091 
FXUS63 KMPX 010852
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder than normal temperatures to continue through and beyond
  the first week of December, with the first widespread sub-
  zero morning of the season coming Thursday.

- A few flurries/snow showers are possible in SE MN into W WI
  later today, followed by clipper systems Tue Night into Wed
  and on Fri bringing additional light snow showers for the 
  entire coverage area.

- A slower and more organized frontal system may be possible 
  late week into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows expansive cold 
Canadian-origin high pressure between the Rockies and 
Appalachians, while a conglomerate of weak low pressure centers 
sits over the Rockies to the West Coast. Aloft, a weak H5 bubble
ridge axis moving into the Great Lakes has a sharp longwave 
trough axis on its heels, extending from northern Manitoba 
province down to the Four Corners region, while an amplified 
longwave ridge sits just offshore of western NOAM. 

The clearing skies underneath the large high along with the
fresh snowpack has allowed temperatures this morning to 
plummet to the single digits above (and even a few below) zero 
over mainly the MN portion of the WFO MPX coverage area while 
the WI portion, where lingering clouds are more prevalent, hold 
in the teens. Clouds will be on the increase today as the 
aforementioned deep trough slides eastward across the region. A 
swath of moisture being dragged northeast ahead of the trough 
looks to have its greatest concentration within the DGZ per 
model soundings across the region. While upper level support is 
not all that impressive and surface support is nearly nil, there
may be sufficient dynamics at play to squeeze out some flurries
and/or snow showers for mainly the southern portion of our 
coverage area this afternoon. Where snow does occur, a trace 
accumulation is reasonable with a half inch of snow at the high 
end of the spectrum. Thus, few to no impacts are expected given 
what has already occurred recently. With temperatures starting 
out quite cold followed by the increase in cloud cover and 
widespread snow cover, temperatures will not recover much today 
so will only look for highs in the upper teens to around 20.

Clouds will generally stick around tonight through Tuesday,
possibly a few breaks in the overcast Tuesday morning, but 
again the cold temperatures will remain in place with lows again
into the single digits to lower teens early Tuesday morning 
followed by slightly warmer highs into the 20s area-wide. A weak
clipper system developing over northwest Canada will drive 
southeast during the day Tuesday, moving across ND through 
northern MN and into the MI UP Tuesday night through Wednesday.
A few more snow showers are again possible late Tuesday into 
early Wednesday with this system, but it will again produce 
little in the way of more snowfall for the area, likely in the 
Trace to 0.5" range.

Behind this midweek system, another reinforcing shot of arctic
air is expected across the north-central CONUS as broad 
northwest flow aloft develops atop a 1035mb high pressure 
airmass driving southeast from western Canada. This will push 
highs on Wednesday into the lower teens to lower 20s, then the 
full force of this airmass will be felt Thursday with morning 
lows into the teens below zero and highs again in the lower 
teens to lower 20s. "Warmer" air returns going into the end of 
the week as upper flow becomes more zonal atop a relative warm 
sector south of a west-to-east frontal boundary developing near 
the international border. Friday also looks to feature a weak 
surface trough drifting through the area which could produce 
some flurries or snow showers over the eastern half of the 
coverage area; again, little to no impacts are expected.

There is a possible more organized system to keep an eye on for 
Saturday, along the aforementioned frontal boundary. Both the 
GFS and EC models indicate a shortwave trough axis aloft moving 
eastward from the PacNW across the Northern Rockies Friday. This
trough axis looks to become sharper over the Northern Plains 
into the Upper Midwest Saturday, with a cyclogenesis occurring 
along the front and this developing low moving eastward over the
Dakotas and through MN. While there were a few indications of 
this scenario the past couple nights, there looks to be better 
agreement in this thinking in this deterministic and ensemble
model cycle. Admittedly, this system is still 5-6 days out so 
there's plenty that could vary between then and now, nor can any
specifics be determined at this point, but have opted to nudge 
up NBM PoPs from the 10s-20s into the 30s, into the "Chance" 
range. Have also collab'd with WPC to increase QPF a few 
hundredths of an inch to indicate at least a small amount of 
snow with this system. 

Another arctic high pressure airmass looks to then follow this 
potential weekend system, again plunging lows to the single
digits  above and below zero with highs in the 10-20 degree 
range for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The MVFR stratus over WI has been slow to clear, but current
thinking is the trailing western edge should pass EAU by 10Z.
Have gotten more aggressive with conditions deteriorating
overnight at AXN and STC. Strong radiational cooling should
allow for fog and very low clouds to develop. Currently have
LIFR at both sites until at least sunrise with visibilities and
cigs falling to 3/4sm and 400 feet, respectively. MVFR/IFR cigs
should characterize the rest of Monday. Kept PROB30s at MKT, 
MSP, RNH, and EAU for -SHSN where MVFR/IFR is periodically 
possible. Light/variable winds tonight will become south-
southwesterly Monday morning and increase to 5-10 knots by early
afternoon.

KMSP...Expecting MVFR conditions to develop by 13Z Monday as
cigs fall to near 1500 feet. Kept PROB30 for -SHSN and 5sm
visibility from 16-21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR clouds with IFR/-SN possible late. Wind SW 5-10kts. 
WED...MVFR with -SN possible early. Wind NW 10-15kts. 
THU...VFR and cold. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...CTG