277 
FXUS66 KMFR 232049
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
149 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cold air is settling into the region behind the departing 
  front.

* Mostly clear skies will result in cold overnight lows in area
  valleys. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the Umpqua and
  Coquille valleys tonight into Saturday morning. 
 
* The next frontal system arrives late Sunday into Monday with
  light rain along and west of the Cascades, and gusty winds and
  little to no rain to the east of the Cascades.

* There is high forecast uncertainty beyond Tuesday, with
  additional systems possible. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper level ridging is building in over the area,
with a cold, dry air mass settling in at the surface behind the
departing system. Quiet, low impact weather is expected through 
the weekend. With clear skies expected tonight, low temperatures 
through the morning will be the coolest of the forecast period 
and widespread frost/freeze conditions are expected in the West 
Side Valleys. A frost advisory has been issued only for the Umpqua
and Coquille valleys as all other inland areas have experienced a
freeze this season. 

With broad east flow and high pressure building overhead,
temperatures will warm quickly Saturday. It will be cool again
Saturday night, but not as cold as the east winds continue and 
downsloping winds help keep temperatures warmer than otherwise.
The temperatures should be warm enough to prevent any additional 
widespread frost/freeze concerns where growing season hasn't quite
ended yet. 

A closed upper-level low will dig south from the Gulf of Alaska,
arriving offshore of Oregon by Sunday afternoon. The trough will
then push onshore with a surface front late Sunday into Monday 
morning. Moisture is limited, so precipitation will mostly stay
along and west of the Cascades, but a few showers may make it over
the East Side. Snow levels will be high enough to keep all the
passes clear from any winter weather, but the higher peaks may
add some white color to their peaks. Breezy to gusty winds are
also possible Monday, but should stay well below any headline 
criteria. All-in-all, a weak system, but one that will bring
beneficial moisture to some areas. 

Tuesday through the rest of the week, there is a high degree of 
uncertainty across the forecast model suites. Some solutions
depict brief periods of ridging with intermittent waves moving
through, while others keep some form of cyclonic flow overhead
through most of the week. This uncertainty mostly stems from the
models having a tough time resolving the behavior and effects of
upstream closed/cut-off lows, and this is no exception. 


&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail across the 
area through the next 24 hours, with gusty north winds expected 
over the coastal waters and along the coast through tonight. 

&&

.MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Friday, October 23, 2026...Gusty north
winds and very steep seas today will gradually diminish and retreat 
to the south tonight into Saturday as the thermal trough weakens. 
Improved conditions are expected for all areas over the weekend, 
though steep seas may linger in southern waters through Saturday 
evening. A front will pass through the waters late Sunday into 
Monday with south winds and steep seas possible. Improved conditions 
are expected by midweek, with models uncertain on the arrival of 
another system Wednesday or Thursday. 

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM PDT Saturday for ORZ021-023. 

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Saturday 
     for PZZ350-356-370-376. 

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. 

&&

$$