National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2018-11-14 23:40 UTC
113 FXUS64 KOUN 142340 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 540 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018 .DISCUSSION... 00Z TAFs. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected with few (if any) clouds tonight or tomorrow. Light winds will shift around to southerly through the night, then increase somewhat Thursday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018/ DISCUSSION... Most of the weekend snow has melted in our forecast area. Satellite still shows a little coverage in the far northwest, between Gage and Buffalo. This should have little or no significant effect on temperatures after this evening. A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern Oklahoma tomorrow, blunting the warmup that will take temperatures elsewhere back closer to seasonal averages. A stronger cold front will arrive in the north early Saturday, then quickly move southeast during the day. Timing of this front, along with its specific effects, remains somewhat unclear. Have tended toward the faster and more active NAM model, given its better low-level resolution and general better performance with the arrival of significantly colder airmasses. Raw model data suggests that northern Oklahoma may not get out of the 30s F on Saturday, while clouds and cold drizzle block warming effects of the sun. This scenario is likely in the far northwest, and a significant chance as far south as Cheyenne to Watonga to Stillwater. Our current forecast isn't quite that extreme...at least not yet. In the wake of that front, cold air will cover the region again on Sunday, keeping maximum temperatures generally in the 30s F north of I-40, and 40s F to the south. After a quick warmup early next week, models show a strong storm system developing midweek. Timing, location, and intensity of its features remain very unclear, as ensemble forecasts are highly divergent by the middle of next week. CmS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 27 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 29 61 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 30 64 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 28 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 24 52 30 54 / 0 0 10 0 Durant OK 28 58 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$