706 
FXUS61 KRLX 040149
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
849 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Front crosses Thursday morning, with light snow shower 
activity. Additional systems possible late this week and early 
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 845 PM Wednesday...

A special weather statement will remain in effect into Thursday
morning for the anticipated burst of snowfall expected with a
cold front. Models currently project this snow to arrive to our
Ohio counties between 4am-6am, then moving WNW to ESE across our
area. Currently, SE Ohio, northern WV and the northeastern
mountains have the highest probabilities for seeing accumulations
associated with this wave of snowfall. Amounts will be light, 
generally less than an inch, but most of this will be falling in
a short amount of time and during the morning commute.

As of 1230 PM Wednesday...

High pressure in control across the area today will provide dry 
conditions. Widespread low cloud cover across the area is much
slower to erode than the models have been indicating, but it is
finally showing some signs across the south. Extended the period
of mostly cloudy sky conditions from previous forecast, with the
possibility that not everywhere will totally clear, before
additional clouds filter in from the north again with the 
approach of a cold front. This will spread light snow showers 
back into the area for Thursday, primarily across northern 
zones, but possible much of the CWA. Generally less than half 
an inch of accumulation is anticipated at this time. This could 
cause some impacts on untreated roadways Thursday morning, and 
have elected to issue a special weather statement to highlight 
this potential. Temperatures will remain near to or slightly 
below average for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1238 PM Wednesday...

Friday morning will be quite cold behind Thursdays frontal passage, 
with lows in the teens, to possibly the single digits across the 
north. Focus on Friday then shifts to a system that will move east 
across the Gulf States. Still uncertainty in how far north the 
precipitation shield will make it, with continued run to run 
inconsistencies in the models. In addition, precipitation type is 
also a bit uncertain at times/in spots, depending on moisture 
profile/depth, and whether there will be much in the way of crystal 
growth. Models still overall continue the drier trend, with greater 
chances mainly along our extreme southern/mountain zones. In fact, 
much of the area may remain mostly dry. However, the blend of 
models continues to paint much of the CWA with a chance of pops,
with liklies across the south on Friday, and will maintain, as
there continues to be uncertainty. System will depart to the 
east Friday evening into Saturday, with drier conditions taking 
hold.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

The weekend still looks to be rather uncertain, but appears to be 
trending drier. Another system may affect the area early next week, 
providing another round of wintry weather to the area, but even this 
is highly variable between the different model solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 711 PM Wednesday...

MVFR ceilings are still persisting across the lowlands, with the
mountains (BKW, EKN) finally improving to VFR. The general trend
is that ceilings will continue to gradually rise throughout the
evening, with a few sites possibly returning to VFR. 

Around or after ~06z a crossing cold front will reintroduce 
lower ceilings (MVFR or lower) with a burst of snow sweeping 
across the forecast area from WNW to ESE between ~06z and ~15z 
this morning. There is higher confidence in impacts and 
accumulations at CKB, EKN, and PKB as a result. Entered PROB30 
groups for sites of less confidence.

After ~15-16z, snow showers will become confined to the 
northeastern mountains with MVFR ceilings remaining across the 
area as well until at least late afternoon. Afterwards, models 
start showing a west to east improvement with MVFR only 
remaining at BKW, EKN, and maybe CRW.

Light surface winds tonight. Winds will become breezy to gusty 
starting tomorrow morning as a NW'rly shift occurs. Gusts
between 15 and 20 knots are possible across the mountains
tomorrow afternoon.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of low
ceilings and snow showers tonight and Thursday may vary from
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in a wintry mix Friday and Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC