714 
FXUS62 KMLB 050557
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1257 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 134 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Gradual warming into this weekend before becoming more
  seasonable/cooler early to mid next week. 

- Next cold front will move through the area late Sunday into 
  Monday.
  
- Dry conditions through late week, with increasing shower chances 
  and isolated lightning storms returning this weekend along and 
  ahead of that next cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Rest of today-Friday... Upper high pressure across the Caribbean 
will continue to expand across central Florida through Friday. An 
upper level low across the Quebec region today will shift eastward 
into the New Brunswick area by Friday and out into the Atlantic. At 
the surface, high pressure will remain over Florida while it slowly 
shifts eastward. A low pressure system will develop across the 
western Gulf today before shifting eastward across the northern Gulf 
late today into Friday. This will drag a cold front into north 
Florida on Friday. Locally, NE to ENE winds at 5-10 mph today will 
become light and variable over night before becoming S-SW at 5-10 
mph on Friday. Despite increasing moisture along and ahead of the 
approaching front, no mentionable rain chances across east central 
Florida through Friday. 

Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend, with seasonable to 
slightly above normal temperatures today becoming above normal by 
Friday. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s along and 
north of the I-4 corridor, and upper 70s to low 80s everywhere else 
today, with low to mid 80s on Friday. Overnight lows will also 
gradually warm, with lows ranging from low to mid 50s to low 60s 
across the interior, and low to mid 60s across the coast tonight, 
and low to mid 60s on Friday. Much like this morning, patchy fog 
will be possible late tonight into early Friday morning across east 
central Florida. Remember, if you encounter fog while driving, slow 
down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

Saturday-Monday... Upper high pressure centered over the Caribbean 
on Saturday will slide southward into early next week as an upper 
level trough begins to dig across the Midwest and Deep South. A 
surface cold front across North Florida on Saturday will finally get 
pushed across east central Florida and into South Florida Sunday 
into Monday as that trough pushes eastwards towards the eastern US 
coastline.  Surface high pressure will then build down across the 
Florida peninsula from the Deep South behind the front on Monday, 
with flow aloft becoming more zonal. Locally, southwest winds around 
10 mph or less on Saturday will veer west to northwest Sunday 
evening ahead of the cold front before shifting north to northeast 
Monday afternoon behind the front. The pressure gradient will 
tighten slightly, especially over the Atlantic waters, on Monday, 
with winds becoming breezy at times with speeds at 10-15 mph with 
gusts up to 20-25 mph possible. Moisture will increase through the 
weekend ahead of the front (forecast PW values around 1.75-2.1") 
before drier air moves in behind the front on Monday with PW values 
forecast to drop to 0.7-1.0" in the afternoon.  

Rain chances return to the forecast on Saturday as moisture is 
increasing over the area, with a low to medium (20-40 percent) 
chance of rain Saturday afternoon, with the highest chances 
occurring along and north of the I-4 corridor. Rain chances continue 
Sunday, with a medium to high (30-70 percent) chance of rain through 
the day as the cold front approaches the local area. The highest 
potential for rain will be from Brevard to Osceola counties 
northward. The threat for lightning storms will return on Sunday, 
with a low threat (20 percent) for lightning storms across all of 
east central Florida in the afternoon through early evening. 
Lingering isolated to scattered showers area wide on Monday, with 
the highest potential (30-40 percent) occurring from southern 
Brevard to southern Osceola counties southward. Drier air will begin 
filter down across the area behind the front Monday afternoon, with 
mostly dry conditions forecast from Cape Canaveral to Kissimmee 
northward, expanding to all land areas in the evening and overnight 
hours. 

Temperatures will remain above normal on Saturday and Sunday with 
highs generally ranging from upper 70s to low 80s across the north, 
and low to mid 80s across the south. Seasonable to slightly below 
normal temperatures will spread across the local area on Monday 
behind the front. Afternoon highs will range from upper 60s to low 
70s across the north, and low to mid 70s across the south. Overnight 
lows will generally be in the 60s Saturday night before dropping to 
upper 50s to near 60 degrees along and north of the I-4 corridor and 
low to mid 60s everywhere else on Sunday night as the front is 
pushing through. Overnight temperatures continue to drop Monday 
night with temperatures ranging from upper 40s to low 50s across the 
interior, and low to mid 50s along the coast, except for low 60s 
along the immediate Martin county coast.  

Tuesday-Thursday... High pressure will continue to build over the 
Florida peninsula from the eastern US through the period. Locally, 
drier air (forecast PW values around 0.8-1.2") will settle over the 
area, resulting in mostly dry conditions (rain chances less than 10 
percent each day) over land areas through mid-week. However, 
isolated showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic 
waters each day. North to northeast winds at 5-10 mph on Tuesday 
will veer north to northwest on Wednesday, and west to northwest on 
Thursday. Cooler conditions into mid-week with seasonable to 
slightly below normal temperatures are forecast. Afternoon highs 
will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the north, and low to mid 
70s across the south Tuesday and Wednesday, before warming slightly 
on Thursday to low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be range from mid 
to upper 40s to low 50s across the interior, and low to upper 50s 
along the coast. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Today-Monday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the 
weekend, with conditions deteriorating Monday due to a cold front 
pushing through the local waters Sunday night into Monday. High 
pressure will continue to build across the local waters through late 
week before shifting southward during the weekend. N/NE winds at 
around 10 KT today will begin to increase on Friday as the pressure 
gradient tightens. Winds will veer S/SW and increase to 10-15 KT on 
Friday through Sunday before becoming W/NW on Monday and increasing 
to 10-15 KT nearshore and 15-20 KT offshore. Seas 2-4 ft today, 
increasing to 5ft in the offshore waters on Friday before decreasing 
back to 2-4 ft on Saturday. Seas build on Sunday to 5ft in the 
offshore waters, and 4-5ft in the nearshore and up to 8ft in the 
offshore waters on Monday. Small Craft Advisories and cautionary 
headlines will likely be needed. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1250 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions prevailing through the evening hours, with dry
conditions and southwesterly winds 12 kts or less becoming light
overnight. Late Friday night and into Saturday morning, models 
suggest FG and low stratus developing, mainly for terminals north 
of MLB. Will need to monitor this trend through the day today. For
now, have included a mention of MVFR conditions for MCO after 8Z 
Saturday (the only local 30 hour TAF site), though at least TEMPOs
for IFR conditions appear likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  63  77  61 /   0  10  40  50 
MCO  83  65  82  65 /   0   0  40  40 
MLB  82  63  82  65 /   0   0  20  30 
VRB  83  62  83  64 /   0   0  10  20 
LEE  81  65  78  61 /   0  20  50  60 
SFB  83  65  80  63 /   0  10  40  40 
ORL  82  65  80  64 /   0   0  40  40 
FPR  83  62  84  63 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Leahy