883 
FXUS63 KGLD 171059
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
459 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions possible this afternoon from
  the Tri Border area into northeast Colorado.

- Temperatures warming to near and slightly above normal through
  early next week, warmest in Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Ridge centered over the Southern Plains will be the dominant
upper feature through the period. Dry conditions with
temperatures generally near or slightly above normal are
expected. Warmest temperatures will be in northeast Colorado 
today and Sunday where downslope winds near the lee trough will
bump temperatures into the 70s. This will also lower afternoon 
humidity minimums and result in fire weather concerns, from the 
Tri Border area southwest into Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne 
counties in northeast Colorado. Afternoon minimums today in 
those areas will be as low as 8-12% and on Sunday 10-15%. Winds 
today peak in the morning and then diminish somewhat in the 
afternoon, but still will be very close to the 25 mph threshold 
for Red Flag. Confidence is around 50% for reaching critical 
criteria this afternoon for a few hours between 18-00z. On 
Sunday, winds appear to be too light with the lee trough axis 
moving further east. By Monday relative humidity improves with 
light winds, so not expecting any fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

The overall synoptic pattern in this forecast period features two 
different setups. Guidance continues to outline a ridging pattern 
continuing through Wednesday; exhibiting high-pressure, dry air, and 
southwesterly flow aloft. A duo of shortwave troughs are expected to 
propagate through the system, the first of which early Tuesday and 
the second one Wednesday. Weak low pressure is expected to develop 
at the surface as well with these features. However, no fronts or 
precip is anticipated. Thursday through Friday is when ensemble 
guidance has begun to display a longwave trough developing and 
moving across the southwestern CONUS. Said trough could become 
negatively tilted and eject a jet streak through the County Warning 
Area (CWA). This would likely boost surface winds for Friday. As 
this deepening system makes its way across the western US, a strong 
surface low is likely to develop in the northern Rockies, moving 
eastward into the northern Plains late Thursday. Simultaneously, a 
cold front likely moves through the CWA late Friday evening.

Model guidance is quite confident on Probability of Precipitation 
(PoPs) presenting less than 10% initially, which means very low 
chance of rainfall through Wednesday. Elevated PoP chances first 
present around the evening timeframe Thursday. 20-35% is forecast 
right now but this could very well change as models get a better 
grasp of the synoptic setup. Heading into Friday, Rainfall chances 
have seen a bit of a boost from recent long-term forecasts, 
particularity later on in the evening when the frontal passage is 
underway. 25-35% PoPs early in the day should see an uptick to 30-
50% through the evening hours. Dewpoints should range around the mid 
to upper 50s so there will likely be adequate moisture to work with. 
At this time low confidence exists for any of this activity becoming 
convective, given the projected low CAPE/low bulk shear environment 
but will have to be monitored as we head into next week.

A warming trend, with respect to high and low temperatures, should 
persist across the CWA and last through pre-frontal passage Friday. 
Tuesday high temps consistently low/mid 70s should increase a bit to 
upper 70s/low 80s on Wednesday with subsidence, via the ridge, 
dominating the region. Highs are anticipated to peak on Thursday in 
the low/mid 80s then settle around the upper 70s to low 80s range 
mid-afternoon before the cold front arrives. Overnight low temps are 
expected to originally be cooler Tuesday/Wednesday mornings(40s-low 
50s) then become milder for Thursday/Friday with consistent 50s 
across the entire CWA. 

Fire weather will be monitored leading up to this four-day period.
Relative humidity (RH) values in the 25-45% range are forecasted 
each day through Friday during peak heating late afternoon. 
Wednesday will be the driest day as RH could dip into the 20s across 
a good chunk of the CWA at or west of US-385. It will be quite humid 
each night as temperatures cool to the dew point. Moving onto 
surface winds, Thursday and Friday are likely to be the windiest 
days during this period and could see stronger 25-35 mph winds, 
gusting 40-45 mph in eastern Colorado. Gusts up to 30 mph are 
generally possible everywhere else on Thursday and Friday. At this 
moment in time, no areas of critical fire weather are forecasted. 
Nonetheless, elevated fire weather is still possible, especially 
areas west of the Colorado/Kansas state line where lower RH matches 
up with stronger winds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 458 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK with clear skies
and southwest winds gusting up to 25 kts in the afternoon. 

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for 
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092.
NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for 
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/AMP
AVIATION...024