356 
FXUS61 KCLE 260005
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
805 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is situated over the Great Lakes region and will 
slowly drift to the east through early next week. A low pressure 
system will form across the mid-Mississippi Valley and move east 
into the region mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
7:50 PM Update:
The frost/freeze potential remains tricky tonight with potential for
higher clouds to limit cooling at times, especially across the west/
southwest, to go along with very weak onshore northeasterly flow and
potential for lake effect clouds closer to the lake. Mid-level clouds
have decreased notably over the last couple hours across most of the
area and guidance generally suggests they won't fill back in...
however, we may see at least some cloud cover spread into our
southwestern counties later this evening. Lake effect clouds are
currently out over the lake, with some stratus persisting in extreme
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Flow will shift overnight (after 6z)
behind a subtle shortwave passage, which likely will push lake effect
clouds south off the lake. How quickly they spread inland is a
question. It is possible that some counties currently not under the
Freeze Warning (particularly Medina/Summit/Portage and maybe Trumbull)
take until close to dawn for lake effect clouds to spread in, which
would imply greater likelihood of frost/freeze conditions. Outside of
some passing higher clouds, another potential wrench in this area is
subtle low-level troughing evident on 850mb and 925mb model
wind/RH/temp fields through the night across Northeast OH, which may
fill back in with at least some stratus clouds at any time.

Ultimately made minor changes to the low temperature forecast and
coverage of frost wording in the forecast (raised lows slightly in our
west and southwest due to more clouds spreading in from the west, and
lowered lows and beefed up frost coverage slightly in the Medina-
Trumbull County corridor). Strongly considered expanding the Freeze
Warning into that corridor, though ultimately was not quite confident
enough to make changes to a headline just a few hours after we
initially hoisted it. With that said, if anyone outside of the 
immediate lakeshore still has sensitive vegetation, they should take 
it inside or cover it tonight out of an abundance of caution with this
chilly airmass in place. Note that per an earlier Public Information 
Statement, we have ended the growing season (meaning no additional 
frost/freeze products this fall) in parts of Northwest Ohio. 

We are expecting some lake effect showers to start re-developing late
this evening into the overnight...initially along and just off the 
shoreline northeast of Cleveland as land breeze convergence increases
overnight. Lake effect showers will then push south-southwest, 
slightly inland into the primary snowbelt and then towards the 
lakeshore between Cleveland and Sandusky, into early Sunday morning as
a weak shortwave passage shifts the flow more northerly. This is
represented well in the going POP/sky/QPF forecast, meaning no other
changes were made outside of the minor low temp/frost changes. 

Previous Discussion:

Lake effect showers have been slowing ending across northeastern 
Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania as High pressure builds over the 
region and flow weakens. As the high shifts more to the east, low-
level flow will become more northeasterly leading to the lake effect 
showers starting up again tonight into early Sunday across north-
central Ohio west to Fremont. Dry air moves in throughout Sunday and 
will cut off the lake effect showers. 

Temperatures tonight into Sunday morning will drop down into the low 
30s to upper 20s away from the lakeshore. A freeze warning has been 
issued mainly for the US 30 corridor and south. The caveat with 
this is how much cloud cover will there be. Between the low, lake 
effect clouds to the north and the higher clouds to the south, there 
will be a thin area that could cool effectively enough to freeze. If 
the cloud cover is more widespread then temperatures may not drop 
enough to freeze. Elsewhere, temperatures will be in the mid to 
upper 30s, and around 40 near the lakeshore. 

For Sunday night, there will be ample clearing with the influx of 
dry air, so temperatures will be able to effectively drop to around 
and below freezing for much of the region. Frost/Freeze headlines 
will likely be needed Sunday night as well given the growing season 
hasn't ended with the previous nights freeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging builds in from the west to start next week 
leading to quiet weather for the majority of the short term. An 
upper level trough begins to deepens across southern Canada Tuesday 
and a shortwave feature will break off from larger trough and push 
southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. Most 
global models depict this system fairly well and are in agreement 
during this model run as it evolves during this timeframe. This will 
become more of a impact during the long term. Temperatures during 
the short term will trend a little warmer with highs in the mid 50s 
and lows in the mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The aforementioned system in the short term will progress east-
northeastward starting mid-week. Model guidance at this point 
becomes separated in the track of the surface low as it moves east. 
The GFS has the low with a more southerly track, which if that is 
the case, then we will see little to no precipitation across the 
region. The Canadian and the ECMWF both have the system with a more 
northerly track and a widespread precipitation shield as it moves 
through the region. Regardless, the air mass behind the low will be 
cooler and with the west-to-northwesterly flow across the region 
lake effect showers will form across the snow belt region into the 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. The primary
forecast concerns impacting some local terminals include
potential for lake effect showers tonight into early Sunday,
along with potential for patchy fog/mist early Sunday. Regarding
the lake effect showers, these are expected to take shape along
or just off the Lake Erie shoreline later this evening, pushing
southwest and a bit more onshore early Sunday morning. These 
showers will only be in play for terminals along the lakeshore 
from PCW points east, including ERI and CLE. Maintained VCSH 
mentions at both, from 4-9z at ERI and 9-15z at CLE. There are 
low odds for non-VFR vsby if a heavier shower impacts a 
terminal, with slightly greater odds at ERI where a PROB30 was 
included. Ceilings may dip to MVFR in any showers and also into 
early Sunday, especially at ERI (where it's included in the TAF)
with lower confidence at CLE. In terms of fog/mist, passing 
high clouds likely limit this. However, hi-res guidance 
consistently suggests a sliver of interior eastern Ohio, 
including CAK and YNG, may hang on to mostly clear skies long 
enough to see fog early Sunday. Confidence is low, though 
included a few hours of MVFR BR at CAK where the potential may 
be slightly higher to at least get some awareness of it. 

Winds will be light and variable tonight, increasing out of the
east-northeast to 6-12 knots Sunday afternoon...strongest
towards TOL and FDY, weakest towards YNG. 

Outlook...Scattered rain showers with non-VFR are possible this
Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure centered just north of the Great Lakes Region will 
maintain light winds with good marine conditions into Sunday. 
Northeast winds on Sunday will increase to 10-15 knots during the 
afternoon with a chop developing by late in the day. 

On Monday we enter a period of brisk northeast to easterly winds as 
high pressure sets up over Quebec and a series of low pressure 
systems move through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, leading to a 
tightening pressure gradient and strengthening winds. Small Craft 
Advisory conditions look to be met on the western two-thirds of the 
lake Monday night as northeast winds increase to 20-25 knots and 
waves build in the nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisories will be 
needed at times through Thursday as we maintain increased east to 
northeast winds. Winds finally back to northwesterly on Thursday 
night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for 
     OHZ028>033-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...10