497 
FXUS63 KGLD 281834
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1234 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- South winds may occasionally gust up to 40 mph during the
  afternoon hours today and tomorrow. The risk of high winds
  (over 50 mph) and any impacts is low (less than 10%).

- There is a low (10-15%) chance for an isolated thunderstorm 
  in eastern Colorado from 2-11pm MDT Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1231 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Partly cloudy skies, 10-20 (gusting to 30) mph southerly winds, and 
temperatures in the low 80s were observed early Sunday afternoon 
across eastern Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas. 
RAP mesoanalysis suggests an area of 300mb divergence associated 
with the left exit region of the upper level jet will continue 
lifting northward across central Colorado through the evening, 
deepening the surface low forming along the Front Range and favoring 
continued breezy conditions until the boundary layer decouples 
shortly after sunset. This, combined with the diurnal max in surface 
based instability, will favor percolating showers and storms over 
the higher terrain to our west, though it would appear our deep 
subcloud dry layer and lack of forcing will prevent them from 
developing this far east; hence, precipitation chances remain 
generally 5% or less over the tri-state region through tonight.

Though southerly winds will ease considerably this evening, there 
still looks to be enough of a breeze (~10 mph) overnight to hold 
temperatures a little warmer than past nights, especially given 
we'll have more clouds around tonight; forecast lows are in the mid 
to upper 50s. Despite the warmer start, surface temperatures are not 
forecast to climb quite as high tomorrow given slightly cooler 
temperatures aloft and less deep mixing. Nonetheless, it'll be 
another seasonably warm and breezy day with temperatures climbing 
into the low 80s area-wide, and southerly winds gusting over 30 mph 
during the afternoon. Tomorrow evening will also feature a better, 
albeit still low (15%) chance for a stray shower or storm as a weak 
shortwave trough shifts through the region. The CAMs don't look 
particularly aggressive with this activity, but nearly all of 
them show at least one or two showers/storms across eastern 
Colorado during the 2-11pm MDT timeframe. Again, dry low levels 
will prevent all but the heaviest precipitation from reaching 
the surface.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025

The upper level (200-300mb) flow splits Tuesday into Wednesday, with 
one branch of the jet stream diving east-southeastward across the 
Southern Plains and Deep South and the other lifting northeastward 
across the Pacific Northwest. This leaves the High Plains and much 
of the Great Basin Regions under weak forcing, though there is still 
some enhanced 500mb vorticity lingering overhead into Wednesday. 
Thus, we can't rule out a stray shower or storm (10-15% of LREF 
membership have it) Tuesday night into Wednesday, particularly if 
something can get going over the Front Range, as 500-850mb 
(steering) flow would take it northeastward into the tri-state 
region. However, confidence is unusually low given the lack of 
forcing and (lack of) deep moisture. Otherwise, expect above normal 
temperatures to continue through the middle of the week with highs 
in the low to mid 80s; for reference, normal highs are in the mid 
70s for late September and early October. Deterministic global 
models seem to agree that the surface pressure gradient will relax a 
bit by Wednesday, offering a brief repose from the gusty south 
winds, but there are some early indications those will pick back
up by the end of the work week.

Given potential influence by a pair of tropical systems in the mid 
Atlantic, the upper level pattern becomes increasingly nebulous 
Thursday and beyond. In general, deterministic and ensemble 
guidance suggest a positively tilted ridge will build from the 
Desert Southwest or Southern Plains northeastward into the 
Midwest, but then (28.00z) cluster analysis suggests differences
crop up in how amplified that ridge becomes and how quickly it 
shifts east or is eroded on the western flank by one or more 
troughs developing across the West. By the start of the weekend,
we've got 3 potential outcomes: The first (55% chance) features
a trough developing in the Great Basin and nudging into our 
area, resulting in an onset of active weather, which could 
include storms, wind, and perhaps a temperature swing along a 
front by Friday night or Saturday. The second (25% chance) 
maintains relatively zonal flow over our area and keeps any 
trough(s) across the Northern Tier and Canadian Prairies, 
suggesting our weather would be tranquil with little to no storm
chances and near to slightly above normal temperatures (upper 
70s to low 80s). The third (20% chance) builds a strong ridge 
over the Great Basin and Plains, suggesting light winds, dry 
conditions, and much warmer than normal temperatures (mid 80s to
around 90). While our deterministic forecast remains subject to
considerable changes for this late week period, confidence 
information will be included here; stay tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Only noteworthy weather feature at each airfield over the next 24 
hours will be stiff south-southeasterly winds which are forecast to 
gust to 20-25 kt at MCK and nearly 30 kt at GLD this afternoon 
before easing after sunset (00-01z). Aided by mid to high 
clouds, those winds should stay up enough (8-11 kt) overnight to
prevent fog and low clouds from developing, then pick back up 
tomorrow by midday/18z. Not mentioned in the TAFs is the 
potential for marginal low level speed shear with a 40 kt 
southerly low level jet (LLJ) around FL015 from roughly 04-14z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bumgardner
LONG TERM...Bumgardner
AVIATION...Bumgardner