National Weather Service Raw Text Product

040 
FXUS63 KOAX 080750
AFDOMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS MORNING AGAIN SURROUNDS FRONTAL PLACEMENT 
AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE 
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  MAY NEED TO KEEP A 
SMALL POP THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST NEBRAKA...THOUGH CURRENT TREND 
HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO 
THE CWA.  THINK THIS TREND SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS THE LOW 
LEVEL JET RETREATS SOUTH AND THE STORMS LOSE THEIR SUPPORT.  

DECIDED TO FOLLOW MAINLY A 00Z GFS SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL 
PLACEMENT TODAY AS THE ETA LOOKS TO SUFFER FROM THE MORNING 
CONVECTION.  IN PARTICULAR IT TRIES TO DRIVE THE MORNING CONVECTION 
SOUTH AND THEN DEVLOP A SECOND BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS AND 
NEBRASKA BORDER.  THE GFS AND MM5 DIFFER FROM THE ETA AND DONT 
DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY.  THEY ALSO TEND TO FOCUS THE BEST 
RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST 
NEBRASKA TODAY INTO WEDNEDAY.  HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTH 
THROUGH WEDNEDAY FOR THAT REASON.   LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO 
COVER THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH THE GOING FORECAST MAY LINGER THE POPS 
A BIT TOO LONG INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE...THOUGH 
IF CURRENT FASTER TREND HOLDS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE TWEEKED LATER.  

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS REASONABLE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL 
SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  IT THEN LOOKS 
TO DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.   

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

NOTE...EFFECTIVE 1200 UTC JUNE 8TH THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER
/PID/ FOR THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY OMAHA WFO WILL
CHANGE TO OMAAFDOAX.  THE WMO CODE WILL REMAIN FXUS63 KOAX.

$$

KING