977 
FXUS64 KFWD 241113
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
513 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above-average and potentially record warm temperatures well
  into the 80s are expected through Saturday.

- A strong cold front will bring strong north winds and more
  winter-like temperatures back to the region starting Sunday 
  through the early part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Tonight will be another mild and humid night with lows and dew
points in the 60s. Cloud cover and areas of fog will build in from
the southeast overnight tonight, bringing reduced visibilities to
much of Central Texas, East Texas and the Brazos Valley. Most 
will see visibilities in the 1-3 mile range, though more isolated 
areas could see reductions in visibility down below a mile. The 
northern edge of these clouds/fog should reach the I-20 corridor 
by around day break Wednesday morning lending uncertainty as to 
whether those in the DFW Metroplex will wake up to sun or clouds. 
The most likely scenario will generally keep those south of 
Highway 183 cloudier, and those north of 183 more clear. However, 
given the uncertainty in the northward progression of the 
overnight clouds/fog, don't be surprised if there are patchy areas
of fog and low clouds in the entire DFW Metroplex through mid- 
morning. The abundant moisture and cloud cover moving in will also
keep overnight lows in the low and mid 60s, potentially exceeding
daily record warm overnight low temperatures by 1-3 degrees 
(meaning no other night this same calendar day in current 
climatological records will be as warm as tonight).

Any cloud cover that develops overnight should burn off by the
afternoon, paving the way for another exceptionally warm day for
late December. Though high clouds moving in from the west may
knock down afternoon highs by 1-2 degrees, most everyone across
the region will be in the low 80s. Even with these temperatures
being 25+ degrees above average for this time of year, we will
still fall short of the daily record high on Christmas Eve by 5-7
degrees.

Christmas Eve night into Christmas day will nearly be a carbon
copy weather wise, with clouds developing southeast to northwest,
mild and humid overnight with lows in the 60s, and highs again
expected to climb into the lower 80s. Daily records on Christmas
Day look to potentially be tied or broken, as these are also in
the low 80s. Due to more abundant sun and a somewhat drier
boundary layer to the west, locations in the Big Country may even
warm into the mid 80s for Christmas Day. The one caveat to these
warmer temperatures just like Christmas Eve will be the presence 
of upper-level clouds being shunted off to the east from a strong
Pacific Coast storm system. Should these clouds be thicker than 
anticipated, we may see high temperatures a few degrees colder 
than forecast (still ~20 degrees above average).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Near-record to record warmth will continue through Saturday with
daily highs in the 80s. Friday looks to be the hottest day of this
December heat with widespread highs in the mid and upper 80s. 
There has been a persistent signal of some sort of dryline feature
setting up across the Big Country, bringing dew points down into 
the upper 40s (humidity into the 20s) west of a line roughly from 
Gainesville to Comanche. The combination of the dry air in place, 
clear skies, and southwest winds (added warming component from 
adiabatic compression off the Mexican Plateau) will set the stage 
for a few locations in the Big Country to potentially hit 90 
degrees (10-15% chance); exceptionally rare for late December in 
North Texas. We will keep monitoring any potential for upper- 
level clouds to inhibit these kinds of temperatures, but as of now
would not be surprised to see a few 90s pop up in surface 
observations Friday afternoon in the aforementioned area.

Saturday, while cooler than Friday, should still be very warm with
on more day of highs in the low and mid 80s before a strong cold
front sweeps through the area Sunday morning. With the timing of
the front trending a little slower than in previous forecast
cycles, Sunday should still be an above average day temperature
wise with highs in the 60s and low 70s. However, post-frontal
winds out of the north will be very gusty, with gusts of 30-35 mph
possible. 

Monday morning will be nearly polar opposite to what we've seen
this week, with lows in the 30s. Near to below freezing
temperatures will be possible generally north of I-20 and in the
Big Country. With this much colder airmass firmly in place across
the region by Monday, highs very well may remain in the 40s, with
Monday night featuring widespread sub-freezing temperatures across
North and Central Texas. 

All this to be said, if you enjoy the warmth, cherish these next
few days because the end is in sight. And if you love the cold,
don't worry, relief looks to be on the way for next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Widespread low-stratus continues to slowly work northward, 
keeping largely along and east of I-35. As such, have pulled ILS 
out of FTW and AFW TAFs. There should still be a window between 
13Z and 17Z where low-MVFR/IFR stratus nudges into the eastern 
half of DFW (KDFW, KDAL, KGKY). Most guidance suggests prevailing 
low-MVFR; however, current obs to the south continue to report 
IFR cigs, so have left a TEMPO IFR at DAL, DFW and GKY in the TAFs
for now. Cigs should clear DFW TAF sites by 17Z, and ACT by 19Z 
giving way to VFR conditions and south winds of ~10 knots for the 
second half of the upcoming TAF forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  63  82  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                80  63  81  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               79  62  80  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              81  59  82  61 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            80  62  81  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              81  64  82  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             80  62  81  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           82  65  83  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              82  62  83  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       86  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah