601 FXAK67 PAJK 290524 AAA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Juneau AK 824 PM AKDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ As of 214pm. Vigorous shortwave moving through the eastern gulf this afternoon bringing more rain and wind to the panhandle. Highest winds observed (25 to 30 kt) were along the near shore waters of the gulf off Prince of Wales and Baranof Islands and in Clarence Strait (Lincoln Rock reported 34kt sustained around 11 am). Moderate rainfall rates have also been observed today mainly around Ketchikan (hourly rain rates of around 0.16 inches per hour at times). The first part of the short range period deals with where the current shortwave/low goes tonight. Track is still the same with the main low heading north through the eastern gulf overnight. Main changes here were to speed up the timing of the system as it moves north. Higher winds in the northern and central inner channels are now occurring more late tonight and Sunday morning then midday tomorrow though the expected strength of the winds are mostly unchanged (20 kt for most areas). The timing of the rain has also seen a similar speed up but amounts are relatively the same as the previous forecast. Sunday into Sunday night is looking quieter though still damp as onshore flow continues and a new shortwave takes aim at the southern panhandle for Sunday night. Mostly on and off shower activity expected for Sunday afternoon. The more organized rain and some wind comes in late Sunday night for the southern panhandle as that new shortwave moves into the far SE gulf. This system is not looking as strong as the previous shortwaves from earlier this weekend so max winds of 15 kt expected with some lighter rain late Sunday night mainly for the southern panhandle. .LONG TERM... Continued colder than normal temperatures, widespread overcast cloud cover, and precipitation look to continue for the panhandle for the foreseeable future. A cold upper level low will remain stationary throughout the long term, at least through July 3rd, as the eastern portion of an omega block over the entirety of Alaska. Much of the large scale motions in the atmosphere over the state has good confidence on occurrence. That being said, smaller details, that being the various upper level troughs moving around the 500 mb low, have much less confidence on timing, strength, and placement. What is known into next week is chances for rain will broadly remain in the forecast, with individual details still being worked out. Highest confidence is in the Sunday forecast, with some mid level ridging between 850-500 mb and drier air. While not to the levels where clearing skies are expected, this will most likely result in a break in rainfall for the northern panhandle, including Haines and Skagway. Then, guidance continues to be uncomfortably divergent, with global deterministic models settling on a slightly deepening low moving in and becoming stationary approximately 30-50 NM off the coast of Sitka. That being said, given the stronger solution, which appears to be if the low strengthens off the coast of Sitka and then becomes detached from the upper level flow, looks have two wraps, with the initial as a warm occlusion with stratiform rain, and the second convective. Deterministic CAMs that have this solution show a line of convergence developing around southern Chatham Strait, lapse rates exceeding 7 degrees C between 850-500mb, and a dry intrusion from 700-500mb. While certainly not as intense as the middle of June, gusty conditions could develop along this line of storms, particularly if there are breaks in clouds ahead of this system. The one caveat to this solution would be the convergence develops somewhat early in the morning, which would limit any significant surface heating and increased thetaE from any potential solar radiation. Unfortunately for storm lovers, clusters particularly within the EPS, and recent runs of CAMs lean towards a less developed system, mostly cut off from any upper level shortwave troughs. These solutions mostly impact Clarence Strait with an increase in winds to 15-20 knots near the entrance to Dixon Entrance, and mostly northerly winds in the inner channels. One consistent feature of either solution though, is the tendency for increased rain rates in northern Prince of Wales Island, Kuiu Island, and Kupreanof Island near Petersburg. While not expecting any flooding at this point for places like Falls Creek, drops in visibility due to heavy rain are possible. In the official forecast, went did not make many changes to the wind field except change many areas in the inner channels to northerly, as places in the northern half of the panhandle will be consistently northerly with either solution. Beyond Tuesday, confidence continues to be low, but what can be said is persistent cloud cover and periods of rain will continue. Ensemble guidance continues to show a low lingering over the Gulf heading into next week. While there are no early indications that this rain will be heavy, it does look to persist over the area. Ensemble and NBM guidance for temperatures continues to show that temperatures will around where they have been. But there is some guidance trying to show signs of hope for mid week with increased temperatures. Confidence right now in this solution is low at the time of writing and leaned more on the continued wet pattern for the time being. && .AVIATION.../06z Sunday to 06z Monday/ Bands of showers continue to track northward across the region this evening. Some showers are causing visibility down to 2SM, CIG down to around 1500ft, and shortlived gusts of around 20kt. Risk for LLWS has largely move out and winds that had shifted out of the SW behind the frontal trough will slowly back around to the SE overnight. A break in the bands of showers is starting to show up across the south as of 5z and wouldn't be surprised to see some patchy fog or low clouds hanging around the mountains through early morning. Breaks in the showers will also spread northward through Sunday afternoon with conditions lifting through the day and most of the area seeing VFR conditions by mid-day. The next low and round of showers tracking up from the south look to affect the far southern sites between 3-9z Monday. && .MARINE... Outside: Shortwave moving north through the eastern gulf has produced SE winds of 20 to 30 kt off of Prince of Wales Island and Baranof Island today which has produced wind waves of around 8 ft in that area. There is a small SW swell of up to 3 ft with 9 sec period present as well that is expected to persist through Monday. The higher winds and seas will move north tonight weakening as it goes. Mostly 15 kt or less of wind and seas 6 ft or less expected for Sunday and Sunday night even with the new shortwave moving into the SE gulf late Sunday night. There could be brief periods of 20 kt winds off of Prince of Wales Island around the surface low Sunday night into Monday, but it should only affect small areas. Inside: Southerly push of stronger winds will be moving north through the inner channels tonight as the short wave currently over the south moves north. Highest winds of 20 to 30 kt currently over the southern inner channels, but it should reach the northern inner channels with 20 kt southerly winds by midnight. This is a speed up in timing compared to the previous forecast with the higher winds now occurring tonight and Sunday morning rather then midday Sunday. Inner channel winds should diminish Sunday afternoon and remain mostly low through Sunday night. Exception is Clarence Strait and around Cape Decision where winds of around 15 kt or possibly 20 kt could be blowing late by Sunday night from the new short wave moving in. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-641>644-661>664-671. && $$ SHORT TERM...EAL LONG TERM....NC/SEF AVIATION...ABJ MARINE...EAL Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau