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091 FXUS63 KIND 141338 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 938 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous showers and thunderstorms through much of the weekend - Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be the primary threat through this evening - Cold air funnels may be possible today - Near daily risk for showers and isolated t-storms through much of next week...severe storm potential for Wednesday-Thursday - Warm and muggy conditions are expected through the upcoming week with partial relief to less humid conditions in the late week && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 938 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 As of early this morning, shower coverage has gradually begun to decrease for much of the forecast area but a swath of moderate to locally heavy rain continues across an axis from north of Rockville up to northern Madison county. Flash flooding is ongoing across portions of this area with radar estimates and morning CoCoRaHS reports showing amounts that locally are in excess of 6 inches. Increased the POPs across this area based on the latest radar and hi- resolution guidance with a gradual decrease towards the early afternoon. The surface low is currently situated over southern Illinois and will slowly move eastward into the afternoon. Expectations are that additional shower development will pick up later this morning into the early afternoon along a broad area of ascent across southern Indiana. Thunder chances will be fairly minimal with moist adiabatic lapse rates and and little shear aloft. Otherwise no major changes were needed to the forecast with conditions evolving as expected. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Slow moving showers will continue for much of today, as a low slinks through the Ohio Valley, before finally pushing off to the SE by tonight. Overnight, showers were persistently draped across the northern portion of the forecast area. CAMs are showing this will continue into the morning hours, possibly letting up on the intensity some after daybreak. PWats however will remain above 1.5" through much of the day, so even if coverage is less, isolated heavy rain and localized flooding will remain possible. Those in north- central Indiana should be especially cautious of any flooding that may have formed overnight, and heed road closure signs if they exist. With the low nearby and very weak flow aloft, there is a heightened risk for cold air funnels today. Lapse rates will be nearly moist adiabatic with very low LCLs which combined with the weak near surface convergence near the front will create nearly ideal conditions. With numerous outdoor activities, will be issuing an SPS to highlight the threat for cold air funnels. The front associated with the low should then finally push SE around midday to the afternoon hours, finally moving most of the precipitation out of the forecast area tonight. Despite the passage of a front and winds shifting from southerly to more northerly by tonight, there will be very little effect on the temperatures. Highs today will again range from the mid 70s to near 80 while lows tonight will be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Next week will continue the recent humid and seasonably warm pattern as Indiana sits between a upper zonal pattern retracted north...and subtropical surface high pressure slowly building over the southeastern CONUS that will maintain muggy conditions via southerly flow out of this air mass. A more pronounced northern stream H500 short wave around the Thursday timeframe is expected to cross the Great Lakes before a subsequent broad upper ridge builds northward over the vast majority of the US and into the Midwest as the long term period ends. Sunday should be dry for most locations, although a few, mainly afternoon showers/t-storms will be possible south and east of Indianapolis. Diurnally driven, yet mainly only widely scattered convection is expected Monday into the mid-week. Greater chances of organized storms, or at least appreciable rainfall exist for late Wednesday into Thursday when the tail of the passing northern wave should focus anomalously high precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. The potential for severe weather may hinge on whether impressive instability can linger long enough to combine with shear arriving from the northwestern Midwest. Perhaps a brief window for moderated humidity towards the end of the workweek before the muggy pattern returns, and perhaps with higher temperatures as the upper ridge builds into Indiana. Afternoon maximums in the 80s will be the rule per H850 temperatures in the 15-20 degrees Celsius range, yet higher humidity will boost heat index values above 90F at times, especially for Tuesday and Wednesday when moderate to robust southwesterly breezes will bring dewpoints to near 75 degrees. Overnight lows within the 65-70F range is expected for most locations. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 706 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Impacts: - IFR/MVFR CIGs improving to at least MVFR today...and falling back to MVFR/IFR tonight at most terminals - -SHRA at KLAF this morning...and all other terminals this PM with isolated TSRA possible...which may include MVFR visibility - Wind shift from S to NE during the day today from north to south Discussion: Scattered showers and low clouds will persist across the area throughout much of the forecast period as a weak boundary slowly crosses the region from north to south. MVFR and IFR ceilings will persist into midday to the afternoon before finally briefly improving to low VFR at at least KHUF/KBMG. Winds sustained under 10KT will gradually shift to northeasterly as the boundary passes today. Chances for thunder will be greatest during the afternoon, with any cells isolated to widely scattered. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...White SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...AGM AVIATION...AGM