349 
FXUS62 KTAE 131322
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
922 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Once again, persistence will be a good forecast for today and 
tonight. 

Satellite-derived Precipitable Water imagery reveals a dry air mass, 
with PW values in the 1-1.1 inch range. The 00z JAX balloon sounding 
showed 3-4 subsidence inversions below 650 mb, so the air mass is
also stable. Surface dewpoints are running in the lower 60s, 
after bottoming out in the upper 50s during the well mixed late 
afternoon hours on Friday.

Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows a digging shortwave near 
Tallahassee that will further amplify the already-amplified 500 mb
trough extending southwest from the NC Piedmont. In response, the
thunderstorm-riddled surface trough extending north out of the 
Bahamas will deepen a bit more today, tightening the pressure 
gradient to its west and further strengthening our NE surface 
flow today. This will reinforce the dry air mass in place. 
Temperatures will trend downward by a modest 1-3 degrees. For 
tonight, inland locations which decouple will certainly have 
potential to drop into the 50s, though most places will keep a 
little wind with lows in the 60-65 degree range on Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Little sensible day-to-day change is expected through Wednesday, 
as a blocking pattern will keep an upper trough in place over the
Carolinas and Georgia. This will amount to a continuation of cool
nights, seasonably hot afternoons, northeast surface winds, and a
dry air mass. 

From a synoptic perspective, the amplified 500 mb trough will become 
cutoff from the mid-latitude flow on Monday, as a strong upper high 
builds across the Great Lakes and sets up a Rex Block pattern. So
downstream, a surface trough will continue between the Bahamas 
and the NC coast, with high pressure over the Northeast U.S. 
pushing NE winds down the Carolina and Georgia coastal plain into 
our region.

The upper high over the Great Lakes region will weaken on Thursday 
and Friday, so the pattern will start to un-block and deamplify. The 
persistent 500 mb trough over the Southeast U.S. will exit off 
to the northeast. Without upper support, the surface trough north 
of the Bahamas will dissipate, so our low-level flow will become 
more easterly. This will bring a little more maritime influence 
from off the Atlantic, sending dewpoints upward into and/or
through the 60s. PW values will moisten to 1.5+ inches over the 
FL Big Bend and perhaps far south Georgia by Thursday night and 
Friday, supporting the first low-end rain chance in the 7-day 
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Continued VFR thru the period with prevailing NE winds sustained in 
the 10-12-kt range later today. Occasional gusts near 20 kts are 
likely. Minimal cloud cover is expected. Northeast winds slacken
to about 5 kts after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Northeast flow will persist through Wednesday in the gradient 
between high pressure to the north and a persistent trough of low
pressure extending north from the Bahamas. Northeast flow is 
favorable for nighttime and morning surges of wind off the land, 
and relative lulls during the afternoon. Winds will peak as fresh 
breezes during the nocturnal wind surge tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

The prolonged period without rain will continue through at least 
next Thursday, with the next low chance of rain waiting until 
next Friday for our Florida Big Bend districts. Otherwise, gusty 
northeast surface winds will peak in strength this weekend but 
continue through next Wednesday, reinforcing the dry air mass 
across the region. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always 
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they 
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   88  63  89  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Panama City   90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Dothan        88  61  88  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Albany        87  60  88  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Valdosta      87  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Cross City    89  63  90  62 /  10   0  10   0 
Apalachicola  87  67  85  70 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner