National Weather Service Raw Text Product

601 
FXAK67 PAJK 290524 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
824 PM AKDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ 
As of 214pm. Vigorous shortwave moving through the eastern gulf this 
afternoon bringing more rain and wind to the panhandle. Highest 
winds observed (25 to 30 kt) were along the near shore waters of the 
gulf off Prince of Wales and Baranof Islands and in Clarence Strait 
(Lincoln Rock reported 34kt sustained around 11 am). Moderate 
rainfall rates have also been observed today mainly around Ketchikan 
(hourly rain rates of around 0.16 inches per hour at times).

The first part of the short range period deals with where the
current shortwave/low goes tonight. Track is still the same with
the main low heading north through the eastern gulf overnight. 
Main changes here were to speed up the timing of the system as it 
moves north. Higher winds in the northern and central inner 
channels are now occurring more late tonight and Sunday morning 
then midday tomorrow though the expected strength of the winds are
mostly unchanged (20 kt for most areas). The timing of the rain 
has also seen a similar speed up but amounts are relatively the 
same as the previous forecast.

Sunday into Sunday night is looking quieter though still damp as
onshore flow continues and a new shortwave takes aim at the
southern panhandle for Sunday night. Mostly on and off shower
activity expected for Sunday afternoon. The more organized rain
and some wind comes in late Sunday night for the southern
panhandle as that new shortwave moves into the far SE gulf. This
system is not looking as strong as the previous shortwaves from
earlier this weekend so max winds of 15 kt expected with some 
lighter rain late Sunday night mainly for the southern panhandle.

.LONG TERM...
Continued colder than normal temperatures, widespread overcast cloud 
cover, and precipitation look to continue for the panhandle for the 
foreseeable future. A cold upper level low will remain stationary 
throughout the long term, at least through July 3rd, as the eastern 
portion of an omega block over the entirety of Alaska. Much of the 
large scale motions in the atmosphere over the state has good 
confidence on occurrence. That being said, smaller details, that 
being the various upper level troughs moving around the 500 mb low, 
have much less confidence on timing, strength, and placement. What 
is known into next week is chances for rain will broadly remain in 
the forecast, with individual details still being worked out. 

Highest confidence is in the Sunday forecast, with some mid level 
ridging between 850-500 mb and drier air. While not to the levels 
where clearing skies are expected, this will most likely result in a 
break in rainfall for the northern panhandle, including Haines and 
Skagway. Then, guidance continues to be uncomfortably divergent, 
with global deterministic models settling on a slightly deepening 
low moving in and becoming stationary approximately 30-50 NM off the 
coast of Sitka. That being said, given the stronger solution, which 
appears to be if the low strengthens off the coast of Sitka and then 
becomes detached from the upper level flow, looks have two wraps, 
with the initial as a warm occlusion with stratiform rain, and the 
second convective. Deterministic CAMs that have this solution show a 
line of convergence developing around southern Chatham Strait, lapse 
rates exceeding 7 degrees C between 850-500mb, and a dry intrusion 
from 700-500mb. While certainly not as intense as the middle of 
June, gusty conditions could develop along this line of storms, 
particularly if there are breaks in clouds ahead of this system. The 
one caveat to this solution would be the convergence develops 
somewhat early in the morning, which would limit any significant 
surface heating and increased thetaE from any potential solar 
radiation. Unfortunately for storm lovers, clusters particularly 
within the EPS, and recent runs of CAMs lean towards a less 
developed system, mostly cut off from any upper level shortwave 
troughs. These solutions mostly impact Clarence Strait with an 
increase in winds to 15-20 knots near the entrance to Dixon 
Entrance, and mostly northerly winds in the inner channels. One 
consistent feature of either solution though, is the tendency for 
increased rain rates in northern Prince of Wales Island, Kuiu 
Island, and Kupreanof Island near Petersburg. While not expecting 
any flooding at this point for places like Falls Creek, drops in 
visibility due to heavy rain are possible. In the official forecast, 
went did not make many changes to the wind field except change many 
areas in the inner channels to northerly, as places in the northern 
half of the panhandle will be consistently northerly with either 
solution. 

Beyond Tuesday, confidence continues to be low, but what can be said 
is persistent cloud cover and periods of rain will continue. 
Ensemble guidance continues to show a low lingering over the Gulf 
heading into next week. While there are no early indications that 
this rain will be heavy, it does look to persist over the area. 
Ensemble and NBM guidance for temperatures continues to show that 
temperatures will around where they have been. But there is some 
guidance trying to show signs of hope for mid week with increased 
temperatures. Confidence right now in this solution is low at the 
time of writing and leaned more on the continued wet pattern for the 
time being.

&&

.AVIATION.../06z Sunday to 06z Monday/
Bands of showers continue to track northward across the region this 
evening. Some showers are causing visibility down to 2SM, CIG down 
to around 1500ft, and shortlived gusts of around 20kt. Risk for LLWS 
has largely move out and winds that had shifted out of the SW behind 
the frontal trough will slowly back around to the SE overnight.

A break in the bands of showers is starting to show up across the 
south as of 5z and wouldn't be surprised to see some patchy fog or 
low clouds hanging around the mountains through early morning. 
Breaks in the showers will also spread northward through Sunday 
afternoon with conditions lifting through the day and most of the 
area seeing VFR conditions by mid-day. The next low and round of 
showers tracking up from the south look to affect the far southern 
sites between 3-9z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside: Shortwave moving north through the eastern gulf has
produced SE winds of 20 to 30 kt off of Prince of Wales Island and
Baranof Island today which has produced wind waves of around 8 ft
in that area. There is a small SW swell of up to 3 ft with 9 sec 
period present as well that is expected to persist through 
Monday. The higher winds and seas will move north tonight 
weakening as it goes. Mostly 15 kt or less of wind and seas 6 ft 
or less expected for Sunday and Sunday night even with the new 
shortwave moving into the SE gulf late Sunday night. There could 
be brief periods of 20 kt winds off of Prince of Wales Island 
around the surface low Sunday night into Monday, but it should 
only affect small areas.

Inside: Southerly push of stronger winds will be moving north
through the inner channels tonight as the short wave currently 
over the south moves north. Highest winds of 20 to 30 kt currently
over the southern inner channels, but it should reach the northern
inner channels with 20 kt southerly winds by midnight. This is a
speed up in timing compared to the previous forecast with the
higher winds now occurring tonight and Sunday morning rather then
midday Sunday. Inner channel winds should diminish Sunday 
afternoon and remain mostly low through Sunday night. Exception is
Clarence Strait and around Cape Decision where winds of around 15
kt or possibly 20 kt could be blowing late by Sunday night from 
the new short wave moving in. 


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036. 
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-641>644-661>664-671. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....NC/SEF
AVIATION...ABJ
MARINE...EAL

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