227 
FXUS63 KOAX 111034
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
534 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty 25 to 30 mph winds expected for most areas Friday with
  highs in the mid to upper 80s. 15-20% chance for some storms
  Friday evening, some of which could be severe with large hail
  and strong wind gusts.

- Active pattern continues with more storm chances this weekend
  into much of next week. Some storms could be severe Saturday 
  evening and again Monday.

- Highs reach the 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday, followed 
  by a brief warm up Monday, then cooling down to the 60s to low
  70s Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

03z RAP objective analysis reveals weak H5 ridging across the 
Northern Plains, while to the west, a shortwave trof over western 
Wyoming has spun up a sfc low. The 1017 mb sfc high which brought 
our fantastic weather on Thursday has finally pushed off to the
east, resulting in a pressure gradient setting up across much 
of Nebraska into the Dakotas. This will result in south 
southwesterly winds gradually increasing into the early morning
hours Friday. Increased PBL mixing by the late morning and 
afternoon to just around H8 where a 30 to 40 kt LLJ is should 
help bring some more momentum downward, resulting in frequent 
gusts of 35 to 40 mph across far northeast Nebraska. Expect 
slightly lower gusts of 25 to 30 mph for the remainder of the 
area. Highs warm to the upper 80s to low 90s with a few passing
clouds.

By late Friday afternoon into the evening hours, will see the sfc 
cold front swing through the forecast area while the parent low 
tracks over eastern SD into southwest MN. Forcing along the frontal 
feature combined with weak large scale forcing for ascent from the 
H5 wave could spark some convection. Model guidance indicates an
instability plume of 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg overspreading much of 
northeast Nebraska Friday evening, and with 0-6 km shear of 30 
to 35 kts, can't rule out seeing strong to severe convection. 
However, newest 00z hires CAMs seem to struggle developing much 
convection in the forecast area. 

Forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest some CIN of 150 to 200 J/kg 
remaining in the low levels, and with the bulk of large scale 
forcing for ascent tied to the stronger H5 wave in the eastern 
Dakotas and MN, convection may struggle to get going across our 
area. If we can manage to get convection, the main threat would 
likely be damaging wind gusts given low level dry air noted by 
soundings and also large hail with steep H7-H5 lapse rates 
approaching 8 C/km. More redevelopment is plausible into early 
Saturday morning, particularly across the southern half of the 
forecast area as H8 WAA lingers there along with another weak H5
wave traversing the westerly flow. With this update, have kept 
PoPs at 15 to 20% from 00z to 11z Saturday given the low 
confidence in storms developing, and have confined the PoPs to 
the frontal area.

Saturday will see the sfc frontal feature linger across the border 
in Kansas and Missouri. Looking aloft, could still see some remnant 
WAA driven forcing in the late morning hours that could spark more 
convection (PoPs of 15 to 30% primarily over southeast Nebraska into 
southwest Iowa). By the late afternoon, will see more instability 
pool near and along that frontal zone. RAP forecast soundings 
along the southern Nebraska/Kansas border area show instability
ranging from 1,500 to 2,000 J/kg, but some CIN/capping is 
seen too. Large scale forcing still appears to lack around this
timeframe too with subtle H5 height rises progged over the 
area, which could limit the storm threat. If storms can develop,
the 0-6 km bulk shear of around 30 kts could promote a few 
strong storms in that general vicinity capable of strong wind 
gusts and large hail as we'll have fairly long hodographs and 
steep H7-H5 lapse rates near 8 C/km. At this time, PoPs remain 
at 20 to 30% along and south of Interstate 80. Expect cooler 
highs in the mid 70s, while highs near 80F are forecast in 
southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa. 30 to 40% precip chances
continue into the overnight hours into Sunday as another H5 
impulse moves through and H8 LLJ WAA/moisture advection 
persists.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Rainy conditions should carry over into Sunday with areawide PoPs of 
60 to 80% forecast as the H8 baroclinic zone swings northeastward. 

By Monday morning, should see an intensifying shortwave trof eject 
from the Montana/Alberta area east northeast toward the 
Dakotas/Manitoba. The feature will spawn another sfc low that tracks 
north of the area, while the sfc front swings through most of the 
Northern Plains. Ahead of the frontal feature, expect gusty 30-35 
mph southwesterly winds across the area. A plume of 500-1,000 J/kg 
of instability will also overspread the area, and combined with sfc 
convergence along the front, could see more convection develop. 
Strong to severe convection could develop, but it's worth noting 
that the bulk of 0-6 km shear is located near to just behind the 
frontal boundary and not collocated in the best plume of 
instability. Better H7-H5 midlevel forcing appears once again 
focused in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota area. Some guidance
does hint at a subtle wave trekking through the Central Plains 
during the day which could help provide more large scale lift. 
At this time, PoPs of 60 to 80% are forecast for most of 
southeast Nebraska into western Iowa Monday evening into 
Tuesday.

PoP chances continue into Wednesday and Thursday as we remain 
in a zonal to slightly southwesterly flow and continued 
disturbances ride it. Temperatures in the long term will range 
from the 70s to low 80s Sunday, followed by a brief warm up 
Monday to the 80s and low 90s, then cooling down to the 60s to 
low 70s (yay, fall!) Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. South winds this
morning increase in speed this afternoon. OMA and LNK may see 
afternoon gusts up to 20-25 kts and OFK up to 30 kts. MVFR 
ceilings and fog have remained south of the area and are not 
expected to cause any aviation impacts locally. Afternoon cumulus
between FL070-FL080 is anticipated. A cold front will move into
northeast Nebraska this evening. Thunderstorms may form near the
front and OFK, but confidence remains low in this scenario. Any
thunderstorms should be isolated with only a low chance of 
aviation impacts (15-30%).

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Chehak