484 
FXUS64 KMEG 022054
AFDMEM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 PM CST TUE NOV 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. THE OUTFLOW 
BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS MADE IT ALL 
THE WAY TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT...IT HAS TAKEN MOST OF THE 
INSTABILITY WITH IT AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING DATA AND SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. MOST OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION IS IN THE FORM OF 
STRATIFORM RAIN AND NOT HEAVY. THIS RAIN IS FOLLOWING A SLOW MOVING 
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND THROUGH 
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT 
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING A DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO THE REGION TOWARDS 
MORNING. BY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE OVER NORTHEAST MS. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF ALONG THE 
FRONT AND SOME OF THIS RAIN IN THE MORNING MAY BE WRAPPED BACK 
TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON 
THE DRY SLOT SHOULD HAVE WORKED INTO MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER 
NORTHEAST MS. LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY 
SO TEMPS SHOULDNT RISE MUCH.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE EVENING 
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE THE END 
OF THE RAIN FOR A WHILE. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ON THURSDAY AS 
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER CHILLY DUE 
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MANY LOCATIONS MAY STAY IN 
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. 

AFTER MIDWEEK...THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. 
THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY STRONG SYSTEMS FROM AFFECTING THE REGION. TEMPS 
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE 
TO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN US.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

VALLE