590 
FXUS62 KRAH 112100
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across and offshore NC through Friday 
morning. A warm front will develop northward across southern NC 
Friday afternoon, ahead of a clipper low that will track along it 
and offshore Friday night. Weak high pressure will follow for 
Saturday. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

* No impact flurries or patchy light snow late tonight

Heights aloft will rise throughout the South and Middle Atlantic 
states behind an anomalously strong mid/upr-level cyclone forecast 
to progress across the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Within that regime of 
rising heights, intense low/mid-level WAA, now centered with an 
associated precipitation shield across IA/MO, will progress sewd and 
across the TN and OH Valleys tonight and into wrn and cntl NC by Fri 
morning. 

At the surface, a 1018 mb high now over the lwr OH and TN Valleys 
will progress ewd and into cntl and ern NC tonight, downstream of a 
clipper low that will develop esewd and across the mid MS Valley. 

Initially mainly clear skies, and developing calm after sunset, will 
favor excellent radiational cooling and decreasing temperatures 
into the upr 20s-low 30s this evening. 

Multi-layered ceilings will then overspread cntl NC overnight, 
lowest and with greatest lift and saturation in a 5-10 thousand ft 
layer centered around 700 mb, where temperatures will range from 
around minus 6 C at its base to minus 12 C at its top. The cloud 
layer should consequently be a precipitation-producing one and with 
a shallow dendritic growth zone near its top. However, that mid-
level-centered lift and saturation will exist above a substantial, 
~6-8 thousand ft sub-cloud and deeply dry layer; and as such, mostly 
virga will result. The exception will be patchy light snow and/or 
flurries that may reach the ground over the nrn Piedmont, and nrn 
Coastal Plain around daybreak (roughly north of US 64), where the 
cloud/precipitation band will be maximized in both (relative) 
intensity and duration, and where associated top-down moistening 
will likewise be maximized. While surface temperatures will probably 
steady or rise slightly as clouds thicken, to around or perhaps just 
above freezing, partial thickness values and the top-down approach 
both favor snow as the predominant p-type. Given the expected very 
light nature of any snow that may reach the surface, little to no 
snow accumulation is expected. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Thursday...

*  No, to very low, impact light snow/flurries possible across the 
   far nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain Fri morning

The low/mid-level WAA regime described above will continue to 
translate enewd and across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic Fri, 
amid otherwise broadly cyclonic that will remain in place.

At the surface, a warm front will develop northward across southern 
NC Friday afternoon, ahead of a weakening clipper low that will 
track along it and offshore through Friday night. Weak high pressure 
will follow and settle overhead by early Sat. 

The cloud and precipitation band forecast to overspread cntl NC 
tonight, related to the aforementioned strong low/mid-level WAA, 
will persist especially over nrn NC through midday Fri, then 
gradually lift newd and across VA and offshore through early Fri 
night. Even the wetter NWP guidance depict less than 0.05" liquid 
equivalent precipitation over the far nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal 
Plain between 12-18Z Fri. Little to no snow accumulation should 
result given both very light liquid equivalent amounts and also 
surface temperatures that will likely be rising through the low-mid 
30s through the morning. The reasonable worst case scenario would be 
a light coating of a tenth on an inch or three mainly on elevated 
surfaces near the VA border between 7 AM and 11 AM, with probability 
of occurrence of that worst case only 10-20 percent. 

A sharp gradient in both cloud cover, and surface temperatures owing 
to differential diabatic heating and associated Fgen across the 
surface frontal zone over srn NC, will result over cntl NC on Fri. 
Temperatures Fri will consequently display a large range from upr 
30s near the VA border to 50-55 F over the srn Piedmont and srn 
Sandhills. 

Deep layer clearing will favor mainly clear skies Fri night; and a 
plume of high-level moisture along a wnwly upr jet axis will 
probably produce periods of only thin cirrus and cirrostratus 
overnight. Strong radiational cooling will consequently be likely, 
as the aforementioned weak high settles overhead behind the passing 
and weakening clipper low. Patchy fog and/or low stratus may result 
Sat morning, with low temperatures in the mid 20s to lwr 30s.  

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 138 PM Wednesday... 

Saturday through Monday: After a relatively mild (highs in the lower 
50s) and dry Saturday under zonal flow aloft, an anomalous upper 
trough will eject out of central Canada and dive southeast across 
the eastern US through Monday evening. Associated cold air will 
spill down the east coast with some of the coldest air of the season 
(850 mb temperatures will fall into the 1st to 2nd percentile 
compared to climatology by Sunday night).

At the sfc, models have come into better agreement moving the arctic 
front into central NC a bit early in the day Sunday. As such, 
guidance has come in colder for highs on Sunday with highs in the 
mid to upper 30s across the north, to mid 40s across the south. The 
CAA will really ramp up Sunday afternoon into early Monday, with 
lows dropping into the mid to upper teens Sunday night/Monday 
morning. Forecast soundings still indicate good post-frontal mixing 
potential through sunrise Monday morning. If the cold air does 
indeed make it over the mountain early Monday morning, there could 
be a a brief period where some locations may flirt with Cold Weather 
Advisory apparent temperatures. Will continue to monitor as we get 
closer to this weekend, but regardless Monday morning should be 
quite chilly. 

The frontal passage should be accompanied with some anomalous 
moisture and light precipitation (although the GFS is less bullish 
on precipitation). Depending on the timing of the precipitation, 
there could be a transition to wintry ptype on the backside of the 
exiting light precipitation band across the northern 
Piedmont/Coastal Plain. However, not confident in 1) how much 
precipitation will occur, and 2) whether it'll catch the cold air or 
not. Overall though, qpf amounts are minimal right now. 

Highs on Monday will only reach the mid 30s with PWAT dropping to 20 
% of normal.

Tuesday through Thursday: After another chilly night Monday into 
Tuesday (lows into the upper teens/low 20s), return sswly flow will 
develop pushing highs into the upper 40s Tuesday and mid 50s 
Wednesday. Another short-wave may approach next Wednesday and 
Thursday which could be our next shot at any precipitation beyond 
this coming Sunday. 


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Thursday... 

Gusty nwly surface winds this afternoon will diminish at sunset. 
Initially mostly clear skies will fill with mid-level ceilings 
overnight, as strong, warm air advection-induced lift overspreads 
the region. A band of snow and flight restrictions will accompany 
that lift across VA late tonight-Fri, the srn periphery of which may 
glance nrn NC terminals with a period of light snow or flurries from 
5-8 thousand ft ceilings in the several hours centered around 12Z 
Fri. 

Outlook: Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible Sat morning, 
behind a passing clipper low and as following, weak high pressure 
settles over the region. A warm front and lift will result in a 
chance of rain and flight restrictions Sat night-early Sun, followed 
by strong and gusty nnwly surface winds behind a passing, Arctic 
cold front Sun afternoon into Sunday night. 

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS