144 
FXUS64 KFWD 222322
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
622 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

- Rain chances return Thursday and continue through Sunday 
  morning. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding could occur late 
  Friday into early Saturday as 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally
  higher amounts are possible. 

- A few strong or severe storms could also occur late Friday into
  early Saturday, with a low threat for damaging winds and hail. 
  The tornado threat appears very low. 

- Scattered storms may continue to develop much of the day
  Saturday. Some of these storms will be capable of producing
  hail.

- Another strong system will bring low rain chances early next
  week with cooler, fall-like temperatures returning behind a 
  strong cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Quiet weather will continue today, but a period of active weather
is just on the horizon. Nice weather is expected the remainder of
the day with a light southerly breeze, sunny skies, and afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. 

Moisture will be transported northward tonight as strengthening
low-level winds tap into Gulf moisture to our south. Moisture
return will continue into Thursday, with a warm front expected to
lift northward throughout the day. Isolated showers may develop 
across North Texas Thursday morning along a moisture gradient, but
the potential is only around 10-20% at this time. Temperatures 
will be a few degrees warmer Thursday afternoon, with highs in the
80s areawide. 

By late Thursday afternoon, a few CAMs are hinting at a low 
potential for storm development north of the warm front in North 
Texas as a weak upper level disturbance passes overhead. 20% PoPs 
will exist for most areas along the Red River, and any development
would most likely be near/west of I-35 and north of Highway 380. 
If storms develop, some of them could be strong with a potential 
for hail and gusty winds. An isolated severe storm can't be 
entirely ruled out, but this will depend on how much 
destabilization occurs prior to any storm development - which is 
not well agreed upon between the models at this time. Later 
Thursday night, height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent 
will result in the development of showers and storms across 
western portions of the state. Some of this activity will move 
into western North Texas late Thursday night into early Friday 
morning. Marginal instability, steepening lapse rates, and around 
40 knots or so of 0-6 km shear will support at least an isolated 
threat for strong to severe storms, with hail and gusty winds 
expected to be the main hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into Friday morning
across North Texas from the overnight activity. This round of 
showers and storms should eventually dissipate, but a leading 
shortwave ahead of an upper low near the Four Corners may provide 
enough ascent to kick off isolated to scattered storms across 
portions of the area throughout the day. Storm coverage on Friday 
is still a bit uncertain, with many of the CAMs now depicting a 
generally rain-free day. If this trend continues, PoPs may need to
be lowered a bit from the NBM. 

The cutoff low will dig southward into New Mexico throughout the 
day Friday, eventually taking a more easterly trajectory heading 
into Friday night. A surface low will approach out of West Texas 
by the evening, allowing a pre-frontal trough/Pacific front to set
up near our western zones. As the upper low nears the Texas 
Panhandle, widespread showers and storms will blossom near and 
ahead of the surface low and trough/front sometime Friday
evening/night. This activity will gradually move east through the
overnight hours into Saturday morning, with one or more clusters 
of storms expected to develop. Up to 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, 
steep lapse rates, and sufficient deep layer shear will support an
isolated threat for severe storms, with hail and damaging winds 
expected to be the main hazards. However, the areal extent of any
severe weather threat will largely depend on both the location 
and magnitude of the axis of instability which remains a bit
uncertain at this time. Areas west of I-35 and along/south of I-20
would likely see the highest potential for an isolated severe
storm overnight.

Heavy rainfall will become the main concern Friday night through
Saturday morning, as slow storm motions, cell training, and
abnormally high PWATs will result in efficient rainfall
accumulation. Expected rainfall totals haven't changed much with 
the latest data, with widespread 1-3" totals expected. There is
still quite a bit of spread in the upper and lower end rainfall
amounts - with some locations (mainly in western North/Central
Texas) seeing as little as 0.5" of rain and isolated areas (10%
chance) east of I-35 potentially picking up around 4" of rain or 
so. While we're still sitting at a significant rainfall deficit
for the month of October, isolated flooding will be possible
Friday night into Saturday morning with this round of showers and
storms, especially in any urban areas. 

Widespread showers and storms will exit the area sometime Saturday
morning. However, there are still some timing discrepancies 
between models, with the NAM noticeably slower than other 
guidance. Unfortunately, we won't be in the clear behind this 
round of showers and storms, as scattered showers and storms will 
remain possible throughout the day Saturday as the upper low 
continues to provide strong ascent overhead. Additionally, 
lingering elevated instability due to steep lapse rates aloft will
result in a threat for isolated hail with any of this activity. 
Ensure you monitor the weather throughout the day on Saturday, 
especially if you have any outdoor plans.

Rain chances will finally come to an end Saturday night or Sunday
as the upper low departs to the east. Pleasant weather will close
out the weekend, with Sunday afternoon highs mostly in the 70s. A
brief warm up is expected on Monday, but another cold front is
slated to arrive late Monday into Tuesday, bringing cooler air
back to the region. 12Z guidance continues to back off on the
potential for storms with this system, keeping most of the ascent
to our north. The current forecast advertises some low end PoPs 
across East and Central Texas early to mid week, but chances are 
looking slim overall. Another front may arrive mid-week, 
reinforcing the cooler air across North and Central Texas. 
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that fall weather will be 
here to stay next week and perhaps into early parts of November 
with no significant potential for rain on the horizon beyond this 
weekend's system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) 
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of this evening
and most of the overnight at the terminals. MVFR cigs will likely 
approach KACT after 12Z Thursday morning for a few hours, thus the
inclusion of a 13Z-16Z TEMPO group. There is a less than 20% 
chance for MVFR cigs in D10, but FEW to SCT cigs at 1-2kft for a 
couple hours in the morning will be possible. A brief rain shower
or two within D10 will also be possible during the day, but 
chances for measurable precipitation through Thursday evening at
the Metroplex terminals will remain below 10%. Greater rain 
chances will arrive after this TAF period. Otherwise, expect 
southeast winds generally below 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  84  66  81 /   0  10  30  50 
Waco                60  87  66  84 /   0  10  10  40 
Paris               51  80  59  78 /   0  10  20  30 
Denton              55  83  63  79 /   0  20  40  50 
McKinney            55  81  63  80 /   0  20  30  50 
Dallas              60  84  66  82 /   0  10  30  50 
Terrell             55  84  62  82 /   0  20  20  40 
Corsicana           59  86  66  84 /   0  10  10  30 
Temple              60  87  66  83 /   0  10   0  40 
Mineral Wells       58  88  64  82 /   0  10  40  60 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...55