National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: ESFSDF Product Timestamp: 2004-10-22 13:36 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KLMK Products for 22 Oct 2004 View All ESF Products for 22 Oct 2004 View As Image Download As Text
000 FGUS73 KLMK 221336 ESFSDF INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009- 017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103- 111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211- 213-215-217-223-229-239-181200- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 0934 AM EDT FRI 22 2004 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS... IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT FRANKFORT LOCK HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 31.0 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 24.6 FEET. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD 10/24/2004 - 1/22/2005 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- OHIO RIVER CLIFTY CREEK 451.0 430.3 434.6 439.8 443.7 450.7 452.8 MCALPINE UPPER 23.0 13.7 16.0 17.8 19.8 27.5 29.7 MCALPINE LOWER 55.0 31.6 36.5 44.1 48.6 58.5 61.2 CANNELTON LOCK 42.0 25.0 30.2 36.0 39.5 44.8 47.0 TELL CITY 38.0 24.0 29.1 34.7 38.7 44.1 45.8 KENTUCKY RIVER FORD LOCK 26.0 16.5 17.9 19.6 21.4 26.1 31.6 HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 30.0 17.3 18.5 20.8 25.5 34.7 44.2 FRANKFORT LOCK 31.0 12.5 13.7 17.9 24.6 32.7 39.3 SALT RIVER SHEPHERDSVILLE 32.0 3.1 4.0 5.5 7.9 15.7 20.2 ROLLING FORK RIVER BOSTON 35.0 18.9 24.4 32.0 40.2 48.0 48.7 MUSCATATUCK RIVER DEPUTY 20.0 8.8 10.8 15.3 19.1 22.1 26.6 FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM 2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO 4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID OCTOBER 29 THROUGH NOVEMBER 4... CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITION. AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...NORMAL PRECIPITATON IS BETWEEN FOUR AND FIVE TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER...CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS). ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LMK (ALL LOWER CASE) $$