124 
FXUS62 KMLB 201747
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
147 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

- HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
  today; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged.

- Small craft should exercise caution near inlets as a long 
  period swell gradually subsides.

- Weak cool front will ooze southward across central FL today then
  stall/wash out across south-central Florida tonight/Tue. 
  Reinforcing cool front forecast to push through mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Today-Tue...A weak cool front sags southward across central FL 
today then stalls and washes out over south-central Florida by 
Tuesday. Sounding profiles show a dry airmass in place above 800mb
while low level moisture present in vicinity of the decaying 
surface front will produce considerable stratus in the morning 
across northern sections. These low clouds may linger into the 
afternoon along the Volusia coast. Low rain chances (10-20%) are 
kept across the south near Lake Okeechobee each afternoon where 
low level moisture is localized. Otherwise, PoPs remain below 
mentionable levels. With little cooling behind this boundary, high
temperatures will remain at or above normal today, generally in 
the mid to upper 80s, except near 80/lower 80s Volusia due to the 
onshore flow. 

Wed-Sun...A reinforcing cool front passes more cleanly through
central Florida on Wednesday as high pressure builds across the 
southeast U.S. High pressure aloft gradually flattens, resulting 
in zonal mid level flow. Surface winds veer northeast through the 
day Wednesday with onshore flow increasing Thursday into late week
as a local pressure gradient tightens. Developing breezy/ windy 
conditions along the coast could lead to a return of coastal 
hazards including high surf and beach erosion. Mostly dry through 
the extended period with isolated onshore-moving showers returning
this weekend. Temperatures trend more seasonable Thursday and 
into the weekend with low to mid 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

A weak cool front will sag into the local Atlc waters early this
morning then stall/wash out across the southern waters
tonight/Tue. A reinforcing dry cool front is forecast to more
cleanly through the local waters Wed.

Winds turn N/NE during the day today behind the front with speeds
10-15 knots. The swell periods will gradually shorten but remain
11-12 sec with swell heights of 4 ft so a Caution near Inlets
headline will continue today in the coastal waters forecast. Light
onshore flow Tue with no headlines forecast. Winds will become 
north behind the reinforcing front Wed then NE Thu and Fri with an
increase in speeds to 15-20 knots. Seas will build and become 
more choppy mid week behind this next front especially in the Gulf
Stream. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Stubborn MVFR stratus in the vicinity of a stalled front will hold 
on for a few more hours (through 20-21Z) across northern and 
interior terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR into tonight before patchy 
fog becomes a concern toward sunrise. Right now, confidence is 
low in its timing and placement, so have opted to put TEMPO VISBY
reductions at a few terminals where the signal is highest. Winds 
out of the northeast through sunset before slackening, becoming 
somewhat variable overnight. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  84  65  83 /   0   0   0   0 
MCO  67  87  68  87 /   0   0   0   0 
MLB  70  84  69  84 /   0   0  10   0 
VRB  70  85  68  85 /   0  10  10   0 
LEE  65  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0 
SFB  66  87  66  86 /   0   0   0   0 
ORL  67  87  67  86 /   0   0   0   0 
FPR  70  85  68  85 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Ulrich