631 
FXUS61 KCLE 031144
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
744 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather for the
entire area later today. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 
5) of severe weather for the entire area on Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity will continue today followed by
temperatures not as hot this weekend. 

2) Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return later
today with better opportunities for rainfall this weekend into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
We have one more day today of very hot and humid weather
conditions before we start to see some relief. There are already
signs that the "heat dome" which has been over the Ohio Valley
and Mid-Atlantic region is beginning to break down and shift
southward away from our area. There are some scattered
convection just northwest of our area this morning which is one
indication that the ridge of high pressure is weakening. 

As for today, isolated to widely scattered convection over
southern Lower Michigan may track across Lake Erie later this
morning and skirt by our lakeshore. This weaker convection may
leave out an out flow boundary for new showers and storms to
develop later this afternoon and push further into northern Ohio
and NWPA. High temperatures will climb back into the middle to
upper 90s areawide. The heat index will once again be between
100 and 107 degrees this afternoon. The ongoing Extreme Heat
Warning for northern Ohio and Heat Advisory for NWPA looks good
at this time with no changes needed. Due to added cloud cover
and higher POPs this weekend, high temperatures will not be as
hot in the middle 80s to low 90s. More seasonable warm 
temperatures are expected to continue through much of next week
with daily highs in the middle to upper 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Our rain chances will gradually increase starting this afternoon
and evening as the area becomes more influenced by the
westerly flow over the top of the exiting ridge of high
pressure. Afternoon and evening POPs will increase between 30 to
50 percent later today. Widely scattered convection will be
possible across much of the area later today in the vicinity of
residual outflows from overnight activity and local lake breeze
enhancement. Deep layer shear and flow will support the
potential for a few strong clusters of convection which may
produce damaging wind gusts. SPC has the entire area in a slight
risk later today for severe storms with damaging wind gusts as
the main threat. 

POPs will increase to likely for much of the area Saturday
afternoon and evening. Now this does not mean a complete wash 
out for July 4th plans, but it does mean that there will likely
be scattered showers and storms throughout the afternoon and
evening. SPC has the area in a marginal risk day 2 outlook for a
few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts on
Saturday. The best chance of POPs and more widespread chances
for showers and storms will be on Sunday. POPs will increase
between 75 and 90 percent Sunday afternoon and evening. A couple
stronger storms with damaging wind gusts may also be possible.
The airmass will be very moist this weekend with PWATs of 1.5 to
2 inches. Any convection that is slow moving or training over
the same area will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall both Saturday and Sunday. 

An upper level trough will continue to slowly track eastward
across the Great Lakes region on Monday with an associated cold
front. POPs will remain high Monday for scattered convection.
Slightly drier weather will follow by the middle of next week
before rain chances increase again towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR is expected to prevail through the TAFs outside of 
convection. Upstream activity has dissipated this morning, 
leaving a clean slate to start the day. A few storms may try 
developing along a lake breeze boundary northeast of Cleveland 
early to mid-afternoon, potentially impacting ERI. Otherwise, 
scattered storms are favored to develop across far northern Ohio
or Lake Erie along an old outflow boundary late this afternoon 
into this evening and move east-southeast into the area, before
dissipating and/or exiting late evening into the overnight. 
Confidence in impacts to any given terminal remains on the 
lower side, as widespread thunderstorms are not expected and 
forcing is weak. The signal appears solid enough to go with a 
TEMPO at TOL, with continued VCSH and PROB30 groups at the other
terminals. Expect more refinement as confidence in terminals
potentially impacted vs not increases. We should then be dry 
and VFR for most of tonight, but will need to watch for 
additional clusters of showers/storms to arrive from the west- 
northwest late tonight into early Saturday. For now confidence 
is too low to include in any TAFs, but future cycles may need to
add something after roughly 9z Saturday. 

Winds will be out of the west-southwest and under 15kt through
the period outside of any convection. Locally stronger wind
gusts over 40kt may occur in/near thunderstorms. 

Outlook...Occasional shower and storm potential continues this 
weekend ahead of a cold front. Weak low pressure moves overhead 
Sunday night into Monday, continuing occasional shower/thunder 
potential and possibly bringing non-VFR ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain generally southerly or southwesterly at under
15kt through Sunday, keeping waves in the 1 to 2 foot range.
Lake breezes will flip winds a bit more onshore each afternoon,
especially northeast of Cleveland, which may push choppiness
into the nearshore waters. Occasional potential for 
thunderstorms exists this afternoon through the weekend. Briefly
higher winds and waves will accompany any thunderstorms over the
lake. Low pressure tracks over or just south of Lake Erie 
Sunday night into Monday, bringing winds around to a more 
easterly and then northerly direction at 15kt or less. This will
push some choppiness into the nearshore waters, but expected to
remain below headline criteria through the forecast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dangerous heat and humidity is expected again today. Record 
warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie                
07-03   100(1911)      93(2020)       98(1949)       97(1911)       98(1898)       93(1934)
07-04   100(2012)      96(2012)       98(1990)       99(1911)       99(1897)       99(1990)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan