297 
FXUS61 KCLE 031758
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
158 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather for the
entire area later today. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 
5) of severe weather for the entire area on Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity will continue today followed by
temperatures not as hot this weekend. 

2) Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return later
today with better opportunities for rainfall this weekend into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
We have one more day today of very hot and humid weather
conditions before we start to see some relief. There are already
signs that the "heat dome" which has been over the Ohio Valley
and Mid-Atlantic region is beginning to break down and shift
southward away from our area. There are some scattered
convection just northwest of our area this morning which is one
indication that the ridge of high pressure is weakening. 

As for today, isolated to widely scattered convection over
southern Lower Michigan may track across Lake Erie later this
morning and skirt by our lakeshore. This weaker convection may
leave out an out flow boundary for new showers and storms to
develop later this afternoon and push further into northern Ohio
and NWPA. High temperatures will climb back into the middle to
upper 90s areawide. The heat index will once again be between
100 and 107 degrees this afternoon. The ongoing Extreme Heat
Warning for northern Ohio and Heat Advisory for NWPA looks good
at this time with no changes needed. Due to added cloud cover
and higher POPs this weekend, high temperatures will not be as
hot in the middle 80s to low 90s. More seasonable warm 
temperatures are expected to continue through much of next week
with daily highs in the middle to upper 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Our rain chances will gradually increase starting this afternoon
and evening as the area becomes more influenced by the
westerly flow over the top of the exiting ridge of high
pressure. Afternoon and evening POPs will increase between 30 to
50 percent later today. Widely scattered convection will be
possible across much of the area later today in the vicinity of
residual outflows from overnight activity and local lake breeze
enhancement. Deep layer shear and flow will support the
potential for a few strong clusters of convection which may
produce damaging wind gusts. SPC has the entire area in a slight
risk later today for severe storms with damaging wind gusts as
the main threat. 

POPs will increase to likely for much of the area Saturday
afternoon and evening. Now this does not mean a complete wash 
out for July 4th plans, but it does mean that there will likely
be scattered showers and storms throughout the afternoon and
evening. SPC has the area in a marginal risk day 2 outlook for a
few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts on
Saturday. The best chance of POPs and more widespread chances
for showers and storms will be on Sunday. POPs will increase
between 75 and 90 percent Sunday afternoon and evening. A couple
stronger storms with damaging wind gusts may also be possible.
The airmass will be very moist this weekend with PWATs of 1.5 to
2 inches. Any convection that is slow moving or training over
the same area will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall both Saturday and Sunday. 

An upper level trough will continue to slowly track eastward
across the Great Lakes region on Monday with an associated cold
front. POPs will remain high Monday for scattered convection.
Slightly drier weather will follow by the middle of next week
before rain chances increase again towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are seen across the region currently with
scattered clouds around 4-5kft and will continue for the next
several hours. There is low confidence in thunderstorms forming
this afternoon and early evening and impacting terminals. If
this does occur, it would be along a boundary from south of
KERI southwest through KFDY. Though, with low confidence in
impacts to terminals, opted to leave off of this TAF issuance.
There is more confidence is late evening thunderstorms impacting
KTOL, KFDY, and KCLE around 23-05Z. Confidence is lower the 
further south and east of KCLE, so continued the PROB30 wording
for those TAF sites. Another round of thunderstorms are possible
early Saturday morning, though confidence is still low in
impacting TAF sites. VFR is expected for much of the end of the
TAF period with more thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon
and evening. 

Winds through the TAF period will generally be out of the west-
southwest at 7-12 knots and occasionally gusting up to 15-20 
knots. Within thunderstorms, can expect stronger gusts up to 40
knots. 

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in occasional showers and 
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Non-VFR possible
Sunday evening into Monday morning with showers and
thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the region. 

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be out of the southwest this afternoon at 5-15 knots
with waves generally 2 feet or less. Conditions should continue
through Saturday evening. There will be thunderstorms chances 
through this weekend which could briefly increase winds and 
waves within and around storms. Weak low pressure and a cold 
front will pass over Lake Erie late Sunday night and shift winds
to be out of the east to northeast at 5-15 knots by Monday 
morning. Waves could be choppy in the near shore with the 
onshore flow, but should stay below 2 feet. High pressure begins
to build over the region late Monday and winds and waves will
begin to subside into Tuesday. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dangerous heat and humidity is expected again today. Record 
warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie                
07-03   100(1911)      93(2020)       98(1949)       97(1911)       98(1898)       93(1934)
07-04   100(2012)      96(2012)       98(1990)       99(1911)       99(1897)       99(1990)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23