426 
FXUS65 KLKN 112031
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1231 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

* Unseasonably warm temperatures continue to threaten records
  across the area

* Fair weather and light winds are forecast through the weekend
 
* Next chance for precipitation will be next week
  

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure continues to dominate the
short term forecast keeping winds light and temperatures
unseasonably warm for December in NV. Several daily high
temperature records have already fallen this week at many climate
sites in the region and more may be broken through the rest of the
week. Afternoon highs under this persistent ridge will continue 
to top out in the upper 50s and 60s for the area. 

The ridge will finally push through the state and eastward
Saturday night into Sunday. Sunday evening a developing shortwave
will pass through southern NV but the area is moisture starved and
no impacts are expected on central or northern NV other than a
shift to northerly flow aloft over the state on Monday.

The next potential for impactful weather occurs next week. Zonal
flow over the western CONUS increases Tuesday as the southern 
edge of a large embedded jet creeps into NV from the north. Riding
the broad zonal axis of the parent ULT will be a series of 
developing shortwaves. The first will begin to impact the region 
Monday night with a sharp moisture increase from northwest to 
southeast. Cloud cover and moisture availability is in place on 
Tuesday especially in the northern NV where precipitation chances 
will increase through the day. Precipitation on Tuesday and the 
Wednesday AM will be mainly rain save for highest elevations of 
northern NV. The second wave Wednesday night and Thursday will 
provide colder area and more of a chance for snow around 6500 feet.
Precipitation amounts currently are very preliminary and with the
amount of disagreement in long term ensemble clusters not 
trustworthy. Clusters are divided on how far south the storm track
will dip next week with about half bringing the track further 
south and the others keeping the track further north over ID and 
MT. The grand ensemble bisects the Silver State with a ridge south
and the axis of the parent ULT over northern NV.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for
unusually warm seasonal temperatures to persist into the weekend.
Low confidence remains in timing and amounts for next week's
potential system impacts for the area. No major changes needed
with grids at this time.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions persist through Friday afternoon under high
pressure with no precipitation forecast at any terminals through
the period. Afternoon winds will be light at all terminals as well
with wind speeds generally at or before 11 KTs.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99