National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMAF Received: 2018-12-18 19:52 UTC


087 
FXUS64 KMAF 181952
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
152 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...As of 1:45 PM CST Tuesday...do my eyes deceive me?
This stuff falling out of the sky...oh it's rain. KMAF radar shows
a line of showers stretching from near Lamesa south to Sanderson
moving east. The GOES-16 RGB WV Imagery shows the parent mid/upper
low over Southeast New Mexico.

Hope you enjoyed the rain since that. will. be. it. Dry weather
rules for the next seven days. Northwest flow aloft on Wednesday 
in the wake of todays system will bring dry weather with temps 
five or so degrees above normal (normal for MAF is 57). The flow 
aloft will transition to nearly zonal with weak shortwaves passing
well to the north of the CWA. As each shortwave passes a dry cold
front will drop south. Temps on Thursday will drop to near 
normal. Temps on Friday/Saturday will warm to 10-15 degrees above 
normal before another dry cold front drops temps to a little below
normal on Sunday. Temps will once again warm to 5-10 degrees 
above normal Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. For those hoping for
a white Christmas... as the song from Thurl Ravenscroft (1966) 
said..."You're a Mean One Mr Grinch"...

Taking a peek further into the extended...it looks like a major 
pattern change is in store for the US after Christmas. The 
ECMWF/GFS/Canadian plus the 12Z GFS ensembles are indc that a 
large trough will be carved out in the Western US. We'll see if 
future model runs continue to indc this pattern change...and if it
does occur what the implications are for the CWA. Stay tuned.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  63  37  57 /  20   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       35  66  33  56 /  10   0   0   0 
Dryden                         42  69  40  65 /  10   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  41  66  37  60 /  10   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 36  57  33  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          34  62  31  55 /  10   0   0   0 
Marfa                          32  60  26  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           38  64  38  58 /  20   0   0   0 
Odessa                         40  64  37  58 /  20   0   0   0 
Wink                           37  65  34  60 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/33