656 
FXUS61 KCLE 022242
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
542 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

...00z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday. 

2) Showers expected ahead of and with a cold front Wednesday into 
Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Expansive high pressure will drift off the mid Atlantic coastal 
region providing the southern Great Lakes with deep southerly flow 
in the next couple of days. With 850mb temperatures climbing into 
the lower teens with warm air advection, expecting high temperatures 
10-20 degrees above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly 
pushing record highs in places Tuesday. Wednesday should lag a bit 
with the potential introduction of showers into the region ahead of 
the cold front marching in from the west. 

KEY MESSAGE 2... 
Deep upper low will push from the southern high plains towards the 
upper Mississippi Valley, driving a Pacific cold front west to east 
into the CWA. Line of showers moves into the western zones after 15Z 
Wednesday. Looking at the low level f-gen for this system, it 
appears the system may turn weakly frontolytic as it moves through 
the CWA Wednesday, with the line possibly becoming more scattered as 
it does so. This would correlate with the occluding nature of the 
surface and upper level low pressure systems, but still expect 
precipitation for all zones of the CWA and will need to watch for 
the development of surface waves along the cold front. Temperatures 
back down towards normal for the end of the week and into the 
weekend with continued upper level troughing over the CWA and off 
and on rain chances during this time as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... 
Overall VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected for this TAF period. 
There is one exception at MFD this evening for IFR ceilings
trough 03z before improving to MVFR overnight. Most of north 
central and northwest Ohio will have MVFR ceilings overnight 
improving to VFR ceilings by early Tuesday morning. TAF sites 
across NEOH and NWPA are seeing VFR ceilings. VFR ceilings are 
expected for all TAF sites midday Tuesday through the end of the
time period. Winds will be southerly 5 to 10 knots overnight.
Southerly winds will increase 10 to 14 knots on Tuesday with 
gusts up to 22 knots during the afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore winds 10-20kts through early Wednesday ahead of a cold 
front will mean wave heights increase progressively away from shore. 
In general, 2ft or less for the nearshore zones, and 2-4ft in the 
open water zones should be expected during this time. A cold front 
late Wednesday/Wednesday night turns winds more southwesterly 10-
20kts through Thursday, with wave heights in the nearshore zones 
east of Cleveland now in the 1-3ft range while wave height forecast 
s for the other zones remains the same.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie                  
11-03   77(1987)       76(2015)       79(1961)       80(1961)       80(1961)       80(1961)       
11-04   80(2003)       77(2015)       79(2003)       76(2015)       77(2003)       78(2015)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...77
MARINE...26