915 
FXUS64 KLIX 011121
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
621 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

 - Clouds increase later today as the next weather system
   approaches the area, introducing light rain chances mainly
   across coastal and SE LA tonight. Little, if any impacts
   expected.

 - Another reinforcing shot of cool air filters in Sunday through
   Tuesday, with chilly morning temps yet again and a few colder
   areas reaching the upper 30's.

 - A warming trend builds into the middle to later parts of next
   week, reaching the low 80's for many areas while staying dry. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Now this is the correct way to enter the month of November with 
cool, crisp temperatures and clear skies to start the day. From 
the earlier update, it was mentioned how verification for lows 
yesterday morning were on the cooler side of ensemble guidance 
(closer to the 50th percentile) while NBM deterministic guidance 
was biasing warm, generally closer to the 75th, if not slightly 
above. Temperature trends were loud and clear tonight, as hourly 
temps were plummeting earlier in the late evening/early night 
which required a few ESTF updates to capture the steeper nocturnal
dip which reflects the intense degree of radiational cooling 
under surface high pressure. Jumped on board these trends and 
implemented a widespread lowering in inherited guidance several 
degrees cooler, bringing lows generally similar to what we saw 
yesterday morning with lows at the NBM 50th percentile with 
emphasis in lowering across the Pearl River and Pascagoula 
drainage basis. 

Otherwise, we're headed towards yet another beautiful day but, 
we're already keeping eyes on the next system taking shape over 
the northern US. As advertised for a few days, a large upper-
level low/positive tilt trough will slide south in connection 
with a departing secondary impulse over New England. What this 
will do is "slingshot" this disturbance south and promote a 
steady increase in quasi-zonal flow and moisture advection 
emitting across from the southern Plains. What we'll see first in
response to this trough nearing closer will be increasing mid to 
upper- level clouds (altocumulus/stratocumulus and cirrus) as CAM
proximity soundings and RICAPS analysis illustrate later this 
afternoon. Meanwhile in the surface to low-levels, we're staying 
high and dry with the same dry/cool continental airmass remains 
tucked in place across the northern Gulf coast. As this trough 
continues to approach later this evening/overnight, increasing 
PVA and subtle dynamic ascent in conjunction with sfc to low-level
frontogenetics will support shower and eventually t-storm 
development over the NW Gulf. For days now, the major question 
here was how far north precip can make it following the greatest 
available lift and attendant moisture. Going to hang tight with 
what consistency has shown, and what the 01Z NBM presented hitting
20-30% Pops along the immediate SE LA coastline to around 10-15% 
for the Southshore. Introduced drizzle in lighter PoPs as this 
type of regime supports what could be eventual low- level wet 
bulbing starting as virga, and could produce some light showers or
drizzle across the Southshore/River parishes tonight. Any farther
north, and we're a bit farther away from greater low- level lift 
and attendant moisture where the dry air may likely win over. 
Regardless, no impacts anticipated but some folks could wake up 
Sunday morning to some light showers or drizzle around for far 
southern areas.

Beyond that going into the day on Sunday, the front passes through
and so does the attendant trough axis, promoting building CAA
across the region. Clouds are not likely to linger, meaning we'll
see sunshine return in full force which (shouldn't) mess with 
highs, just might need to monitor if clouds can linger later for 
coastal MS but right now that's not looking very likely. KLG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night) 
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Going into early next week, CAA continues as cooler continental 
air settles into the region. We'll see how soon winds can shut 
down late Sunday night into Monday morning, which will determine 
how cold it gets but for now, with CAA and this reinforcing shot 
being pretty notably strong, it should still drop many areas into 
the low 40's to even some upper 30's yet again for traditionally 
colder (protected) areas like the Pearl River and Pascagoula 
basins. Tuesday, surface high pressure settles in shutting the 
winds down completely with pleasant fall days starting out the new
week ahead. 

Going into the middle to later part of next week, the big story
turns to a developing (anonymously strong) ridge dominating most
of the US. The ridge center peaks to around 591dm over the
northern Gulf which is quite impressive, and will yield much
warmer temperatures across the region. As mentioned yesterday,
highs will have no problem crossing the 80's for many areas,
perhaps getting into the low to mid 80's for some. NBM
deterministic values for now are anywhere from 78-81, but am
pretty confident we'll see some 82-84's out of a pattern like
this, so we'll see how trends progress and identify the need to
adjust temperatures but for now, the main story is much warmer to
end the week while remain high high and dry. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions at all forecast terminals at forecast issuance. A
few non-forecast airports reporting patchy fog, but area cameras
indicate these conditions are not widespread. Mostly clear skies
early this morning, but expect high clouds to start spreading into
the area around midday, with mid level clouds arriving late
afternoon or early evening. Only terminal that will show a mention
of precipitation is PROB30 for -SHRA at KHUM this evening, with 
potential for MVFR conditions. Can't entirely rule out a few
sprinkles at KBTR/KMSY/KNEW this evening, but expect little to no
impacts. Clouds are expected to quickly depart the area prior to
12z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Quiet and cool conditions will persist during the day today, however 
our next weather system approaches marine waters later this 
afternoon into tonight. For now, expecting to see periods of light 
to moderate rain showers and perhaps some embedded thunder across 
Gulf marine zones later tonight. Impacts are expected to be limited. 
Then, a front will sweep across coastal waters as winds transition 
offshore from the north. At this time, winds will build anywhere 
into the 10-15kt range, but could reach 15-20kts especially for 20-
60nm zones. Expecting Exercise Caution headlines but winds could 
approach close to Small Craft Advisory criteria especially for the 
aforementioned outer zones. Will monitor trends in guidance if this 
continues. Otherwise it stays breezy through Monday before winds 
back off Tuesday into mid/late week with clear/calm conditions 
expected through the end of the week. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  44  65  38 /   0  10   0   0 
BTR  72  47  68  40 /   0  10   0   0 
ASD  71  44  70  37 /   0  10   0   0 
MSY  73  55  72  49 /   0  10   0   0 
GPT  70  49  72  43 /   0  10   0   0 
PQL  72  43  72  37 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...KLG