673 
FXUS61 KRNK 031722
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1222 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue for most of the upcoming week. A 
frontal system this coming weekend will provide the next 
widespread chance of rainfall. Near to above normal temperatures
are expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Monday...

Key Message:

1) No weather hazards this period.

Low clouds have hampered temperatures across southeast WV and
portions of southwest VA through midday, and model solutions
having a hard time with it as they try to scour it out sooner
than vis satellite indicates. Enough mixing of drier air should
disperse these clouds this afternoon but cannot rule out that
some low clouds linger into tonight. A west-northwest breeze
this afternoon will start to subside overnight tonight except
along the higher ridges as high pressure builds in from the
southwest. Lows will be in the 30s for most areas.

Jet induced high clouds are likely at times Tuesday though
sunshine will be prevalent most of the day with temperatures
rising to near normal in the mid 50s to near 60 west, to mid 60s
east.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Gusty winds through Wednesday.

2. Dry weather for most, slight chance for isolated showers in SE WV 
late Wednesday. 

3. Temperatures trending to above normal.

A broad area of high pressure will be centered over the southern Mid 
Atlantic and southeastern US by Wednesday, with westerly prevailing 
flow aloft. A large 500mb trough will amplify as it moves across the 
Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic through the middle of the work 
week. The surface low will bring a cold front through the region 
late Wednesday night into Thursday as it moves in a similar path as 
the associated upper trough. Plenty of dry air over the area will 
keep precipitation chances confined to parts of southeast WV, mainly 
western Greenbrier County, where there may be just enough moisture 
advected from the Great Lakes to produce isolated upslope showers in 
that area. However, rain accumulations, if any, will be light at 
best, less than a 10% probability of 24 hour rainfall accumulations 
exceeding 0.1" in far western Greenbrier. 

The main impact from this system will be strong, gusty winds, as 
most areas along and west of the Blue Ridge have at least a 25% 
probability of gusts exceeding 30 mph, and some parts of Greenbrier 
County have a 40% probability of wind gusts greater than 40 mph. 
Another surface high builds into the area from the west following 
the frontal passage, and winds will relax Thursday morning. 

Temperatures trend warmer than normal by Wednesday, with strong 
southwesterly flow, highs in the low to mid 60s in the west to low 
70s in the east. Highs Thursday will be closer to normal, in the mid 
to upper 50s in the west and mid 60s in the east. Lows will be in 
the 30s and 40s each night, but warmer Wednesday night/Thursday 
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of Noon EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures through the weekend.

2. Strong cold front early next week to bring a chance of mountain 
snow and much colder temperatures.

 
High pressure will shift east into the Atlantic by Friday with 
increasing southerly flow in advance of an approaching front from 
the west. This will result in warm temperatures on Friday that are 
well above normal. Some variation in rainfall coverage on Friday 
night with the passage of the front, but overall the timing of the 
frontal passage seems to be late Friday and into early Saturday.

Flow behind the front will remain westerly on Saturday and the 
airmass still remains relatively warm. Expecting dry and breezy 
conditions. Southwest flow increases again as a deep trough begins 
to amplify across the Great Plains on Sunday. Guidance has been 
consistent in showing a strong system impacting the region Sunday 
and Monday, but still struggling a bit with timing and precipitation 
amounts. However, most guidance does indicate a very strong cold 
front will move through by Monday, bringing with it a sharp drop in 
temperatures and the first widespread chance of upslope snow for the 
western mountains. 

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1220 PM EST Monday...

Low ceilings at BLF should clear by 21z. Otherwise VFR 
everywhere as high pressure builds in. Some indication for
possible low clouds again tonight at BLF, but leaning toward dry
air keeping cloud cover limited.

Westerly winds will be gusty today, up to 20 to 25 kts by late 
morning through tonight, especially in the mountains. Winds 
will gradually decrease overnight. 

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... 

VFR likely throughout the week. Gusty winds possible again by 
Wednesday from a mostly dry frontal passage.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...SH/WP