National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2018-06-19 04:18 UTC

FXUS64 KOUN 190418

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1118 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

06Z TAFs.


As expected, stratus is moving north through Texas and should
spread into KSPS and much of Oklahoma Tuesday morning with areas
of MVFR ceilings.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 808 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ 

00Z TAFs.

The thunderstorms that developed this afternoon across western
Oklahoma and west Texas are dissipating and should not pose any
concern for the TAF sites this evening. Low-level moisture
increases this evening and will bring a decent potential for some
MVFR ceilings Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ 

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in
a corridor of enhanced mid-level vorticity from the eastern Texas
panhandle, north-northeastward into north central Oklahoma. 
Slightly cooler mid-level temperatures are co-located in this 
area. There is also a chance of isolated showers/storms may 
develop across far southeast Oklahoma. Expect all convection to be
diurnally driven with dissipation this evening. 

Isolated showers/storms may develop Tuesday afternoon across 
southern Oklahoma/north Texas in association with an area of 
higher precipitable water values/deeper moisture. Most locations 
should remain dry Tuesday afternoon. 

For Tuesday night, an MCS is forecast to develop across Kansas 
and Nebraska as a shortwave trough ejects into the Central Plains.
The MCS is expected to move southeastward Tuesday night into 
Wednesday morning. Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be 
possible across northwestern Oklahoma as this complex of 
thunderstorms moves southward; however, decreasing elevated 
instability and effective bulk shear with southward extent should 
promote a weakening trend once the complex approaches Oklahoma. 

A surface boundary/effective cold front in association with this 
MCS should be located somewhere in the state of Oklahoma during 
the daytime hours Wednesday. The location of this boundary will 
modulate where convection will develop Wednesday afternoon. 
Current indications on the various models suggest the boundary may
set up somewhere in the vicinity of I-44. This is where 
showers/storms may develop Wednesday afternoon. Effective bulk 
shear of ~25 knots and MLCAPE ~1500 J/kg suggests that some 
strong to severe storms will be possible. Locally heavy rainfall 
will be possible as well with precipitable water values at or 
greater than 1.75". There is a chance that if a weakening complex
in the morning regenerates in the afternoon that there could be 
an area that seems very little or no rainfall from this event.

Model trends suggest that relatively dry weather will occur 
Thursday and most of Friday in the wake of Wednesday's system. 
There is chance Friday night into Saturday morning that another 
MCS may affect at least northern Oklahoma as a shortwave trough 
passes by the Central Plains. This MCS could leave another 
boundary in the area that may result in at least isolated 
thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. 

MCS(s) may remain possible--especially near the Kansas/Oklahoma 
border--into early next week as the Southern Plains is forecast to
remain on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow. 



Oklahoma City OK  72  88  72  87 /  10  10  10  50 
Hobart OK         74  92  72  90 /  10  10  10  40 
Wichita Falls TX  73  90  72  91 /  10  20  10  30 
Gage OK           72  94  68  86 /  20  10  50  50 
Ponca City OK     74  90  72  85 /  10  10  20  40 
Durant OK         72  85  72  84 /  20  30  10  40