418 
FXUS62 KILM 211843
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
243 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisory was cancelled
as winds and seas were slowly diminishing and dropped below
criteria.



&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A deep layer of northerly winds will maintain a dry Canadian 
airmass through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A deep layer of northerly winds will maintain a
dry Canadian airmass through the remainder of the week.

Persistent northerly flow continues over the Carolinas between 
a ridge over the southern Plains and deep low pressure almost 
300 miles east of the Virginia coast. This low is expected to 
continue drifting north through Thursday before being shunted 
away to the northeast for the weekend. With high pressure in 
control of the weather locally, dry weather, clear skies, and 
generally below normal temperatures are forecast through the end
of the week.

Continued the trend of greater diurnal ranges and adding a bit 
to daytime highs and subtracting a bit from lows, plus lowering 
daytime dewpoints to account for the dry air mixing down.

As the low moves farther off into the north Atlantic, Canadian 
high pressure will expand south down the eastern seaboard
through late week. As the high moves south this weekend, the
winds will veer enough to capture a bit more moisture off the
water. This should alter the humidity a bit and create slightly
higher overnight lows, but sufficient ridging aloft will maintain
dry weather. May see a shower pop up offshore. 

Northeasterly winds will also pick up again into this weekend 
as low pressure develops near the Bahamas and tightens the 
gradient between the high building down the east coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR continues with clear skies and northerly winds. Added some 
gusts this afternoon, but winds will diminish and should remain
lower through the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...VFR will continue through the period. Breezy 
northeasterly winds could gust to 25 knots at times Friday
through early Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Deep low pressure centered almost 300 miles 
east of VA will drift northward through Thursday. Locally, winds
and seas were subsiding as this low was moving farther away and
gradient was beginning to relax over our waters. 

North-northeasterly winds will remain gusty this afternoon but
will diminish to generally remain 15 knots or less through 
Thursday, along with a longer period NE backswell, leading to 
slowly improving marine weather conditions.

Canadian high pressure will begin to nose south along the East 
Coast Friday as low pressure develops over the Bahamas, leading 
to a tighter pressure gradient and increasing winds and seas for
the weekend. Small Craft Advisory conditions should develop 
across the coastal waters Friday, and there is at least some 
potential for gusts to Gale force across the offshore forecast 
zones (20-60 miles offshore) beginning Friday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EDT this evening for 
     NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/RGZ
DISCUSSION...TRA/RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/RGZ