775 
FXUS62 KKEY 021829
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
229 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of
today and into tonight. While showers may form over mainland and
push over the island chain later this evening, high uncertainty in
exact timing and placement will leave mention out of either TAF
for now. Near surface winds will be out of the northeast to east
at 5 to 10 knots, freshening overnight. 

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The environment surrounding the Florida Keys is transitioning back
to a more seasonal state as high pressure along the Eastern
Seaboard settles in. GOES-19 visible imagery notes northeast to
east breezes accelerating across the Florida Peninsula while a
lazy convergence boundary drifts southwest through our waters.
Along this boundary, KBYX radar detects a handful of isolated
showers along with an embedded thunderstorm or two. Variable
breezes from earlier this morning quickly transitioned to gentle
north to northeast breezes as the previously mentioned convergence
boundary marched over. Mostly clear skies now persist over the
island chain as temperatures report in the mid 80s with dewpoints
persisting in the mid to upper 70s. 

While some pockets of dry air remain in our CWA, the overall
thermodynamic profile has moistened up from last night. This
morning's KKEY 12z sounding measured a PW increase of about a
tenth of an inch from last night nosing the value above the 25th 
percentile for the day. While this does not sound all that 
impressive, northeasterly low level winds will help pull in 
residual moisture left behind by now Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda
over the Florida Peninsula and Bahamas. This flow may also pull 
in showers that develop on mainland Florida into our eastern
waters later today. Opted to hold a chance of showers for the day
keeping us near normal for this time of year. As high pressure
along the Eastern Seaboard continues to extend south, winds will 
continue to freshen out of the northeast overnight. Accelerating 
flow along with the promise of more moisture will keep chance PoPs
into tomorrow.

&&

.FORECAST...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The main focus for shower development today will be across the 
mainland during the day and afternoon, which will then drift south
to southwest across the island chain. The best chances will 
across the Upper Keys with the Lower Keys having a lesser chance 
depending on if the activity holds together. The aforementioned
high pressure along the East Coast will slowly attempt to move
into the western North Atlantic. As this occurs it will gradually
continue to build equatorward and exert more of its influence
across the Florida Keys.

This will result in freshening northeast to east breezes Friday
with an increased threat for showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm. Then eyes will turn to a feature that will develop
across the Southeastern Bahamas starting Friday. A subtle easterly
undulation will be moving along the periphery of the Bermuda High.
The trajectory would focus it across South Florida, including the
Florida Keys. Models are struggling with any form of 
organization. Best case scenario it remains a broad area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms with a quasi-warm front
lifting north across the area. This would equate to a wet weekend
for at least portions of the Keys. Worst case scenario (and we 
want to preface that the National Hurricane Center only has a 10 
percent chance of development at this time) a weak tropical 
disturbance takes form. At this time, it is way too early to tell 
what this feature may ultimately become but it does bear watching 
in the meantime.

Whether a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, or
a weak tropical disturbance, it will move northwest into the Gulf
over the upcoming weekend. By early next week, high pressure along
the Eastern Seaboard will fill back in with freshening northeast
to east breezes. This combined with residual moisture looks to
continue the above normal rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high 
pressure is slowly moving across the eastern U.S., which will 
maintain a northeast wind across our waters today. This high will 
begin moving into the western North Atlantic later today and into 
the overnight and gradually build. This will lead to freshening 
northeast to east breezes into Friday evening. Winds will then 
briefly clock around towards the southeast for the upcoming 
weekend and return from the east early next week. Another period 
of moderate to fresh breezes is possible starting Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  77  88  77  88 /  30  30  40  40 
Marathon  77  85  77  87 /  30  40  40  40 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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