750 
FXUS64 KLIX 312019
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
319 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Wind speeds will slack off some over the Gulf but expect them to
  remain out of the east through Monday and pick back up to 15 to
  20 knot mainly over open gulf waters. This will continue to 
  create minor coastal flooding along sections of the Mississippi 
  and Louisiana gulf coasts during high tide times each day 
  through the weekend. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for 
  locations expected to get minor coastal flooding.

- Rain has already returned to a few locations today but the
  remainder of the afternoon and thius evening there could be a
  little more storms the previously thoguht and over the
  western/northwestern portions of the outlook area. This would
  likely occur during prime Trick-or-Treating time and there could
  even be a few very isolated pockets of rainfall amounts greater
  than 3".
 
- Stronger system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain
  will begin during the day Tuesday impacting election day while 
  strong to severe storms look possible Tuesday night through 
  early Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Remnants of once Hurricane Vance had spread out 
and moved across the region earlier but is now starting to speed 
away to the north and east. This appears to have finally 
eroded/nudged the ridge away enough to get some rain over the CWA. 
The large area of rain to our west/southwest overnight and early 
this morning looked like it hit a brick wall as it moved into south-
central LA. Our ridge was stubborn and just wouldn't allow that rain 
to move in but it looks like it has weakened enough finally. This 
still doesn't make the forecast any easier for the remainder of the 
afternoon and tonight. 

Moisture was quickly recovering with this mornings sounding showing 
PW's already around 1.6" and GOES TPW showing anywhere from 1.7 to 
1.9 trying to push into the area. This is already around the top 10% 
so moisture is not in question. The question is forcing, lift, and 
instability. One big issue is the lack of any real focus or forcing 
mechanism in the LL. Instability may be a little higher than 
previously expected thanks to enough breaks in the clouds to allow a 
good chunk of the area to get into the lower 80s and some possibly 
in the mid 80s before we are done. A few other things that appear to 
be favorable for showers and even thunderstorms to develop later 
this afternoon and evening, one is the nose of the mid level jet 
moving into central TX right now. It should approach the western 
portions of the area around 23/00z. This doesn't look like it is 
being handled well by any of the models as they all look to be 
faster with it and farther north but tracking back for a few hours 
with GOES WV shows it is moving more easterly and not lifting as 
much and it could provide a little more lift than what models were 
thinking earlier. Second feature which has been mentioned before is 
the upper jet dropping SSE into the Gulf this afternoon and this 
evening. This is going to provide very favorable upper level 
diffluent pattern over the area between 22Z and 06Z which will 
likely lead to very efficient storms should any develop. This all 
suggests that there is still a window for more numerous showers and 
embedded thunderstorms some of which could actually develop heavy 
rain. 

That said confidence is not extremely high. Again we lack any 
significant focus or forcing feature and if that mid lvl jet does 
start to nudge more north or get blocked by weak ridging behind last 
night and this mornings disturbance then rain will struggle however, 
last few hours are starting to make me think we may have a little 
more activity than previously thought. Just mentioned the 
disturbance (partial remnants of Vance) are departing and models had 
been showing not necessarily s/w ridging but definitely some 
increase in hghts and suppression behind it but latest analysis 
shows those mid lvl hghts are not rising and and even slightly 
falling. This is likely what has finally led to some rain develop 
over the area but with that I feel a little better about that lift 
getting into the region later. With that I am anticipating a little 
more activity over the northwestern/western portions of the CWA 
especially around the BTR metro and the problem is that this could 
occur right at prime Trick-or-Treating time. Right now it looks like 
between 22z and 04z would be the time where we would see the 
greatest amount of activity. Again not expecting widespread heavy 
rain but there definitely could be pockets of some heavier rain 
possibly greater than 3" and it now looks like that could be over 
portions of SELA along and north of I-10 and into portions of swMS. 
That is in stark contrast to where the earlier thoughts of the 
heavier rain potential being across coastal MS but if we get this 
tonight over the western 2/3rds of the CWA it would likely die off 
before getting into coastal MS and then that redevelopment overnight 
we previously thought was possible would likely occur tomorrow but 
be farther east and southeast possibly completely out of the area 
and into AL and the Gulf. Still anticipate a few showers and 
thunderstorms tomorrow early but we should begin to dry out tomorrow 
afternoon with ridging quickly building in. 

Our next weather maker is already starting to slowly take shape but 
it is a complete mess right now. By Monday it should be a rather 
deep L/W trough having just crossed the Continental Divide while mid 
lvl ridging dominates the region. As we heading into Election day 
things start to pick back up but the forecast is definitely not 
clear cut and confidence honestly has taken a bit of a hit with the 
latest medium range model guidance. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Focus on the extended portion of the forecast is our system Tuesday 
and into Wednesday. Models had come into much better agreement the 
last few days well there is definitely some disagreements with 
respect o how they handle the mid lvl pattern and the multitude of 
features. This has lowered confidence quite considerably in the 
forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday night. We will still see a pretty 
decent system along with a front which will bring showers and 
thunderstorms to the area the question though is timing and 
intensity. Because of that there were NO adjustments from the latest 
NBM. 

Models are struggling with how to handle everything with respect to 
the large L/W trough off the west coast and the mid lvl jet coming 
out of the east Pac and merging into it tomorrow night over the 4 
corners region. Typically with that much wind and most of the mid 
lvl jet downstream of the trough axis it should want to pull the 
trough north/lift it out and along with that most of the dynamics. 
There are some issues though. There will still be some strong mid 
lvl winds upstream of the trough axis and then there may be another 
strong s/w diving south out of Canada Monday night and into Tuesday. 

A few different options then occur. First if that strong s/w 
develops and dives south out of Canada it would cause the L/W trough 
to rapidly close off and much farther north, over the north-central 
CONUS. This would then leave a much weaker trough axis at the base 
moving into the Lower MS Valley maybe even be held back to the 
southwest leading to a slower time frame. This also has any sfc 
reflection well north of the area and not much of a front moving 
into the region. We would still see rain and some thunderstorms but 
the risk for strong to severe storms would greatly be reduced. This 
also may keep a good chunk of Election day on the drier side thanks 
to a slower time frame. 

Another option would be if that s/w doesn't develop or is much 
weaker as it drops south. It still looks like the trough would close 
off given all of the energy that merges with it over the 4 corners 
but it would be a much broader closed low and it would close off 
farther to the southwest. This would lead to a much more defined and 
sharper trough axis and possibly even take on a negative tilt as it 
tries to move through Tuesday night. The main associated sfc low 
would still be well north but there would likely be a weak wave 
along the front farther south closer to the region. This scenario 
would continue to lead to the threat of strong to severe storms 
along with locally heavy rain. It also has more potential for 
showers and maybe some embedded thunderstorms during the day which 
would impact voting sites. 

Right now this system is still in the Pacific and with this much 
energy the models are struggling. We should hopefully begin to 
tighten things up tomorrow as it finally begins to move into the 
upper air network we start to get some better data and sampling. 
With that like was said earlier stuck with the NBM which has high 
PoPs Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night and then tapering off 
during the day Wednesday. Rainfall amounts being advertised right 
now is not overlie impressive but those will get adjusted as well 
depending on how thins evolve. After this move through we move into 
more zonal flow and and dry out the rest of the work week. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

We are strating to see some MVFR cigs develop as low clouds and even 
some rain have developed. OVer the next 6 hours it may be a little 
intersting as aactivity could pick up over the western half of the 
CWA impacting mostly BTR between 22 and 4z. Storms would impact 
other temrinals across SELA along with MCB between 23 and 5z. These 
storms would bring at least MVFR cigs and vsbys but if the rain gets 
heard enough vsbys could fall into IFR status for short time. Right 
now we aren't explicitly showing IFR conditions but the most likely 
candidates would be BTR and MCB. Conditions would improve somehwat 
overnight but still expect MVFR cigs over most of the terminals 
tonight. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

into early next week as a broad surface high pressure system sits to 
the north of the area. Winds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 
knot range in the lakes, sounds, and bays through the weekend and 
into early next. However, the open Gulf waters may see slightly 
higher winds of 15 to 20 knots over this period, resulting in 
choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet. Winds look like they slack off tonight 
enough to keep headlines out for now but there is a good chance the 
outer waters will need SCS headlines again Sunday and possibly 
through Monday. This persistent east wind will also lead to some 
minor coastal flooding less than one foot above ground level for 
east facing shores through the remainder of the weekend. We are 
already seeing some showers and a few thunderstorms which will 
continue tonight and Sunday as a weak disturbance passes through.

/CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ070-
     076-078.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ086.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB