National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2018-06-19 04:18 UTC
812 FXUS64 KOUN 190418 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1118 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 .DISCUSSION... 06Z TAFs. && .AVIATION... As expected, stratus is moving north through Texas and should spread into KSPS and much of Oklahoma Tuesday morning with areas of MVFR ceilings. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 808 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ DISCUSSION... 00Z TAFs. AVIATION... The thunderstorms that developed this afternoon across western Oklahoma and west Texas are dissipating and should not pose any concern for the TAF sites this evening. Low-level moisture increases this evening and will bring a decent potential for some MVFR ceilings Tuesday morning. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ DISCUSSION... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in a corridor of enhanced mid-level vorticity from the eastern Texas panhandle, north-northeastward into north central Oklahoma. Slightly cooler mid-level temperatures are co-located in this area. There is also a chance of isolated showers/storms may develop across far southeast Oklahoma. Expect all convection to be diurnally driven with dissipation this evening. Isolated showers/storms may develop Tuesday afternoon across southern Oklahoma/north Texas in association with an area of higher precipitable water values/deeper moisture. Most locations should remain dry Tuesday afternoon. For Tuesday night, an MCS is forecast to develop across Kansas and Nebraska as a shortwave trough ejects into the Central Plains. The MCS is expected to move southeastward Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across northwestern Oklahoma as this complex of thunderstorms moves southward; however, decreasing elevated instability and effective bulk shear with southward extent should promote a weakening trend once the complex approaches Oklahoma. A surface boundary/effective cold front in association with this MCS should be located somewhere in the state of Oklahoma during the daytime hours Wednesday. The location of this boundary will modulate where convection will develop Wednesday afternoon. Current indications on the various models suggest the boundary may set up somewhere in the vicinity of I-44. This is where showers/storms may develop Wednesday afternoon. Effective bulk shear of ~25 knots and MLCAPE ~1500 J/kg suggests that some strong to severe storms will be possible. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well with precipitable water values at or greater than 1.75". There is a chance that if a weakening complex in the morning regenerates in the afternoon that there could be an area that seems very little or no rainfall from this event. Model trends suggest that relatively dry weather will occur Thursday and most of Friday in the wake of Wednesday's system. There is chance Friday night into Saturday morning that another MCS may affect at least northern Oklahoma as a shortwave trough passes by the Central Plains. This MCS could leave another boundary in the area that may result in at least isolated thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. MCS(s) may remain possible--especially near the Kansas/Oklahoma border--into early next week as the Southern Plains is forecast to remain on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 72 88 72 87 / 10 10 10 50 Hobart OK 74 92 72 90 / 10 10 10 40 Wichita Falls TX 73 90 72 91 / 10 20 10 30 Gage OK 72 94 68 86 / 20 10 50 50 Ponca City OK 74 90 72 85 / 10 10 20 40 Durant OK 72 85 72 84 / 20 30 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$