028 
FXUS62 KILM 281038
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
638 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather is expected for much of the week as two low 
pressure systems affect the region. Dry high pressure should 
return behind a cold front on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Overrunning due to low pressure off the SC coast and CAD wedge 
inland continues to produce light rain across the area. Light 
rain will continue through this morning before coverage starts 
to diminish as coastal low exits to the northeast and isentropic
lift weakens. Overcast skies will remain in place throughout 
today and into tonight with elevated northeast winds reinforcing
low level moisture within CAD layer. Gusts 30+ mph will again 
be possible across the area today. Minimal diurnal temperature 
range today with highs in the mid 50s inland (only a few degrees
higher than current temps) and around 60F close to the coast. 
Another weak low begins to develop off the SE coast tonight as a
second, stronger upper trough approaches, maintaining gusty NE 
winds. Dry air moves in above 700mb this evening and tonight in 
SW flow aloft, removing pops by Wednesday morning. Low temps 
tonight in the upper 40s/low 50s, with wedge still in place, 
though beginning to weaken towards Wed morning, and persistent 
low stratus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cutoff low over the TN Valley and associated surface low will 
try and spread another round of rain across the area Wed into 
Thu. Ahead of the Wed night into Thu system, wedging remains in 
place, keeping skies cloudy and holding afternoon temperatures 
below normal. Given the saturated low levels cannot rule out 
non-measurable drizzle or mist in the afternoon or evening. As 
far as more significant rainfall goes, a lot of mid-level dry 
air spreads north later Wed into Thu, limiting potential for 
deeper convection or heavier rain ahead of the warm front. The 
warm front lifts across the area Wed evening with the cold front
not far behind, moving southwest to northeast in the pre-dawn 
hours Thu as the surface cyclone becomes occluded. Best rain 
chances will be with the cold front which has a narrow slug of 
deep moisture with it and very weak instability. Boundary layer 
is stable, but elevated convection is possible, although the 
limited instability will likely keep any showers weak and 
scattered at best. Sharp clearing line arrives Thu morning as 
healthy dry slot wraps around the 5h low and rain chances more 
or less drop to zero by daybreak Thu. Abundant sunshine will 
lead to strong winds at the top of the mixed layer, generally 
25-30 kt, surfacing in the form of gusts 25-30 mph Thu 
afternoon. Afternoon temperatures Thu will be similar to those 
on Wed, low to mid 60s. Lows above normal Wed night drop below 
normal Thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Healthy amount of uncertainty in the long term. Following the 
exit of the mid-week storm, a broad, longwave 5h trough sets up 
over the e astern half of the CONUS. The evolution of the 
trough, its sharpness and how far south the trough extends will 
have a large influence on conditions for the end of this week 
and the start of the next. Shortwave energy moving through the 
trough is likely to lead to some increase in cloud cover, but 
rain chances are limited by the weak nature of these features, 
lack of widespread, deep moisture, the uncertainty with respect 
to where the shortwaves track and the lack of any strong surface
features. The trough will help keep temperatures below normal, 
both during the day and at night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread IFR ceilings will remain in place across the area 
through the TAF period (12z Wednesday) and beyond, with low 
level northeast winds within CAD wedge reinforcing the moisture,
with ceilings hovering around 1000ft. Light rain will be on and
off through today, with thunder expected to remain well 
offshore. North-northeast winds will remain gusty through 
tonight, with gusts around 25 kts through this evening and 
potential for higher. 

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions due to low ceilings are 
expected to persist through mid-week, with VFR conditions 
forecasted to return on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... 
Coastal low currently off the SC coast will exit to the 
northeast, maintaining gusty NE winds with high pressure wedge 
inland. Gale Warning remains in place for gusts of 35 kts 
through this evening before winds weaken slightly tonight, 
though remaining in the 20-25 kt range with gusts to 30 kts. 
Seas 6-8 ft today through tonight, with 9 footers possible in 
the outer SE NC waters tonight, predominantly due to NE swell 
with a weaker 2-4 ft SE swell mixed in. Low chance of thunder 
across the local coastal waters through early this morning, with
on and off light rain through this afternoon and evening 
creating drops in visibilities.

Wednesday through Saturday...
Despite a brief lull in wind speeds and a slight improvement in
conditions Wed afternoon, still expecting an extended period of
elevated winds and seas across the near shore waters. Small 
Craft Advisory is likely to be required for at least a portion 
of Wed continuing through Thu night and possibly the first half 
of Fri. Strong northeast flow early Wed will quickly veer to 
south-southwest Wed night with speeds increasing to a solid 25 
kt. Low pressure passing west of the waters drags a cold front 
across the region early Thu. Strong gradient in place behind the
front ensures flow remains 20-25 kt as direction veers from 
southwest Thu to west-northwest Thu night. Speeds start to 
decrease Fri as the gradient relaxes and end up under 10 kt by 
Sat. Seas 5-8 ft at the start of the period quickly trend down 
as northeast flow weakens. Seas dip under 6 ft late Wed but then
flirt with 6 ft Wed night through Thu night, mainly due to the 
directional component of the wind. Southwest to west flow will 
limit seas within 20 nm. By Fri seas will be 2-4 ft dropping to 
2-3 ft Sat. The wind wave will be the dominant wave for much of 
the week, from the northeast Wed into Wed night with a south- 
southwest wind wave developing later Wed night through the end 
of the week. Late in the week an east-southeast swell becomes 
dominant.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III/VAO