299 
FXUS63 KFSD 031727
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1127 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to just above normal temperatures will continue into the
  work week along with quieter conditions. 

- After mostly dry conditions throughout the week, precipitation
  chances will increase a bit heading into the weekend. However,
  any accumulations will be light with ensemble guidance only
  showing low confidence (20%-30%) in a tenth of an inch or
  greater of QPF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

TODAY & TONIGHT: Another mild day ahead! Taking a look across the 
area, a mid-level cloud deck continues to gradually progress 
southwards this morning with a few pockets of embedded sprinkles 
mostly driven by increasing 700 mb frontogenesis and a weak nocturnal 
LLJ. While this could lead to some spotty accumulations early this 
morning, should see this activity gradually diminish by daybreak as 
the frontal forcing weakens with southward progression. From here, 
should be another warm and quiet day as a surface high progresses 
through the area. Light northwesterly winds and lingering cold air 
advection (CAA) aloft will slightly decrease our temperatures for 
the day with highs mainly in the 50s to low 60s expected. Looking 
into tonight, conditions will again trend above normal with 
overnight lows expected to be in the mid to upper 30s and low 40s. 
As a weak wave traverses across the SD/NE border, can't rule out a 
few additional sprinkles mainly south of I-90 as increasing dPVA 
interacts with another nocturnal LLJ. Nonetheless, accumulations 
will be spotty at best similar to what we've been experiencing this 
morning.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Looking into the midweek, mostly quiet conditions 
continue on Tuesday as quasi-zonal flow returns aloft. A cold front 
will swing through the region from Tuesday night into Wednesday. 
However, with limited saturation according to soundings; not 
expecting any precipitation chances with this frontal passage. 
Nonetheless, the increase in CAA and shift to northwesterly surface 
winds should do just enough to temporarily decrease our highs from 
the 60s to low 70s on Tuesday to the low to upper 50s by Wednesday. 
As the SPG tightens by Thursday, we'll see the return of warm and 
breezy conditions with highs returning to the mid 50s and mid 60s as 
a warm front approaches. Southerly to southwesterly surface winds 
will become breezy with wind gusts between 25-35 mph possible during 
the afternoon hours. Lastly, while a broad troughing pattern will 
setup over our area by Thursday; limited saturation will keep any 
precipitation chance at bay for the rest of the period.

THE WEEKEND: Heading into the extended period, an active pattern 
continues aloft as the previously mentions troughing progresses 
overhead. With a return to northwesterly surface winds and lingering 
CAA aloft, should see temperatures gradually cool down over the 
weekend with highs mainly in the 40s to 50s. While we'll start the 
weekend dry, could see an uptick in precipitation chances by 
Saturday as a quick wave dives across the Northern Plains. While 
long-range guidance continue to differ in the placement of the 
feature, this will likely be our next best chances for anything 
precipitation-wise. Ensemble guidance tends to agree with the 
sentiment as most members show low confidence (20%-30%) in at least 
a 0.10" of an inch of QPF or greater. Depending on temperatures 
during the onset, p-type could vary between rain, snow, or a mix of 
the two. With this in mind, we'll have to continue watching things 
over the coming days to iron out key details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will turn from the 
west-northwest to the south through the period as a high pressure 
system slides off to our east. Winds will pick up a bit late tonight 
into tomorrow morning, gusting up to around 20 kts, strongest in 
south-central South Dakota. The nocturnal low-level jet will kick up 
late tonight as well, causing LLWS concerns at KHON and KFSD. Can't 
rule out some sprinkles tonight mainly south of I-90, but chances 
are too low (5-10%) to warrant mentioning at KSUX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...Samet