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191 FXUS64 KOUN 302355 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts the main hazard. - Low (10-30%) chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms continue through the week into the weekend. - Humid conditions continue, with heat indices near 100 degrees most afternoons. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Storms are expected to develop along an outflow boundary this afternoon and evening, generally south of I-40. With sufficient instability, high PWATs, and little wind shear (resulting in pulse storms with little movement), downbursts and localized flooding will again be the main risks with these storms, though some hail with the stronger storms cannot be ruled out as well. This activity is expected to shift south through the evening and dissipate overnight. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 By Tuesday morning, most of our rain chances will have shifted southward leaving only low chances mainly across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Timing-wise, this would include any lingering showers in the morning followed by any redevelopment in the afternoon. That being said, most of the CAMs keep us dry all day. Temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly cooler with highs primarily in the upper 80s to low 90s (due to the passage of a cold front the night before). Temperatures start gradually warming back up on Wednesday. Ridging will keep us mostly dry, though we will still maintain some low chances for rain. Day && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 The center of the upper ridge will reposition itself to our south and east mid to late week, allowing for low chances of showers and storms to continue through the end of week. A trough is forecast to cross the area by the weekend, which may bring more widespread shower and storm activity to the region, though models disagree somewhat on the strength and timing of this trough. Temperatures will remain near seasonal average through the end of the week, generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, then warm into the mid to upper 90s by the weekend. Ware && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A line of convection, currently nearing the Red River, will offer varied category potential (along with gusty winds) at KSPS/KLAW/KDUA through about 03-04 UTC this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period with a modest north/northeast wind and mid/high clouds. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 70 87 70 89 / 30 10 20 20 Hobart OK 70 89 70 92 / 50 20 30 20 Wichita Falls TX 72 91 73 94 / 50 20 10 10 Gage OK 66 87 67 88 / 10 10 30 20 Ponca City OK 67 87 67 88 / 10 0 10 20 Durant OK 73 92 73 95 / 40 20 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...09