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097 
FXUS65 KSLC 290941
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
341 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and very dry conditions will continue across Utah
and southwest Wyoming through midweek, with just enough
instability for isolated high based afternoon convection. Some
moisture will move into southeast Utah for the middle to latter
part of the week as the remainder of the forecast area stays dry. 

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...A hot and very dry west
to southwest flow aloft remains over Utah and southwest Wyoming
this morning under the influence of the broad ridge centered over
the south central United States. High temperatures across the area
will run near to a few degrees above normal for this time of year
with some valleys flirting with the century mark this afternoon,
including the Salt Lake Valley. A small amount of high based
moisture is on track to advect into southeastern portions of the
forecast area by this afternoon. In combination with some weak
shortwave energy ejecting from a trough off the California coast,
there will be enough in the way of ingredients to produce some
isolated convection focused over the higher terrain. Little if any
rain is expected with any showers that develop, with gusty winds
the main threat with the storms. 

As the Pacific trough makes its way into the Great Basin on
Wednesday, the flow aloft will strengthen and become more
southerly, advecting some even drier air into the area. The main
impact of this will be to increase the fire danger across the
area. Some pockets of critical fire weather conditions are
anticipated today, but will be more widespread tomorrow. See the
fire weather section of the AFD for more details. Despite the
drier airmass, vort lobes from the trough will continue to move
through the area, so cannot rule out isolated high based
convection once again. 

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Over much of the long-term 
period, the upper-level pattern will remain largely unchanged, with 
a broad ridge to our east and a strong low over the northeastern 
Pacific, leaving Utah in broad southwesterly flow. The only change 
is perhaps becoming more zonal over the weekend as the low gradually 
shifts eastward towards western Canada.

Models continue to favor a drier solution this week, with moisture 
struggling to make it out of the Four Corners region. Still, some 
models are holding onto a slightly higher increase in moisture 
between Thursday and Saturday, which could contribute to higher 
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Even so, the main threat will 
likely be dry microbursts, given moisture limitations even in the 
wettest scenario. By Sunday, models are in great agreement that 
southern Utah will likely dry back out as mid-level flow shifts more 
westerly, with very weak moisture filtering into northwestern Utah. 

The next solid chance for more precipitation appears to be later 
next week across southern Utah, however model spread is still quite 
high at this time. 

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southeasterly winds will continue through the 
morning, increasing with gusts to around 20kts after 17z. There is 
low confidence once again in wind direction later in the afternoon; 
winds could shift northwesterly as early as 21z, or not at all. 
Currently, the most likely timing is a wind shift around 23z. VFR 
conditions will prevail.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Conditions will remain largely 
similar to yesterday across much of the area, with breezy 
southwesterly winds during the afternoon and elevated smoke 
producing hazy skies across much of central/eastern Utah. MVFR-IFR 
VIS/CIGs will once again be possible in close proximity to local 
wildfires. Areas north of I-70 and east of Utah's spine of mountains 
may see isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms develop after 
20z. Any storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic 
outflow winds up to 40kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will keep conditions over the majority
of the state very dry through Wednesday, particularly across 
western Utah. A small amount of moisture will creep into southeast
Utah this afternoon before the airmass dries further areawide for
Wednesday. With a bit less wind today, fire danger will be
slightly lower than Monday, but the very dry conditions will
continue to result in critical fire weather conditions over
portions of southern Utah. With the airmass becoming even drier
with very poor overnight recoveries and increasing winds, critical
fire weather conditions will be more widespread on Wednesday.
Moisture will then increase somewhat again over southeast Utah for
the latter part of the week as the remainder of the state remains
quite dry. 

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ493-495-496.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity