912 
FXUS63 KGLD 021729
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1029 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is forecast to develop over portions of the area
  overnight tonight, lasting into Wednesday afternoon. Most of
  the area will not even see an inch of snow from this system.

- Patchy blowing snow midday Wednesday in eastern Colorado may
  lead to minor travel impacts.

- Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 113 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Over the past few hours, temperatures dropped into the teens 
before a low-level ridge moved across the area. This has lead to
west-southwesterly winds gradually warming the CWA up a few 
degrees from downsloping flow and weak WAA. 

The WAA is expected to continue into the day. Combined with some 
more sun shining through, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 
mid to upper 40s across the area. There is some wiggle room for the 
highs depending on clouds. More sky coverage and some places will 
not climb out of the low 40s, but if more sun shines through, 50s 
will be seen across parts of the area. Winds will become light and 
variable in the afternoon as a very weak trough moves over the area.

Overnight tonight gets a bit more interesting. The aforementioned 
trough will allow an 850 mb low to form early in the night, 
southwest of the area. This will pull in cooler, saturated air from 
the north. There still looks to be a dry layer around 50-100 mb 
thick at the surface. A heavy cloud deck will move in overnight, and 
starting around 0-3Z over the western CWA, 500 mb vorticity 
associated with a 250 mb trough axis, will move over the CWA. This 
will provide forcing and moisture to lead to some flurries and light 
snow. This potential for light precipitation will expand eastward, 
covering most of the CWA by 9Z. There is a lot of disagreement from 
the models regarding the potential for this precipitation, largely 
revolving around if the forcing will occur and if the dry layer will 
lead to only virga. Current confidence in light snow leading to 
trace to no accumulation before 12Z Wednesday across most of the CWA 
is about 30-40%.

By 12-15Z Wednesday morning, model disagreement dissolves over the 
western CWA as the main trough starts to sweep through the area. 
Snow is expected to continue along and west of KS 27 between 12 and 
21Z Wednesday. This main wave of snow will move in from the 
northwest and generally progress to the south throughout the day. 
Snow may occur farther east until the afternoon. The western halves 
of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado have a 50-60% chance 
of seeing an inch of snow. There is only a ~40% chance of localized 
accumulations of an inch east of the Colorado border, and potential 
rapidly declines farther east.

In the midday Wednesday, mainly 15-21Z, winds gusts are forecast to 
be in the 20-25 MPH range. This could lead to blowing snow, mainly 
in eastern Colorado where winds and snowfall will be strongest. 
Current confidence in blowing snow reducing visibility to less than 
1 mile is about 20-30%. Nuisance (>5 mile visibility) blowing snow 
has a 30-50% chance of occurring in pockets across the CWA as snow 
falls.

Temperatures from the NBM show highs warming to just above freezing 
for most of the CWA. With ongoing precipitation, dew points expected 
to stay below freezing, and mostly cloudy to overcast skies expected 
throughout the day, it seems unlikely temperatures will be this 
warm. Most likely, temperatures west of about KS 27 will warm to 
just below or right at freezing, and locations to the east will see 
the above freezing temperatures.

Wednesday night, an 850 mb high pressure system looks to descend 
from the Northern Rockies. This will slowly clear the skies over the 
CWA and help temperatures cool into the teens by Thursday morning. 
The northeastern CWA is expected to clear first and have efficient 
CAA from the high's flow. This is leading to a 50% chance of 
temperatures dropping into the single digits along and northeast of 
McCook, NE to Hill City, KS. Wind chills Thursday morning look to be 
in the single digits down to 0 in the cold, northeastern
portion.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

The central plains will be under northwest flow this period,
downstream from a ridge axis off the western CONUS. Occasional
shortwaves coming over the ridge will bring only slight
precipitation chances, with measurable amounts of rain and/or
snow looking unlikely at this time. None of these systems are
strong enough to warrant any wind concerns and relative humidity
minimums are well above any fire weather concerns. So what
amounts to basically a temperature forecast will start off
around 10 degrees below normal on Thursday, a bit cooler in any
snow covered areas of Colorado, followed by near normal
temperatures on Friday, around 5 degrees above normal on
Saturday, near normal on Sunday behind a weak cold front, and 5
to 10 degrees above normal on Monday. Normal highs are in the
upper 40s and normal lows are around 20.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through 03z with increasing
potential for reduced flight categories at both terminals as 12Z
approaches. Strong cold front will sweep through the area
overnight with somewhat moist upslope flow developing behind it.
Potential for IFR stratus and fog to develop around 12z is
highest at KGLD and think IFR conditions will prevail for
several hours at KGLD. After initial surge in cloud cover 
behind front, differential cold air advection will likely 
destabilize things enough for scattered light snow showers to 
develop after 15z. While these will be short lived and likely 
not amount to much, if any, accumulation they may bring 
intermittent periods of IFR/MVFR conditions. 

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM