497 
FXUS63 KGID 010817
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
317 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible (20-40%) across
  the area this morning. 

- Above normal temperatures Thursday-Saturday with highs in the
  mid 80s to low 90s. 

- Thunderstorm chances return to the area Saturday night-early
  next week. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Today...

Temperatures this morning are currently in the 60s. A passing 
shortwave combined with the Low Level Jet have resulted in scattered 
shower/thunderstorm development west of Highway 281. These 
showers/storms will continue to become more widespread over the next 
few hours, with a north-south line of storms centered along Highway 
281 around sunrise. These storms are not expected to be strong or 
severe given weak shear and CAPE. Storms will decrease in coverage 
during the mid-morning hours as they move into eastern portions of 
the area and the LLJ weakens with any lingering rain ending around 
noon. Skies clear this afternoon behind the departing shortwave 
trough. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are expected across the 
area but could be lower/higher if cloud coverage is more/less 
widespread. Breezy southerly winds gusting 20-25mph are expected 
this afternoon. Clear skies and light winds tonight will result in 
temperatures sinking into the mid 50s to low 60s. 

Thursday and Friday...

Southwesterly flow aloft-weak ridging builds over the area on 
Thursday as troughing moves into the west coast. Above normal 
temperatures are expected over the area, with highs in the mid-upper 
80s, around 10-15 degrees above their climatological normals. Sunny 
skies and light winds will make for a pleasant day across the area 
on Thursday. 

Slightly warmer weather is expected on Friday as southerly flow 
strengthens over the area. Highs will climb into the upper 80s with 
some areas sneaking into the low 90s. Breezy southerly winds are 
expected on Friday, gusting 20-30mph. 

This Weekend Onwards...

An upper level trough moves into the Rockies on Saturday as ridging 
builds over the Great Lakes. Another sunny and warm day is expected 
on Saturday as highs once again climb into the mid-upper 80s. Gusty 
winds are expected across the area on Saturday. The EPS shows a 40-
80% chance for gusts over 40mph across the area Saturday afternoon. 
Scattered thunderstorm chances return to the area Saturday night as 
storms move in from the west. 

As the trough moves into the Plains on Sunday, it will a cold front 
through the area during the day. Highs in the 70s to low 80s are 
expected on Sunday, coolest behind the cold front. Another round of 
thunderstorms could develop along/behind the cold frontal passage 
Sunday afternoon-night though there remains uncertainty how much 
develops along the front. 

Cooler weather is expected behind the cold frontal passage on Monday 
and Tuesday. Highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, warmest across 
portions of north central Kansas. Additional disturbances move 
across the area next week, bringing scattered chances for rain to 
the area though details remain uncertain giving increasing model 
spread. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored through TAF period. Before sunrise,
scattered showers/storms are expected to develop near-around the
TAF sites, moving east across the area through the mid-morning
hours. The timing, location and duration of storms is uncertain,
so kept a PROB30 group but a prevailing group could be added if
confidence increases in a period of steady showers/storms. Can't
completely rule out a brief drop to MVFR conditions in a storm,
but confidence is too low to include a mention at this time. Storm
chances come to an end by the late morning hours, ending first 
at KEAR then KGRI. Skies will gradually clear behind the storms,
becoming clear by the evening hours on Wednesday. 

Southerly winds around 10kts are expected overnight, but
increase during the mid-late morning hours on Wednesday.
Sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts around 20kts are expected
during the afternoon hours at KGRI and KEAR. Winds decrease
around sunset, with gusts falling to 10kts during the evening 
hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis