715 
FXUS62 KTAE 031412
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
912 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 910 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

 - Fresh to strong northerly breezes over the Gulf waters will
   decrease this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect 
   for the waters west of Apalachicola through this morning.

 - Below normal temperatures will continue through tonight, but a
   warming trend will be underway from Tuesday through at least
   Friday. 

 - Drought conditions will worsen this week, given little or no 
   rain through next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no changes were
needed. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 101 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

A dry reinforcing cold front is currently making headway south
through the SE Big Bend region and over the Gulf waters. In its
wake, a short-lived reinforcement of cooler and drier air will
prevail across the region through tonight. Temperatures will
continue to run about 5-10 degrees below normal. Lows tonight will
most commonly dip into the lower 40s, except warmer at the
beaches.

Otherwise, a modest pick-up in northerly winds will happen today.
A few wind gusts of 20-25 mph can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 101 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Fair and low-impact weather is expected through next weekend. A
warming trend will get underway after Tuesday morning, continuing
all the way until the next cold frontal passage around next
Sunday.

By Tuesday morning, an impressively strong 500 mb ridge will have
developed from Texas all the way across the northern Gulf Coast,
with our 500 mb heights exceeding 5900 meters on Tuesday and
Wednesday. That ridge will weaken and retreat southward into the
Caribbean over the course of Thursday and Friday, allowing heights
to gradually fall and westerly flow aloft to return.

At the surface, high pressure will push across the Southeast
States on Tuesday, causing our low-level flow to clock around
northeasterly. The associated ridge axis will settle south into
South GA/AL on Wed and Thu. With cold advection lacking at this
point and warm air aloft, a moderating trend will be underway.

Surface high pressure will then rebuild out closer to Bermuda on
Friday, bringing a return of maritime-influenced and moister low-
level air. Surface dewpoints are likely to moisten into the 60s on
Friday. This will boost nighttime low temperatures late in the
week. Early morning fog could also start developing and reducing
visibility for drivers.

A fast-moving shortwave in zonal flow aloft will cross the region
on Friday night or Saturday. Though surface dewpoints will have
risen into the 60s, deeper moisture will be lacking. So for now,
only 10-20 percent PoPs are in the forecast, though a greater
percentage of GEFS ensemble members than this have light QPF.

The jet stream pattern across North America will quickly amplify
next weekend, with an amplified longwave trough carving out
across the eastern U.S. by next Sunday. This should push a fairly
strong cold front across the region from northwest to southeast.
Deeper moisture return in advance of the front is questionable, so
the official forecast only has about 10 percent PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Northerly 
winds around 10 kts with occasional gusts around 15-20 knots this 
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Fresh to strong northerly breezes over the waters this morning
will decrease this afternoon, turning northeasterly tonight and
Tuesday as high pressure moves across the Southeast States. Winds
will turn easterly and decrease further on Wednesday and Thursday
in response to a high pressure ridge near the I-10 corridor. High
pressure will rebuild closer to Bermuda on Friday, so winds over
the Gulf waters will turn southeasterly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 101 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

A dry cold front is crossing the region early this morning. In its 
wake today, northerly wind gusts to near 20 mph should be expected. 
The air mass will also be very dry today and Tuesday. High pressure 
will settle overhead on Wednesday and Thursday, leading to light 
winds and lowering daytime dispersion into the fair to perhaps poor 
category. With the loss of dry northerly flow starting Wednesday, 
the air mass will start to slowly moisten. A turn to southeast flow 
on Friday will hasten the moistening trend 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 101 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Little if any rain is expected for at least the next 7 days, and 
no flooding is expected either. 

Drought conditions will therefore worsen through next weekend. 
For more drought information, visit 
www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always 
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they 
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Panama City   69  48  75  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Dothan        68  43  74  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Albany        69  42  75  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Valdosta      69  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0 
Cross City    72  42  77  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Apalachicola  68  50  71  58 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ751-752-
     770-772.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner