010 
FXUS63 KOAX 031842
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
142 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs reach the 80s today with a small chance (15-20%) for
  some showers and storms this afternoon.

- 50-70% chance for some showers and storms overnight, with the
  highest chances across northeast Nebraska. Storms may be
  strong to severe with gusty winds and small hail.

- Active pattern continues Thursday and Friday with chances for
  showers and storms (50-80% chance for much of the area). A 
  few storms may be strong to severe both days.

- Brief lull in storm chances Saturday before resuming Sunday
  (30-60%) and Monday (40-60%). Temperatures remain warm in the
  mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Main features of note early this afternoon were a surface 
boundary stretching from north-central SD into the NE panhandle 
and a compact mid-level low over the TX panhandle. Both features
will lead to thunderstorm development later this 
afternoon/evening to our west, with a line of storms associated 
with the boundary being the most likely to bring us any impacts.
While we'll have plenty of instability in our area ahead of 
said line, shear will remain fairly weak so expect outflow to be
racing out ahead of the line by the time they get here (most 
favored timing around 9-11 PM) with a general downward trend in 
intensity. However, still a shot for some stronger to severe 
storms as they first move into northeast NE with various CAMs 
indicating potential for pockets of 50-60 mph gusts. However, 
before we get there, afternoon temperatures have risen into the 
upper 70s to lower 80s and are within a few degrees of 
convective temperatures, so we may see some spotty shower and 
storm development over the next few hours in our area like we 
see to our west and south (15-20% chance).

By mid to late Thursday morning, the shortwave energy 
associated with the aforementioned low/trough to our southwest 
will slide into the forecast area. In addition, we will likely 
have lingering outflow from the overnight line of storms along 
with strengthening moisture transport pointing into the area. 
With all of that, additional showers and storms look likely 
through the day on Thursday (50-80% chance for most of the 
area). Once again, deep layer shear will be on the weaker side 
(20-30 kts in the 0-6 km layer) so storms will once again be a 
little disorganized and with storms expected to start early, 
instability may be limited. However, both appear to be 
sufficient for perhaps strong or severe storms once again and a 
few pieces of guidance hint at some decent low level hodograph 
curvature which could yield a sneaky tornado threat, especially 
given low LCLs. In addition, guidance shows precipitable water 
values in the neighborhood of 1.75" with warm cloud depths 
approaching 4 km. As a result, storms will also be efficient 
rain- producers and could lead to some localized flooding if an 
area receives repeated rounds.

The severe weather threat for Friday appears to be a bit higher
as some stronger mid to upper level flow finally pushes in, 
giving us some slightly stronger shear with an unstable airmass 
setting up ahead of an incoming cold front. While 
destabilization and storm initiation may be delayed owing to 
morning convection/lingering clouds, most guidance suggests 
we'll erode that cap through the afternoon and storms will fire 
by the evening. With ample instability and shear sufficient for 
storm organization, we'll see a threat of large hail and 
damaging winds, with an outside shot at a tornado should storms 
remain surface based in vicinity of the front where low level 
hodograph curvature is maximized.

Mid to upper level ridging looks to build in for Saturday and 
should favor most locations staying dry, though some shortwave 
energy approaching from the southwest and temperatures 
approaching convective temperatures (highs in the mid 80s to 
lower 90s), can't completely rule out some spotty afternoon 
showers and storms once again (10% chance). The ridge quickly 
moves off to the east on Sunday as the aforementioned shortwave 
moves through the area and brings us a 40-60% chance of showers 
and storms by Sunday afternoon.

We'll stay under southwesterly flow aloft well into next week 
with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s with various bits of 
shortwave energy sliding through and giving us almost daily 
shower and storm chances. Still lots of details to be worked out
there, but given the warm and humid air mass staying in place, 
we'll likely have several chances for strong to severe storms. 
Various severe weather machine learning algorithms give us at 
least a 5-10% chance of severe storms each day, though higher 
potential appears like it will be to our west where stronger mid
to upper level flow will be in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions favored through the afternoon with SCT to BKN
clouds around 3500 ft. Can't completely rule out some spotty
storms through the afternoon (10-15% chance), but confidence in
one impacting a TAF site is too low to include mention. For
tonight, a dissipating line of storms is expected to push
southeast through the area, likely impacting OFK around 06Z and
OMA by 11Z, though still some questions on exact timing and how
far south the storms will make it (i.e. if LNK will see
impacts). With any stronger storms, could see 40-50 kt gusts out
of the northwest (more likely at OFK) and perhaps some small 
hail, along with MVFR to brief IFR visibility with heavier rain.
Otherwise, outside of storms, winds will be out of the south to
southeast with some gusts of 18-22 kts this afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA