182 
FXUS64 KFWD 260637
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
137 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures are forecast through Thursday, with highs in
  the 90s for most of the area.

- Isolated showers and storms are possible today and tomorrow, but
  rain chances are highest along the Red River.

- Increasing rain chances and intermittent cooler weather return
  to the forecast later this week and this weekend.
 
&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tomorrow/

A cold front has finally moved into North Texas, but is taking its
time moving south since we are well displaced from the high
pressure center and cooler air. Really, it is more of a backdoor 
cold front since we are on the far western extent of the cool 
airmass. We expect it to slowly ooze south this morning into the 
afternoon, with an east-northeasterly wind shift extending further
south than the cooler air. Slightly cooler air just to our north
is being reinforced by a healthy band of mid-level cloud cover 
and ascent, helping to produce widespread rain across West Texas 
and Oklahoma. The best lift and precip coverage should remain to 
our north, but the mid-level cloud cover will extend further south 
into our forecast area. Where expansive cloud cover hangs around
through peak heating and how far south the front is able to trek
today will largely drive our forecast for this afternoon. The
guidance, as expected, is having a poor time resolving the
location of the front. The latest high-resolution guidance has an
8-11 degree spread for portions of North Texas, generally north 
of I-20/30 for this afternoon's high temperatures. We decided to 
continue with the NBM with our temperature forecast given the high
uncertainty and relatively low impact, outside of the air feeling
somewhat pleasant versus hot and humid.

As briefly alluded to above, a vast majority of the precipitation
should remain to our north where the stronger mid-level lift
resides. A few light showers/virga is expected to fall out of 
the mid-level clouds across North Texas this morning, with the 
best chance of measurable rainfall being along the Red River
before about 9 am. A relative lull in precip activity is expected 
in the late morning into early afternoon before isolated to very 
widely scattered showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, develop 
with the aid of surface heating. The most likely areas for precip 
this afternoon are near any confluent wind areas (generally
between DFW and Waco). To account for this we added 10-20 PoPs 
across most of the area this afternoon, but even just 20% coverage
is probably over-selling it a bit.

The front is expected to be somewhere south of I-20 by tonight and
will start to slowly lift north through the early morning hours. A
passing shortwave trough and weak area of isentropic ascent 
between ~850-700 mb across Eastern Oklahoma and Northeast Texas 
should result in scattered showers in the early morning hours 
Wednesday. As we head into the afternoon, the front should be 
draped across the northeast part of our area, with warm/humid air 
overspreading a vast majority of the forecast area. We're
forecasting highs in the low-mid 90s with heat index values a few  
degrees higher. Unfortunately, our forecasts from last last week 
and even this weekend of highs in the 80s by mid-week do not look 
to be panning out. If you like the long-shot, the NAM MOS guidance
is still on the cool side (mid 80s), but that's grasping at straws 
at this point.

There is a 10-20% chance of isolated to widely scattered showers 
and storms developing in the open warm sector Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast soundings indicate a moist/unstable airmass with little 
capping, but the lack of a focused source of ascent will keep the 
coverage of precip on the low end. The strongest low-level ascent 
(near the front in the NE part of our forecast area) should be 
largely stabilized by the earlier precipitation.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Onward/

Thursday's forecast is not looking good if you are hoping for a 
rush of cool air. Most of the guidance now has the front lifting 
completely out of our forecast area and a new low pressure center 
developing to our west. This would leave us, not only in the open 
warm sector, but under a mid-level ridge and southwest surface 
winds to boot. As a result, our temperature forecast now has highs
in the upper 90s for most of the area with heat index values in 
the low 100s. We should stay below Heat Advisory criteria, but how
deep the boundary layer mixes out on Thursday will largely 
determine the peak heat index.

Our main hope is that a series of shortwave troughs circling the
ridge (centered near/over the Rio Grande valley) are able to break
it down late in the week and this weekend to allow the cold front
and wet pattern to move into North and Central Texas. This could
happen as early as Thursday night, or it could happen over the
weekend. The most astute weather watchers will notice that one of
these shortwave troughs rounding the high is Tropical Storm
Juliette in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The mid-level vorticity
remnants of this system are progged to move into the Southern
Plains this weekend, and are usually pretty good at breaking down
ridges. However, as you can see by the vast changes to the
forecast in the early part of the week...our confidence about 
whats going to happen is still quite low. Regardless this forecast 
discussion is our current thinking given the latest trends in the 
data.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

A cold front is bisecting D10 at this hour, slowly moving south.
For the D10 terminals...we generally expect ENE flow (080-060) to 
prevail for most of the TAF period. There is potential, roughly a 
40% chance) that the winds become out of the ESE (090-110) for a 
few hours this morning, from 14-18Z before returning solidly out
of the ENE this afternoon/evening.

At ACT...the winds should stay out of the ESE early in the TAF 
period, becoming light and somewhat variable (020-120) shortly
after sunrise this morning. A more steady ENE wind is expected 
by late this afternoon before returning out of the ESE in the 
evening.

An expansive mid-level cloud deck is over the region that will 
stick around for the next 24-36 hours. Light rain showers are 
possible across North Texas early this morning, but was omitted 
from the TAFs since it should have little to no operational
impact. Weak confluence near the front/wind shift this afternoon 
should support isolated showers/storms this afternoon, mainly 
across Central Texas. We added VCSH to the ACT TAF to account for 
this.

Bonnette

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  91  72  91  77 /  10  20  20  20   5 
Waco                73  95  74  93  75 /   0  10  10  20   5 
Paris               70  82  67  84  70 /  20  30  30  20   5 
Denton              71  89  69  92  75 /  10  20  20  10   5 
McKinney            72  88  69  89  75 /  10  20  20  10   5 
Dallas              76  92  72  93  78 /  10  20  20  20   5 
Terrell             72  91  69  91  73 /  10  20  10  20   0 
Corsicana           74  95  73  93  75 /   0  20  10  20   5 
Temple              71  95  72  94  73 /   0  10  10  20   5 
Mineral Wells       71  92  69  93  74 /  10  20  10  20   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$