National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMQT Received: 2018-08-16 11:51 UTC


150 
FXUS63 KMQT 161151
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
751 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

Upper level pattern is mainly zonal across the Conus early this 
morning. Upper low spinning over South Dakota and Nebraska tracks 
toward northern Illinois and southern Lake Michigan by daybreak 
Friday. Weak lift ahead of the upper low could combine with 
lingering low-level moisture over Upper Michigan to result in slight 
chance of showers today. Best chance for showers today will be along 
Wisconsin border where slightly greater instability is forecast. 
Most showers today will be light and minimal in coverage similar to 
what is occuring over parts of western Upper Michigan early this 
morning. Just cannot shake this low-level moisture with higher 
dewpoints in the 60s. Any clearing will lead to patchy fog early 
this morning. Less cloud cover expected tonight so fog may be more
expansive than observed last couple mornings. Expect highs today 
in the 70s to low 80s, warmest south and east. With less cloud 
cover expected tonight, plan on lows dropping mainly in the 50s to
low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

Quiet start to the long-term period as low-level ridging/surface
high builds into the region by the weekend. However, don't expect
this to last as a low pressure system and attendant cold front
approach the Upper Great Lakes region by the end of the weekend.
Currently, the general consensus agrees on Sunday night into
Monday night being the best time frame of seeing more widespread
shower and thunderstorm chances. But, there are rather significant
discrepancies in the evolution of this system, rather apparent 
across the long-range model spectrum by Monday. Both the Canadian 
and ECMWF have a much more robust closed low traversing through 
Lower Michigan early next week, whereas the GFS has a much weaker 
low, attempting to become more of an open wave. These differences 
are big enough to lower confidence significantly in the precip 
chances by the late Monday night through Tuesday time period. 
Given two of the three models still indicating a possibility of 
precip for this time frame, have left mentionable PoPs in through
midday Tuesday. With the Canadian the only model keeping precip 
in the eastern portions of the U.P. late Tuesday into Wednesday, 
have negated mentionable PoPs for this time period. Although it is
still too early to say with much confidence, there are 
indications that the showers and thunderstorms could contain 
moderate to heavy rainfall, so stay tuned for future forecasts to 
see how this system evolves.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday and
Saturday, climbing into the mid to upper 80s for many locations by
Sunday, out ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Behind the
front, look for temps to drop below or near normal for mid-August.
Lows tomorrow night will largely remain in the 50s, with a
matching warming trend through the end of the weekend. Lows will
drop off closer to normal by Monday night/Tuesday morning.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 751 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

Dense fog that settled into IWD should persist next few hours before 
scouring out by late morning. After the fog, expect VFR to prevail 
through rest of forecast period. At CMX and SAW, expect MVFR or low 
VFR conditions to gradually improve by this evening. Depending on 
how much clearing occurs tonight, could see fog after midnight at 
both sites.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 308 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

Plan on light winds less than 15 kts through Monday as high pressure 
persists. Winds are expected to increase from the north-northwest at 
15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts late Monday into Tuesday as a 
deepening low pressure system tracks over the region.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA