964 
FXUS63 KUNR 150847 RRA
AFDRAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 AM MDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...SOME BIG CHANGES MADE TO FCST STARTING THU NIGHT THRU 
SAT AS MDLS COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH PLENTY OF COLDER AIR MOVING 
INTO REGION ALONG WITH DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY 
THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR WY/SD BORDER EXTENDING UP 
INTO ERN MT. THIS FRONT WL MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. 
THIS WL COOL TEMPS OFF 5 TO 10 DEG FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS EXCEPT IN S 
CTRL WHERE THEY SHOULD GET TO THE LWR 80S AGAIN. THERE WL BE A FEW 
SHWRS MVG ACROSS NW SD AS WELL THROUGH THE MRNG AS JET STREAK MOVES 
ACROSS AREA. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THEN BY AFTN 
WITH GD SUBSIDENCE OVER AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO BE ON THE BREEZY 
SIDE...ESP OVR SD PLNS. TNGT CWA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF RRQ OF JET 
AND UPR TROF WL SLOWLY DIG IN ACROSS NRN ROCKIES. THIS WL LEAD TO 
INCREASING MID LVL CLOUDS. THINK THEY WL BE THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP 
LOWS FROM FALLING QUITE AS FAR AS GUIDANCE HAS...ESP OVR WRN CWA. 
GFS AND ETA DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF MCS DVLPG OVER NE AFT 06Z. GIVEN 
PLACEMENT OF LLJ AND INSTABILITY AXIS...THINK THE ETA IS TOO FAR N 
WITH PRECIP AND HAVE KEPT FCST DRY OVERNIGHT. 

MID LVL CLDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WED AND WITH NELY 
WINDS ACROSS AREA THINK TEMPS WL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE 70S. 
MAINLY WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S...DID GO AROUND 70 FAR 
NW WHERE IT LKS LIKE THE CLDS WL BE MVG OUT IN THE AFTN. CLDS WL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF CWA FM N TO S DURING THE EVENING HOURS 
ALLOWING FOR PTLY CLDY TO MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND TEMPS TO FALL INTO 
THE 40S. 

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WL MOVE THROUGH THU AND BRING A CHC FOR SHWRS AND 
TSMS TO THE AREA. BOTH MDLS SHOWING NICE S/W MVG ACROSS AREA THU 
NIGHT THRU FRI. HAVE GONE WITH 30-40 POPS FOR NOW...BUT IF MDLS 
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WITH NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS...WL PROBABLY RAISE 
TO LIKELY. THIS PRECIP WL KEEP TEMPS PRETTY COOL AGAIN FOR FRI WITH 
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO WARM INTO THE LWR 60S MANY PLACES. IF GFS UPR 
LVL TEMPS ARE RIGHT...COULD SEE SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS 
FO THE BLACK HILLS. UPR TROF SLOW TO MOVE THRU WITH COOL TEMPS 
REMAINING THRU AT LEAST SAT WITH A WARMUP STARTING SUN ALONG WITH 
DRIER CONDS.

&&

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.SD...NONE.
.WY...NONE.

$$

JMG