125 
FXUS64 KLZK 010830
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
230 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

+  Winter weather expected starting this morning and lasting 
   into tonight across the majority of the forecast area.

+  Freezing rain will predominate across central, north central, 
   southern and western Arkansas. Snow and some sleet are 
   possible over northwest Arkansas. 

+  A large part of the forecast area is under a winter weather 
   advisory from 6 AM today until 6 AM Tuesday.

+  Impacts will largely be minor but higher amounts of freezing
   rain remain possible over central sections with higher impacts
   possible. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Overall the forecast appears to be in good shape with only some 
minor tweaks needed. Biggest change this morning was to include 
Ouachita and  Calhoun counties in the winter weather advisory. 
Satellite imagery this morning shows a definite increase in gulf 
moisture but the majority of it is of the mid to high level variety. 
Surface observations have already dropped in the upper 20s to mid 
30s. Guidance continues to temperatures bottoming out in the lower 
20s to lower 30s around sunrise.

Synoptic pattern has not deviated much over the past few models runs 
with a sharp upper trough digging through the central Rockies at 
this time. As this feature continues to dig, upper flow will turn to 
the southwest allowing for deeper moisture to arrive as weak low 
pressure develops and traverses the gulf coast. Warm air advection 
off the deck and the aforementioned moisture will move over an air 
mass that will struggle to get out of the 30s as surface high 
pressure to our north keeps surface flow out of the N to NE.

Timing of the precip still looks reasonable, starting over the 
southwest early this morning and spreading to the E/NE with time. 
Upper trough will pass over the state late today as the surface low 
to our south pulls out, taking whatever moisture remains with it. 
Precipitation looks to be pretty much done by midnight in our CWA.

Highest QPF remains over the SE and tapers off to the NW where 
impacts will be less. Biggest question mark with precipitation type 
will be the amount of, or lack of low level moisture. Models 
indicate the best moisture doesn't stick around very long. In 
addition, once precipitation does initiate, wet bulbing could also 
bring a little more sleet than what is currently being indicated. 

On the positive side, QPF is overly low and while the overall 
impacts will be minor, there remains areas where icing could be more 
of a problem. Surface temperatures do warm above freezing during the 
afternoon and road temperatures will likely stay just above freezing 
with main travel impacts on elevated roadways. 

Sub freezing temperatures are expected Monday night and any water on 
area roadways could refreeze. Surface ridge overspreads the region 
on Tuesday with temperatures climbing back into the 40s. Southerly 
winds return for Wednesday with highs climbing back into the upper 
40s to mid 50s. 

Temperatures get knocked back down on Thursday and Friday as another 
upper trough approaches from the west. Overall it does not appear to 
be as cold Thursday night and Friday when compared to today but 
there will be at least another chance of winter weather across the 
North and Northeast. Temperatures will continue to run well below 
normal, even for early December. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

All terminals will begin with VFR flight category Sunday evening. 
Wintry precipitation in the form of light freezing rain, light 
sleet, and light snow will begin to move from west to east across 
Arkansas on Monday morning and continue through the afternoon
hours before dissipating late in the period. The only terminal 
anticipated to only experience light rain showers in KLLQ in the 
far southeast. CIGS are expected to lower to as low as IFR flight 
category from midday on Monday through the remainder of the 
forecast period across the southeastern sites. The southeastern 
sites of KPBF and KLLQ will additionally experience VSBY which 
will lower to MVFR flight category and remain towards the end of 
the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     35  25  42  25 /  40  40   0   0 
Camden AR         36  25  44  25 /  60  60   0   0 
Harrison AR       33  22  43  26 /  30  20   0   0 
Hot Springs AR    35  23  45  25 /  50  40   0   0 
Little Rock   AR  34  27  43  26 /  60  50   0   0 
Monticello AR     38  28  43  27 /  80  70   0   0 
Mount Ida AR      37  23  48  26 /  50  30   0   0 
Mountain Home AR  33  22  41  24 /  30  30   0   0 
Newport AR        36  25  40  24 /  40  50   0   0 
Pine Bluff AR     35  25  41  24 /  70  70   0   0 
Russellville AR   37  25  46  26 /  40  30   0   0 
Searcy AR         34  23  42  23 /  50  50   0   0 
Stuttgart AR      35  25  40  26 /  60  60   0   0 

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM CST 
Tuesday for ARZ005>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>046-
052>056-062-063-066-067-123-130-137-138-140-141-223-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...77