dominant 
ridge centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The resulting 
northeast winds will keep a seasonably cool continental airmass in
place over the area with Sunday afternoon highs in the mid and 
upper 60s followed by lows in the 40s. Increasing clouds 
associated with a weak upper level disturbance will provide even 
cooler conditions on Monday with high temperatures topping out in 
the lower and middle 60s. Scattered showers will accompany the 
disturbance but will be confined to the southern third of the 
forecast area where just enough moisture will be present to 
produce precipitation.

The West Coast Low will open up and advance slowly eastward 
across the Desert Southwest during the first half of the workweek.
Moisture return will be modest at best ahead of the system, 
mainly because the low is progged to dampen fairly rapidly on 
Wednesday as it moves into the Southern Plains. With moisture, 
lift and instability being so limited, we have sided with the 
drier half of guidance regarding precipitation, and Wednesday 
POPs have therefore been lowered. There will still be enough cloud
cover and precipitation to keep temperatures on the cool side, 
with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s expected.

Models continue to generate a plume of mid and upper level 
moisture streaming in from the Pacific Friday through next 
weekend. However, guidance is now agreeing that this moisture 
will be shunted southward by the position of a weak positively
tilted trough extending from the Great Lakes to South Texas. The
subsequent placement of the jet stream would carry this moisture
east-northeast across Mexico then along the Gulf Coast, which is 
where the storm track and best rain chances will occur. This means
that after the shot of precipitation around mid week, we will 
likely return to dry and pleasant weather (barring any unforeseen 
pattern changes) for next weekend into early the following week.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  47  64  48  63 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Waco                67  50  67  48  61 /  10   0   0   5  10 
Paris               69  42  61  43  61 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Denton              69  42  64  46  63 /   0   0   0   0   5 
McKinney            68  43  63  45  62 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Dallas              70  48  65  49  64 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Terrell             70  47  64  46  61 /   5   0   0   5   5 
Corsicana           68  50  65  48  62 /  10   0   0   5   5 
Temple              67  53  67  49  60 /  10   0   0   0  30 
Mineral Wells       69  43  65  47  65 /   0   0   0   0   5