883 
FXUS63 KIWX 081720
AFDFWA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1230 PM EST TUE JUN 8 2004

.AVIATION...
DIURNAL CU FIELD NOW PRESENT OVER THE AREA. EXPECT TO REMAIN SCT FOR 
MAJORITY OF THE AFTN. WILL KEEP BOTH TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW AS FRONT 
STILL HANGING BACK TO NORTHWEST LEAVING THE AREA WITH NO GOOD FOCUS 
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MVFR HZ/BR TO FWA AGAIN TONIGHT OTHERWISE 
NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THIS PERIOD. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTION 
CHANCES. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK GOOD AND VERY FEW CHANGES MADE. LOCAL 
AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER 
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER AREA 
TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL 
RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF AREA. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME 
QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON DURING MAX HEATING WITH MESOETA 
INDICATING CAPES 2500-3000 J/KG AND LI/S TO -6. PWATS ALSO RISE TO 
OVER 1.5 INCHES WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER 
RIDGE OVER AREA AND NVA INDICATED IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS...NO 
STRONG TRIGGER OTHER THAN MAX HEATING WILL BE PRESENT. MESOETA 
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 88F WHICH IS JUST BELOW FORECAST 
MAX TEMPS AROUND 90. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TSRA 
DEVELOPING WITH MAX HEATING BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS 
TIME TO WARRANT ADDING POPS BACK INTO FORECAST. GUIDANCE AND 
EXPERIMENTAL WAM NUMBERS SUGGEST HIGHS AROUND 90 ON TRACK. SCT-BKN 
AFTERNOON CU COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPS 
IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE HAPPENED UPSTREAM 
ON MON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE 
FRONT NEARING NORTHERN AREAS SO KEPT LOW CHANCE POP FAR NORTH 
OVERNIGHT.
  
&&

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT WITH A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH THROUGH 
MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THAT AND HIGH 
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IS STILL IN QUESTION 
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH THE 
FRONT ON THURSDAY. THEN LATER FRIDAY MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT IT WILL 
BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS A LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO JUST NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS. ON SATURDAY THE 
WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WHILE A COLD 
FRONT SITS OUT TO OUR WEST YET. SO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF POP IS 
WARRANTED THOSE DAYS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SATURDAY COULD 
BE DRY BETWEEN THE FRONTS BUT IT IS STILL DAY 5 YET SO LEFT THE 30 
POP IN THERE. THEN THAT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE TO OUR WEST SHOULD 
MOVE THROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD 
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AS THE THINKING FOR THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME 
HASNT REALLY CHANGED THAT MUCH...LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY AS THAT 
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US...THEN WARMING BACK UP SOME AS THAT 
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US.
&&


.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
&&

$$

LASHLEY/LOTHAMER