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097 FXUS65 KSLC 290941 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 341 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and very dry conditions will continue across Utah and southwest Wyoming through midweek, with just enough instability for isolated high based afternoon convection. Some moisture will move into southeast Utah for the middle to latter part of the week as the remainder of the forecast area stays dry. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...A hot and very dry west to southwest flow aloft remains over Utah and southwest Wyoming this morning under the influence of the broad ridge centered over the south central United States. High temperatures across the area will run near to a few degrees above normal for this time of year with some valleys flirting with the century mark this afternoon, including the Salt Lake Valley. A small amount of high based moisture is on track to advect into southeastern portions of the forecast area by this afternoon. In combination with some weak shortwave energy ejecting from a trough off the California coast, there will be enough in the way of ingredients to produce some isolated convection focused over the higher terrain. Little if any rain is expected with any showers that develop, with gusty winds the main threat with the storms. As the Pacific trough makes its way into the Great Basin on Wednesday, the flow aloft will strengthen and become more southerly, advecting some even drier air into the area. The main impact of this will be to increase the fire danger across the area. Some pockets of critical fire weather conditions are anticipated today, but will be more widespread tomorrow. See the fire weather section of the AFD for more details. Despite the drier airmass, vort lobes from the trough will continue to move through the area, so cannot rule out isolated high based convection once again. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Over much of the long-term period, the upper-level pattern will remain largely unchanged, with a broad ridge to our east and a strong low over the northeastern Pacific, leaving Utah in broad southwesterly flow. The only change is perhaps becoming more zonal over the weekend as the low gradually shifts eastward towards western Canada. Models continue to favor a drier solution this week, with moisture struggling to make it out of the Four Corners region. Still, some models are holding onto a slightly higher increase in moisture between Thursday and Saturday, which could contribute to higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Even so, the main threat will likely be dry microbursts, given moisture limitations even in the wettest scenario. By Sunday, models are in great agreement that southern Utah will likely dry back out as mid-level flow shifts more westerly, with very weak moisture filtering into northwestern Utah. The next solid chance for more precipitation appears to be later next week across southern Utah, however model spread is still quite high at this time. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Southeasterly winds will continue through the morning, increasing with gusts to around 20kts after 17z. There is low confidence once again in wind direction later in the afternoon; winds could shift northwesterly as early as 21z, or not at all. Currently, the most likely timing is a wind shift around 23z. VFR conditions will prevail. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Conditions will remain largely similar to yesterday across much of the area, with breezy southwesterly winds during the afternoon and elevated smoke producing hazy skies across much of central/eastern Utah. MVFR-IFR VIS/CIGs will once again be possible in close proximity to local wildfires. Areas north of I-70 and east of Utah's spine of mountains may see isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms develop after 20z. Any storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 40kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will keep conditions over the majority of the state very dry through Wednesday, particularly across western Utah. A small amount of moisture will creep into southeast Utah this afternoon before the airmass dries further areawide for Wednesday. With a bit less wind today, fire danger will be slightly lower than Monday, but the very dry conditions will continue to result in critical fire weather conditions over portions of southern Utah. With the airmass becoming even drier with very poor overnight recoveries and increasing winds, critical fire weather conditions will be more widespread on Wednesday. Moisture will then increase somewhat again over southeast Utah for the latter part of the week as the remainder of the state remains quite dry. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ493-495-496. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan LONG TERM/AVIATION...Cunningham For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity