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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2018-11-14 23:40 UTC


113 
FXUS64 KOUN 142340
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
540 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected with few (if any) clouds tonight or
tomorrow. Light winds will shift around to southerly through the
night, then increase somewhat Thursday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Most of the weekend snow has melted in our forecast area.
Satellite still shows a little coverage in the far northwest,
between Gage and Buffalo. This should have little or no
significant effect on temperatures after this evening.

A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern Oklahoma
tomorrow, blunting the warmup that will take temperatures 
elsewhere back closer to seasonal averages.

A stronger cold front will arrive in the north early Saturday, 
then quickly move southeast during the day. Timing of this front, 
along with its specific effects, remains somewhat unclear. Have 
tended toward the faster and more active NAM model, given its 
better low-level resolution and general better performance with 
the arrival of significantly colder airmasses. Raw model data 
suggests that northern Oklahoma may not get out of the 30s F on 
Saturday, while clouds and cold drizzle block warming effects of 
the sun. This scenario is likely in the far northwest, and a 
significant chance as far south as Cheyenne to Watonga to 
Stillwater. Our current forecast isn't quite that extreme...at 
least not yet.

In the wake of that front, cold air will cover the region again on
Sunday, keeping maximum temperatures generally in the 30s F north
of I-40, and 40s F to the south.

After a quick warmup early next week, models show a strong storm
system developing midweek. Timing, location, and intensity of its
features remain very unclear, as ensemble forecasts are highly
divergent by the middle of next week.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  27  58  33  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         29  61  34  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  30  64  37  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           28  58  29  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     24  52  30  54 /   0   0  10   0 
Durant OK         28  58  38  66 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$