144 FXUS64 KFWD 222322 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 - Rain chances return Thursday and continue through Sunday morning. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding could occur late Friday into early Saturday as 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are possible. - A few strong or severe storms could also occur late Friday into early Saturday, with a low threat for damaging winds and hail. The tornado threat appears very low. - Scattered storms may continue to develop much of the day Saturday. Some of these storms will be capable of producing hail. - Another strong system will bring low rain chances early next week with cooler, fall-like temperatures returning behind a strong cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Quiet weather will continue today, but a period of active weather is just on the horizon. Nice weather is expected the remainder of the day with a light southerly breeze, sunny skies, and afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Moisture will be transported northward tonight as strengthening low-level winds tap into Gulf moisture to our south. Moisture return will continue into Thursday, with a warm front expected to lift northward throughout the day. Isolated showers may develop across North Texas Thursday morning along a moisture gradient, but the potential is only around 10-20% at this time. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Thursday afternoon, with highs in the 80s areawide. By late Thursday afternoon, a few CAMs are hinting at a low potential for storm development north of the warm front in North Texas as a weak upper level disturbance passes overhead. 20% PoPs will exist for most areas along the Red River, and any development would most likely be near/west of I-35 and north of Highway 380. If storms develop, some of them could be strong with a potential for hail and gusty winds. An isolated severe storm can't be entirely ruled out, but this will depend on how much destabilization occurs prior to any storm development - which is not well agreed upon between the models at this time. Later Thursday night, height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent will result in the development of showers and storms across western portions of the state. Some of this activity will move into western North Texas late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Marginal instability, steepening lapse rates, and around 40 knots or so of 0-6 km shear will support at least an isolated threat for strong to severe storms, with hail and gusty winds expected to be the main hazards. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into Friday morning across North Texas from the overnight activity. This round of showers and storms should eventually dissipate, but a leading shortwave ahead of an upper low near the Four Corners may provide enough ascent to kick off isolated to scattered storms across portions of the area throughout the day. Storm coverage on Friday is still a bit uncertain, with many of the CAMs now depicting a generally rain-free day. If this trend continues, PoPs may need to be lowered a bit from the NBM. The cutoff low will dig southward into New Mexico throughout the day Friday, eventually taking a more easterly trajectory heading into Friday night. A surface low will approach out of West Texas by the evening, allowing a pre-frontal trough/Pacific front to set up near our western zones. As the upper low nears the Texas Panhandle, widespread showers and storms will blossom near and ahead of the surface low and trough/front sometime Friday evening/night. This activity will gradually move east through the overnight hours into Saturday morning, with one or more clusters of storms expected to develop. Up to 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, steep lapse rates, and sufficient deep layer shear will support an isolated threat for severe storms, with hail and damaging winds expected to be the main hazards. However, the areal extent of any severe weather threat will largely depend on both the location and magnitude of the axis of instability which remains a bit uncertain at this time. Areas west of I-35 and along/south of I-20 would likely see the highest potential for an isolated severe storm overnight. Heavy rainfall will become the main concern Friday night through Saturday morning, as slow storm motions, cell training, and abnormally high PWATs will result in efficient rainfall accumulation. Expected rainfall totals haven't changed much with the latest data, with widespread 1-3" totals expected. There is still quite a bit of spread in the upper and lower end rainfall amounts - with some locations (mainly in western North/Central Texas) seeing as little as 0.5" of rain and isolated areas (10% chance) east of I-35 potentially picking up around 4" of rain or so. While we're still sitting at a significant rainfall deficit for the month of October, isolated flooding will be possible Friday night into Saturday morning with this round of showers and storms, especially in any urban areas. Widespread showers and storms will exit the area sometime Saturday morning. However, there are still some timing discrepancies between models, with the NAM noticeably slower than other guidance. Unfortunately, we won't be in the clear behind this round of showers and storms, as scattered showers and storms will remain possible throughout the day Saturday as the upper low continues to provide strong ascent overhead. Additionally, lingering elevated instability due to steep lapse rates aloft will result in a threat for isolated hail with any of this activity. Ensure you monitor the weather throughout the day on Saturday, especially if you have any outdoor plans. Rain chances will finally come to an end Saturday night or Sunday as the upper low departs to the east. Pleasant weather will close out the weekend, with Sunday afternoon highs mostly in the 70s. A brief warm up is expected on Monday, but another cold front is slated to arrive late Monday into Tuesday, bringing cooler air back to the region. 12Z guidance continues to back off on the potential for storms with this system, keeping most of the ascent to our north. The current forecast advertises some low end PoPs across East and Central Texas early to mid week, but chances are looking slim overall. Another front may arrive mid-week, reinforcing the cooler air across North and Central Texas. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that fall weather will be here to stay next week and perhaps into early parts of November with no significant potential for rain on the horizon beyond this weekend's system. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of this evening and most of the overnight at the terminals. MVFR cigs will likely approach KACT after 12Z Thursday morning for a few hours, thus the inclusion of a 13Z-16Z TEMPO group. There is a less than 20% chance for MVFR cigs in D10, but FEW to SCT cigs at 1-2kft for a couple hours in the morning will be possible. A brief rain shower or two within D10 will also be possible during the day, but chances for measurable precipitation through Thursday evening at the Metroplex terminals will remain below 10%. Greater rain chances will arrive after this TAF period. Otherwise, expect southeast winds generally below 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 84 66 81 / 0 10 30 50 Waco 60 87 66 84 / 0 10 10 40 Paris 51 80 59 78 / 0 10 20 30 Denton 55 83 63 79 / 0 20 40 50 McKinney 55 81 63 80 / 0 20 30 50 Dallas 60 84 66 82 / 0 10 30 50 Terrell 55 84 62 82 / 0 20 20 40 Corsicana 59 86 66 84 / 0 10 10 30 Temple 60 87 66 83 / 0 10 0 40 Mineral Wells 58 88 64 82 / 0 10 40 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...55