National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMQT Received: 2018-10-22 23:58 UTC


319 
FXUS63 KMQT 222358
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
758 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2018

Ample sunshine, outside of a small pocket of clouds that moved over 
the Keweenaw and north half of Upper Michigan, worked in concert 
with weak warm air advection to push temperatures up into the 50s 
across much of the area. Upstream of the region, a cold front was 
observed pushing southeast across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. 

This evening into the overnight hours, the above mentioned cold 
front will continue to push southeast across the Upper Peninsula 
bringing with it a chance for rain showers and winds becoming 
northwesterly with gusts of 20-30 mph at times. The stronger winds 
gusts should be confined to the shoreline of Lake Superior and over 
the Keweenaw. As the cooler, drier air continues to filter in behind 
the cold front, overnight lows will gradually lower into the low to 
mid 30s. The coldest temperatures are expected over the interior 
west half, where rain will gradually switch over to snow by Tuesday 
morning. 850mb temperatures are not terribly impressive, only 
running around 5-7C, so it does appear the product of ice will be 
significantly limited. Therefore, not expecting much in the way of 
snow accumulations by Tuesday morning. 

Throughout Tuesday, 850mb temperatures will continue to cool a 
couple of degrees, perhaps reaching 8-9C. This will make for a 
cloudy, blustery day with lingering gusty northwest winds and 
temperatures around 20 degrees cooler compared to Monday. There is 
the potential to see a few lingering lake effect showers, but the 
combination of increasing subsidence and limited ice production may 
only allow for a few flurries or sprinkles.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2018

No significantly impactful weather in the long term. 

Overall looking pretty quiet. Could see some isolated light lake 
effect rain and snow showers lingering over the north-central into 
early Wed. Otherwise, troughing moving in later this week will bring 
chances for light rain and at times snow showers late Thu into early 
next week. Confidence in any details is quite low and amounts do not 
look substantial at this point. Best chances for precip are over the 
west.

Temperatures will be coolest Tue night into Wed night with highs in 
the mid 30s to mid 40s and lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. 
Otherwise, expect highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 754 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2018

A cold front which moved across the TAF sites this afternoon
shifted winds to the northwest. As colder air moves in behind the
front this evening, MVFR cigs are expected to develop with maybe
some scattered showers. Confidence is low in regards to the shower
coverage, so only have mention of VCSH for now. Initially showers
will start off as light rain, but could switch over to very light
snow at KSAW Tuesday morning. MVFR cigs will likely persist
through much of the day on Tuesday with an onshore northwest flow.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 204 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2018

A cold front will push southeast across the lake this afternoon into 
the overnight hours, switching winds from south-southwest to 
northwest. Colder air working in behind from will increase northwest 
winds to 25 to 30 knots tonight through Tuesday. Not out of the 
question that we could see a few gale force gusts to 35 knots late 
tonight to through early Tuesday, especially across the east half of 
the lake. Tuesday evening into Wednesday, winds fall below 15 knots 
as high pressure moves overhead. Expect winds to remain less than 20 
knots through the end of the week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ritzman
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Ritzman