National Weather Service Raw Text Product

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NOUS43 KTOP 181922
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KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-190722-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
222 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Key Points:

Scattered thunderstorms possible through the afternoon today, these are not expected to be severe, but could produce some small hail and gusty winds.
Heat begins to build in on Thursday and into the weekend with heat indices approaching the 100-105 degree range Friday through Sunday.

Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows ridging over the western US, a trough axis entering the PNW, a shortwave entering the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley region with a Bermuda High pushing into the Mid-Atlantic. Closer to northeast Kansas, a small perturbation on the periphery of the existing upper low has pushed in from southeast Nebraska, helping to develop a line of weak thunderstorms in the area. Storms have mainly stayed confined to the 850mb and 700mb trough axis with little convection noted north. Given an uncapped airmass ahead of the low-level trough axis characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 10-20 knots of deep shear, a few updrafts have been on the stronger side but have quickly come down given the lack of shear. Scattered thunderstorms should continue this afternoon along this wave axis in far northeastern and eastern Kansas. Severe chances with these storms will remain low, but cannot rule out some small hail and gusty winds. High temperatures today will be on the cooler side with the weak CAA from the north, topping out in the low upper 70s and low 80s.

Beyond thunderstorms today, the main forecast highlight over the next week or so will be the building heat. Through the day Thursday, mid-level heights will increase as the main ridge axis slides east into the central Plains and Midwest. Thursday will see temperatures in the afternoon warm into the upper 80s and low 90s as large-scale subsidence increases. By the weekend, the H5 ridge axis will settle over the central US where heat and humidity will be expected to increase heat risks. Temperatures each afternoon will increase into the mid to upper 90s (north-central KS to east-central KS respectively) with dewpoints creeping into the upper 60s and low 70s. This should push heat index values upwards of 100-105 degrees for Friday through Sunday. Morning low temperatures will not provide much cool relief with lows bottoming out in the mid to upper 70s each morning. The good news is that southerly winds each afternoon of 15-20 mph (gusts up to 30-40 mph) could help to make it feel a bit cooler for those outdoors. That said, heat related illness will still become an issue for those who lack proper hydration, lack air conditioning or are in a heat-sensitive group. Will continue to monitor the need for any heat-related headlines.
Chances for precipitation remain low through the weekend but should begin to increase early next week as a few mid-level waves eject into the central and northern Plains. 

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