National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGRR Received: 2019-02-18 11:39 UTC


982 
FXUS63 KGRR 181139
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
639 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

- Snow tapers off Monday morning. Additional dusting to 1" of snow
  possible. 

- Dry and cold through midweek

- Light snow developing Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with
  wintry mix possible Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Snow has already begun to diminish tonight and thus the Advisory is 
canceled. Expect lingering flurries and light snow to continue into 
the Monday morning commute allowing for some possible travel 
impacts. An additional dusting to 1" of snowfall will be possible 
with this lingering snow before conditions dry out mid-morning. 

Quiet conditions will then return for the rest of the day Monday as 
an expansive area of high pressure drifts across the Great Lakes 
through Tuesday. Rather cold temperatures in the negatives to single 
digits expected Monday night into Tuesday as light winds, clearing 
skies, and a fresh snowpack help aid in radiational cooling.

Attention now shifts to the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame as a 
mid-level and surface low pressure approaches from the south-central 
plains towards the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region bringing with it 
light snow with some mixed precip. Warm and moist air advection 
combined with upper-level diffluence will support an area of 
precipitation over the region through much of Wednesday. As the 
precip shield approaches from the south late Tuesday/early 
Wednesday, snow will be the main p-type before the warm layer lifts 
north during the day. With the most abundant moisture to the 
southeast of our area, only a few inches of snowfall look likely for 
southwest lower MI through Wednesday morning. During the 
afternoon period a wintry mix with some possible freezing rain may
impact travel conditions. High pressure then filters into the 
Great Lakes region Thursday and Friday bringing back dry 
conditions. 

Next period that has attention in the long term is Saturday. Still 
quiet a bit of disagreement on overall track and thus impacts, but 
bears watching moving forward. No matter the track, it still appears 
the temperatures will be marginal enough to have some type of mixed 
precip possibility. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 639 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Areas of IFR early this morning will give way to MVFR then VFR
later this morning as the snow winds down. North winds around 10
knots today will go light and variable tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1226 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

Ice continue to impact the area around Portland. The weather
pattern will remain colder than normal so we do not expect the ice
to break up any time soon. Elsewhere...we are looking at some very
cold overnight low temperatures the next couple of nights. So
there will likely be some additional ice forming. We will continue
to monitor the situation closely.

A moderating trend is forecasted with the temperatures for the end
of the week. At this time any melting would be rather gradual
based on the current forecasts.   

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Honor
DISCUSSION...Honor 
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...MJS