565 
FXUS62 KMLB 041044
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
644 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists today
  at east central Florida Atlantic beaches.

- The greatest storm chances remain focused south of Orlando
  through at least Saturday. Higher coverage returns northward
  late this weekend and into early next week.

- Temperatures warm slightly each day with peak heat indices
  approaching 100 to 105 degrees this weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Water vapor imagery and analysis reveal a persistent pattern over 
the U.S. Multiple disturbances continue to carve out an unseasonably 
deep trough over the eastern half of the nation. With short 
wavelengths, this -EPO setup remains essentially steady-state while 
high-latitude positive H5 height anomalies are maintained over 
western Canada.

Embedded at the base of the trough, a pair of disturbances is 
currently located over the southern Appalachians. Favorable jet 
dynamics continue to support a weak surface boundary over South 
Florida. A stronger shortwave is expected to dive from the Northern 
Plains to the Great Lakes, forcing another early-season cold front 
into the Deep South this weekend. While the front is not forecast to 
clear the state, it will keep the dividing line between deep 
tropical moisture and drier continental air very close to north and 
central Florida through the weekend.

Global ensembles tend to fill the East Coast trough next week, but a 
weakness is still favored over Florida as ridging holds to the west. 
Ensemble means place Florida back in the right entrance region of 
an upper jet segment, and onshore flow should force progressively
higher moisture back over the area. 

The overall regime looks rather unsettled at times and favors above-
normal rainfall. Long-range guidance is slow to break this pattern 
through the middle of September (and perhaps beyond). In fact, the 
MJO is forecast to become more conducive for broad ascent over 
Florida, the Gulf, and the Caribbean later in the month.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Friday...

There should be very little change to the weather as we end the 
short work week. A stationary boundary is set to remain over South
Florida, with much drier air aloft residing near and north of 
Orlando. Onshore surface winds should promote a dominant Atlantic 
sea breeze. Scattered/numerous showers and storms are forecast to 
develop during peak heating, with the highest coverage (60-80%) of
rain/storms residing south of Kissimmee-Melbourne, where the 
deeper moisture lies. Hi-res guidance shows the potential for 
localized (1 in 10 chance) 2-3"+ rainfall tallies, which may 
prompt minor flooding issues if it falls too quickly. Occasional 
lightning and brief gusty winds to 40-45 mph could also accompany 
the stronger storms. High temps should hold near to a couple of 
degrees below normal.

Weekend...

With small disturbances moving over a mid-level moisture 
discontinuity and nearly-stalled front, persistence remains key to 
our forecast. We will continue with a north-to-south gradient (40-
70%) for shower and storm coverage, placing our highest chances for 
storms near Lake O and the Treasure Coast. Aside from some onshore 
wind relief at the coast, it does look to turn a bit hotter. Highs 
should touch the low 90s with heat indices 100-105 deg F.

Early Next Week...

The weakness in the jet stream over Florida will allow more 
disturbances to pass by, keeping a surface trough in the vicinity.
A few members develop an area of low pressure by around Tuesday 
before sending it into the Atlantic. With 60-90% of EPS members 
painting total moisture values at or above the 90th percentile for
early September, this nearly assures that bouts of unsettled 
weather are on tap. Rain/storm chances are 65-75% and likely to 
increase as we get closer in time.

&&

.MARINE...

A stationary front remains draped across the South Florida Atlantic 
waters. It will stay close to the local area for the next several 
days, sparking scattered showers and storms. To the north of the 
front and across much of the Central Florida nearshore waters, 
northeast to east winds of 8-13 KT are forecast each day, enhanced 
by the afternoon sea breeze. Seas 2-4 FT through Friday, highest in 
the Gulf Stream, subsiding to 2-3 FT this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

A stalled frontal boundary over south Florida will lead to higher
shower and storm chances across southern portions of the forecast
area than northern locations. However, current CAM guidance keeps
a majority of convection inland from the Treasure Coast, with
scattered coverage elsewhere. Thus, have not included any TEMPO
groups at this time, with VCTS beginning along the coast in the
early afternoon, then spreading inland through the day. DAB looks
to remain the driest, though a few showers cannot be ruled out. 
Showers and storms are expected to diminish by around sunset; 
however, models suggest showers continuing along the Space Coast 
into the evening. This will need to be monitored for future 
updates. 

NNE winds early this morning will become NE today at around 10 kts
or less. Light winds then develop around sunset and prevail
through the overnight hours. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  88  75 /  40  20  40  20 
MCO  90  75  91  75 /  60  20  50  10 
MLB  87  76  88  76 /  60  30  60  30 
VRB  88  74  89  74 /  80  40  70  40 
LEE  90  74  91  75 /  40  10  30  10 
SFB  89  75  91  75 /  50  10  50  10 
ORL  90  76  91  75 /  50  20  50  10 
FPR  89  73  89  73 /  80  40  70  40 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Leahy