621 FXUS61 KCLE 120015 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 715 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will briefly build into the Ohio Valley tonight before a fast moving clipper system dives through the Ohio Valley Friday. Another clipper system and arctic cold front will move through the region Saturday, with a trough lingering across the Great Lakes Sunday. High pressure will build in for Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Lake-effect snow showers continue across northern Ohio and NW PA this afternoon in the broad cold, cyclonic flow. Regional radar loops show multiple bands across both the inland primary and secondary snowbelts with upstream connections to Lakes Superior and Michigan, as well as a Lake Huron connection into the PA/NY border. The bands are only loosely organized since pop up snow showers are occurring in most areas between these bands due to the very cold air aloft (-13 C at 850 mb and -35 C at 500 mb). This will keep snow amounts in check the rest of the afternoon and evening, but abundant moisture and lift into the DGZ as well as lake induced equilibrium levels of 8-10 thousand feet will support bursts of moderate to briefly heavy snowfall. Moving into tonight, a mid-level jet max and associated weak surface low will drop out of the Upper Midwest. This weak clipper will dive into the Ohio Valley Friday morning, and as it passes by to the south, it will disrupt the boundary layer flow across the lake and introduce shear, which will gradually weaken the lingering lake-effect snow. However, RAP and NAM BUFKIT forecast soundings continue to show favorable lift and moisture through the DGZ and inversion levels remaining elevated most of the night. HREF guidance also suggests a period of low-level convergence near Cuyahoga County E/SE into Geauga, Portage, and Trumbull as well as a persistent Lake Huron connection swinging into Erie and Crawford PA counties at times. This should all cause lake-effect snow showers to stubbornly continue most of the night, even in a weakening form. Adjusted additional snowfall amounts to 1 to 3 inches across eastern Cuyahoga, Geauga, northern Portage, and Trumbull Counties, with 2 to 4 inches across Crawford County PA (highest NE), and 2 to 5 inches across Erie County PA (highest S and E). Additional snowfall through tonight will be 1 inch or less around these areas. With this being said, extended the Advisory for Geauga and southern Ashtabula Counties to 09Z (4 AM) Friday to match the end times of the headlines in Erie and Crawford Counties. Inversion levels lowering to around 5 thousand feet after 10Z Friday will finally shut down lingering snow showers and flurries by mid morning. As touched on above, the weak clipper low will pass south of the region Friday morning and afternoon, so limited POPS to slight chance along and south of U.S. 30, with only 0.1 inch or less of snow accumulation. This will set up briefly dry conditions areawide Friday evening into the first half of Friday night before a strong mid/upper trough and associated H5 closed low dropping into the northern Great Lakes drags an arctic cold front toward the region. Strong frontogenetic forcing from a 135-145 knot H3 jet streak will produce a band of snow showers along the arctic front, so have chance POPS gradually moving into northern Ohio late Friday night. Additionally, a well- aligned WSW boundary layer flow will lead to a strong lake- effect band developing over Lake Erie, and this band could push onshore in far NE Ohio and NW PA toward sunrise Saturday, so have likely to categorical POPS there by Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The arctic front discussed above will progress through the region Saturday morning, with the deep mid/upper trough and closed low digging southward through the Great Lakes through the day. Details in terms of snowfall amounts and exact timing remain uncertain, but the combination of a burst of snow with the front fusing with a lake-effect band pushing inland will likely produce a short window of moderate to heavy snowfall. Would not be surprised if a quick 1-2 inches of snow accumulates Saturday morning in much of NE Ohio and NW PA as the band pushes inland. W to WNW flow and strong cold air advection will then set up for the rest of the day, so impactful lake-effect snow could continue east of Cleveland through NW PA at times Saturday afternoon and evening after a brief lull. If this were not enough, another mid-level shortwave will rotate through the base of the digging trough Saturday afternoon and evening supporting another fast moving clipper low. This will bring some areawide snow accumulation Saturday afternoon and evening outside of the lake-effect. NBM Probabilistic snowfall of 3 inches or greater has been trending the highest probabilities toward central Ohio, so have some 1 to 2 inch snowfall amounts along and south of U.S. 30 as a starting point Saturday afternoon and evening, with generally 1 inch or less farther north. Regardless of exact amounts, it will snow in all areas in some capacity along with gusty winds of 20-25 knots, so some hazardous travel is likely Saturday afternoon and evening areawide. Behind the clipper, boundary layer flow will turn NNW for Saturday night and Sunday behind a secondary front, with 850 mb temps crashing to -20 C. This will push ongoing lake-effect snow east of Cleveland farther west into the secondary snowbelt, with multi-banded lake-effect impacting both the inland primary and secondary snowbelts Saturday night through Sunday night. The arctic airmass looks very dry, so this may limit the intensity of bands Saturday night through Sunday night, but the combination of the snow Saturday and lingering lake-effect through Sunday night will likely necessitate headlines this weekend. This will continue to be monitored, as several inches of snow could accumulate in the primary and secondary snowbelts this weekend. Finally, this will be the coldest airmass of the young winter season, with highs in the low/upper 20s Saturday falling into the mid teens/low 20s Sunday. Lows Saturday night and Sunday night will fall into the single digits to low teens, with wind chill values below -5 F in some areas Saturday night and Sunday morning and below 0 F Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lingering lake-effect snow showers will continue in NE Ohio and NW PA Monday in continued cyclonic flow as the deep eastern CONUS trough gradually lifts out, but a large area of surface high pressure sliding through the Ohio Valley Monday night and Tuesday will shut down the activity. This high will set up offshore of the East Coast for mid and late week, and this combined with the mid/upper flow becoming quasi-zonal across the country will allow the arctic air to retreat as milder Pacific- based air takes over. The next storm system approaching the Great Lakes region by late Wednesday and Thursday will bring rain as the precip type as temperatures warm. Highs in the low/mid 20s Monday will warm into the upper 20s to low 30s Tuesday, with upper 30s to low 40s Wednesday and low to mid 40s Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Lake effect snow showers continue across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania with occasional IFR visibilities impacting CLE/ERI/YNG at times through 04Z. Snow should be ending at MFD while CAK may see light snow or flurries through about 02Z. A heavier band that has been impacting CLE prior to 00Z should trend lighter this evening and be more intermittent after 04Z. ERI is the other site that may see occasional heavy snow as a band extending off Lake Huron impacts the site on occasion through 04Z. Expecting more breaks in the snow at ERI late tonight with potential for another round of light snow at ERI. Ceilings are generally VFR in NW Ohio and MVFR in Northeast Ohio but will trend upward overnight. Terminals outside the snowbelt will scatter out low clouds on Friday. West winds are generally 10 knots or less except at ERI where gusts will continue through midnight. Other terminals will see winds back to southwesterly and become light at 5 knots or less. Outlook...Non-VFR is likely in periods of snow as a series of systems cross the area through the weekend with the best chance in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories continue near and east of Vermilion, though conditions on Lake Erie are expected to gradually improve through tonight as a ridge of high pressure briefly builds in. Southwest winds develop Friday night, with peak wind speeds of around 25-30 knots expected Saturday morning with and immediately following the passage of a cold front. Waves of 5-9 feet are likely east of The Islands through the day Saturday. Winds of 15 to 25 knots generally becomes northwest by Saturday evening and continue through the rest of the weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for OHZ013-014. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ003. Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Garuckas NEAR TERM...Garuckas SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...10 MARINE...Saunders