485 
FXUS64 KLIX 231040
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
540 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 529 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Tropical Storm Bertha is moving westward away from the area with
  gradually improving conditions during the morning hours.
  Tropical Storm Warnings continue for lower portion of Terrebonne
  Parish and adjacent coastal waters.
  
- Minor coastal flooding is expected to continue for this morning's
  high tide cycle before conditions improve. 

- Impactful heat conditions are likely to return this weekend and
  persist beyond that.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Forecast was updated after the 4 AM CDT NHC advisory on Tropical
Storm Bertha. Only remaining area under a Tropical Storm Warning
is lower Terrebonne Parish, and that will probably be dropped
later this morning or early this afternoon as Bertha continues
westward. Coastal Flood products will remain in place until the
end of this morning's high tide cycle. 

Still isolated showers moving across the area. Main remaining
forecast question will be how much redevelopment of precipitation
occurs once we get some heating in a few hours. Will hold isolated
to scattered coverage in place at least this morning, but we
should dry out this afternoon with subsidence in the wake of
Bertha. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha continues to move westward away from the
local area early this morning. Scattered rain showers wrapping
around the system will continue to move northwestward across much
of the area for the remainder of the night, but anything more than
light rain will be very short in duration. 

With winds out of the southeast behind the system, tide levels are
expected to remain elevated for one more high tide cycle before
water levels diminish. We earlier extended the coastal flood
products through the end of the morning high tide cycle.

Beyond today, little or no precipitation is expected through the
weekend. Today's cloud cover will likely hold high temperatures in
the lower 90s for most areas, and heat index values are likely to
remain in the 103 to 107 degree range, so not planning on a Heat
Advisory for today with this package.

There's going to be abundant sunshine Friday through Sunday, which
is going to take high temperatures right back to the levels that
were occurring Sunday and Monday. High temperatures in the middle
and upper 90s are expected to be common all weekend. Heat
Advisories are likely to be necessary for portions of the area for
Friday through Sunday, especially along the Interstate 10 and 12
corridors. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

An upper ridge will be nearly stationary over Oklahoma and Texas
for the first half of next week, with surface high pressure over
the Gulf. Precipitable water values won't be much higher than the
25th to 50th percentile climatologically during the period, so if
there is any precipitation at all, it won't be much more than 
isolated thunderstorms during the heat of the day.

Unfortunately, that means high temperatures will remain above
normal, with highs potentially approaching 100 degrees on multiple
days. Heat Advisories and/or Extreme Heat Warnings are a pretty
good bet for Monday, Tuesday and probably Wednesday for a large
portion of the CWA. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Mostly VFR conditions early this morning, but there are spots of
MVFR ceilings, and a low probability of IFR ceilings for the next
2-3 hours. With surface heating, may actually see more terminals
report occasional MVFR ceilings during the morning hours. May also
see some increase in areal coverage of SHRA/TSRA through about
midday, but they won't last very long in any one location. As
subsidence moves into the area this afternoon, should see all
terminals improve to VFR. At least a limited potential for MVFR
visibilities in light fog at KMCB toward sunrise Friday.

Gusty winds could still be an impact this morning into early
afternoon before Bertha gets far enough away to reduce the
pressure gradient. Gusts to 25 to 30 knots still possible this
morning. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha continues to pull away from the local
waters. Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be dropped over the
western waters later this morning or afternoon. Where warnings
have been dropped, they've been replaced by Small Craft Advisories
while conditions slowly improve. Friday through much of the
weekend should see much improved conditions for marine operations.
By Sunday night and Monday, we may need some Small Craft Exercise
Caution headlines, but conditions aren't expected to be anywhere
near those of the last 24 hours.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ097. 

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LAZ058-
     077-080-082-093-095-097-098.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for LAZ070-
     076-078-091.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ529-
     531>536-543-553-554-557-572-575-577.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ541-551-570. 

MS...Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for 
     MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for 
     GMZ531>536-543-553-554-557-572-575-577.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ551-570. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW