National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMQT Received: 2019-04-19 10:52 UTC


275 
FXUS63 KMQT 191052
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
652 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

Quiet day across Upper Michigan with much more sunshine than we saw 
Thursday though it could take most of the morning to part with 
shield of mid-high clouds over the east half. The sun will allow 
interior west to warm up to near 60F, or almost 20 degrees over 
the cool readings observed Thursday. High pressure building in 
will keep gradient north- northeast winds over eastern half of 
forecast area. Given the gradient winds will be flowing in off 
chilly Lake Superior, expect readings along immediate Lake 
Superior shore east from Marquette to the east, including at 
Munising and Grand Marais, to not break lower 40s. Dry airmass 
building in and mostly sunny skies will result in strong/deep 
mixing so kept RHs falling into the 17-22 pct range. High pressure
overhead tonight with light winds and dry airmass. Preferred 
lower end of guidance into the lower 20s over interior west and 
central and mid 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. Overall looks like 
pleasant tranquil weather with primary issue continued higher 
flows on some rivers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 408 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

During the long term, a lower amplitude, split flow pattern will be 
the rule across the CONUS/southern Canada. With a more zonally 
oriented northern stream flow that keeps cold air bottled up well 
into northern Canada and allows Pacific air to spread across the 
CONUS, temps across Upper MI each day this weekend thru next week 
will be around normal or above normal. The warmest day will be 
Saturday when high temps could reach into the 60s across much of the 
west half. Of course, there will be the usual chilly conditions 
along the Great Lakes, depending on the wind direction from day to 
day. Fortunately with regards to pcpn, the more dominant 
influence of the northern stream should mean a drier pattern that 
won't aggravate snowmelt runoff that will be continuing through 
the period. A couple of shortwaves passing across northern Ontario
early next week may generate some showers, but likely nothing of 
significance. Two more northern stream shortwaves may affect the 
area next week, one midweek and the other late week. Neither of 
these waves should produce significant rainfall. Meanwhile, in the
southern stream, a trough will drift across the CONUS during next
week. While this trough should not impact the weather here, it 
will be a feature to monitor. If the trough or any energy ejecting
from it tracks far enough north or links up with the northern 
stream, more significant rainfall could spread into Upper MI. 

Beginning Sat, expect a warm day, especially over western Upper MI 
under southerly winds. With sfc high pres ridge still over eastern 
Lake Superior/eastern Upper MI and northern Lake MI during the day 
Sat, it will be cooler along the Lakes though it may warm up quite a 
bit near Lake MI before winds shift onshore. Will be cool along Lake 
Superior from n central Upper MI into the Keweenaw as winds back 
under developing lake breeze wind component. Over the w, a continued 
dry air mass and late morning 870-850mb temps around 5C will support 
temps rising well into the 60s. Some of the traditional warm spots 
may touch 70F. Given the still very dry air aloft available to mix 
to sfc, will likely utilize local mixed dewpoint tool to realize 
lower sfc dewpoints. Interior min RH may fall to 14-20pct Sat aftn. 
As non-forested areas/grassy areas continue to open up with snow 
melting away, these areas will become more vulnerable to drying, and 
thus possible fire activity. 

Shortwave moving across northern Ontario Sat night/Sun will send 
associated cold front across the area. Front should reach into 
western Upper Mi late evening/overnight, be over central Upper MI at 
12z Sun and then exit the e during the aftn. Some showers will be 
possible in the vicinity of the front. ECMWF continues to trend 
farther n with energy ejecting from the southern stream trough over 
the western CONUS in addition to having a more favorable upper jet 
configuration in the upper level confluence zone across northern 
Ontario early next week (better right entrance upper diffluence over 
the northern Great Lakes). As a result, it has been trending toward 
a wetter scenario Sun night into Mon than either the GFS or the NAM. 
There is some support for the ECMWF solution from the operational 
Canadian and its ensemble members. For now, given continued model 
uncertainty will maintain just higher chance pops for late Sun 
into Mon time frame.   

The next northern stream wave will pass through on Tue but by that 
time a sfc ridge will be overhead and model soundings depict a very 
dry airmass in place so not expecting pcpn. Another shortwave then 
moves across northern Ontario late week and brings another weak cold 
front across the area with a chance of showers in the Thu-Fri time 
frame.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 651 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

VFR conditions will continue through the period. 

&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 332 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

Quiet stretch of weather. Winds will remain below 20 knots into much 
of next week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA