668 
FXUS64 KFWD 060705
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
205 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of North Texas
  through 8 PM today for afternoon heat indices ranging from
  105-108 degrees.
 
- Isolated thunderstorms (10-30% chance) are possible along and
  south of US-84 this afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected across
  much of North and Central Texas this week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Strong ridging over the Great Plains will continue to promote
surface high pressure and synoptic scale subsidence across the
region today into tonight. As such, most across North and Central
Texas will remain hot and relatively cloud free. Temperatures will
be above normal again today in the upper-90s and lower-100s. The
return of more robust boundary layer moisture will bring very hot
heat indices across the area this afternoon and evening ranging
from 102-108. Locations where widespread feels like temperatures
of 105-108 are expected are included in a Heat Advisory through 8
PM today.

Further south (generally along and south of the US-84 corridor),
isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance) are expected to
develop during the afternoon hours. These low rain chances are
attributed to the presence of a weak upper-level cutoff low over
Southeast Texas and the northwestern Gulf. The development of 
these storms and upper-level clouds from this disturbance should 
keep highs closer to normal in the low and mid-90s. While no 
severe weather is expected, the stronger storms will bring the 
potential for strong gusty winds and frequent lightning, so be 
weather aware in this area especially if you have outdoor Labor 
Day plans.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...Monday through Wednesday...

The ridge currently over the Great Plains and southeastern CONUS 
will continue to build to near record levels for this time of year
with 500 hPa heights potentially exceeding 595 dm. This will keep
conditions dry and temperatures well above normal in the 
upper-90s and lower-100s across all of North and Central Texas. 
The expansion of this ridge will also push the subtle upper-level
disturbance responsible for low storm chances on Sunday further 
south into the Gulf. As such, the only potential for rain Monday
through Wednesday will be for a stray shower or thunderstorm (10%
chance) in the Brazos Valley during peak diurnal heating.

By the latter half of the upcoming work week, the ridging over the
Great Plains and southeastern CONUS will deamplify and give way 
to more zonal flow as a trough traverses from the Northern Rockies
into the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. There is a weak signal
from extended guidance that a cold front may approach the region
from the north sometime Thursday or Friday, but this scenario remains
uncertain at best with substantial inter-model and run-to-run 
variability. Regardless, weak height falls attributed to the de- 
amplification of this week's ridge along with a very humid airmass
in place at the surface will result in a very low chance (10-20%)
for a few stray showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours Thursday into next weekend. Regardless of whether 
this storm potential is realized or not, temperatures will likely 
remain 7-10 degrees above normal through the end of this forecast 
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

There is a low chance (10-20%) of very isolated showers and
thunderstorms along the US-84 corridor (KACT) between 18Z and 00Z
today. While there is the low potential of brief terminal impacts
to KACT, probabilities do not warrant inclusion into the TAFs at
this time. Further north into D10, south/southeasterly flow at
7-13 knots and VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites
through the duration of this forecast period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  79 101  81 /  10   0   0   0 
Waco                98  76 100  77 /  10  10   0   0 
Paris              100  76 100  75 /  20  10  10   0 
Denton             101  77 101  77 /  10   0   0   0 
McKinney            99  77  99  77 /  10  10   0   0 
Dallas             102  81 102  81 /  10   0   0   0 
Terrell            101  76 101  76 /  10   0   0   0 
Corsicana           99  76 100  76 /  10  10  10   0 
Temple              95  75  99  75 /  30  10  10   0 
Mineral Wells      101  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for 
TXZ091>095-102>107-118>123-133>135-146.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah