390 
FXUS64 KLIX 091046
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
546 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 543 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast through 
  the forecast period. The overall severe weather threat will be 
  low, but one or two storms could become strong to severe each 
  day. 

- Primary threats with storms will be strong wind gusts, frequent
  lightning and periods of heavy rain leading to localized flash 
  flooding. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A broad and deep high pressure system centered over the Deep South
will exert more influence over the area today, resulting in much
drier conditions. PWATS will fall to near the 25th percentile for
this time of year over the northern third of the CWA, generally
along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. This drop in PWATS will
be entirely driven by increased deep layer subsidence and the
resultant drying and warming in the mid and upper levels
associated with the broad high centered north of the area. The end
result will be suppressed convective development with less than 10
percent rain chances in place from I-10/12 northward today.
Temperatures will easily warm into the mid 90s beneath this
subsident airmass, but increased boundary layer mixing of the
drier air aloft down to the surface will allow dewpoints to plunge
into the mid to upper 60s this afternoon. This will keep heat
index values in check at around 100 degrees today. The only area
that will see PWATS near average will be along the coast of
Louisiana where the influence of the ridge will be weakest. PoP of
30 to 40 percent is in place for this area as scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms develop. Given the drier air aloft, any
deeper updrafts that form could produce strong wind gusts of 30 to
50 mph.  

Tomorrow through Saturday will see conditions turn more favorable
for increased convective development. This will be in relation to
a shortwave trough axis digging into the central and southern 
Plains, and an inverted trough axis over the western Gulf feeling
the influence of this trough. The inverted trough will slowly 
move back over the forecast area for the weekend. PWATS will 
surge to between the 75th and 90th percentile for this time of 
year, as deeper tropical moisture feeds into the mid and upper 
levels of the atmosphere. Additionally, increasing vorticity and 
forcing aloft will be sufficient to support extensive updraft 
development as temperatures climb into the upper 80s each day and 
SBCAPE climbs to between 1000 and 1500 J/KG. Given the favorable 
environment for convective development, PoP of 60 to 80 percent is
in the forecast from Thursday through Saturday. The primary 
concern will be slower storm motions and continued high rainfall 
rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour that could lead to some localized 
flooding concerns. This will be especially true in low lying and 
poorly drained areas where a higher probability of flooding will 
be in place Thursday, Friday, and Saturday afternoons. This 
flooding will mainly be confined to street and underpass flooding 
that could close some roads. Temperatures will be near average and
the rain and cloud cover will help to keep heat index values 
below 105 each day. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Upper level ridging will start to build on the eastern part of the 
continental US while the weak trough over the midwest down to the 
Gulf coast weakens. We'll still see daily popup storms especially in 
the afternoon although the chances are still a bit iffy, the NBM 
still seems to be running a bit high on PoPs. Moisture levels look 
to be around the normal for this time of year (~1.9 in PW) so storms 
will generally have efficient rainfall rates. There's plenty of 
instability as usual for this time of year so they will be the pulse 
storms that grow tall and big off seabreezes/outflow boundaries but 
lose support just as quickly. But we could see some stronger winds 
on collapsing storms. 

High temperatures will be right at or just above normal for late 
summer. As of right now the ever so slightly lower temperatures and 
dew points should keep places below heat advisory criteria 
especially with the popup storms likely to bring more cloud cover 
and cooling rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

The only concern will be scattered storms firing up near HUM
today, mainly between 14z and 20z. PROB30 wording is in place for
this terminal to reflect gusty winds and reduced visibilities as
any storms pass through. Overall impacts will be very short-lived
at 30 minutes or less on average. Outside of the convective
concerns at HUM, prevailing VFR conditions will be the rule at the
remainder of the terminals today into tonight.  

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Easterly winds around 15 knots are expected over the waters east of 
the Mississippi River today as a weak tropical wave slides through 
the Gulf.  These higher winds will push wave heights to 2 to 3 feet 
over the eastern waters and create choppy seas.  As the wave slides 
to the west on Thursday and Friday, high pressure will build back 
over the waters.  Winds will turn southerly and fall back to 5 to 10 
knots as the high over the eastern Gulf expands to the west.  Seas 
will also fall to 1 to 2 feet as the winds decrease.  These 
conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG