985 
FXUS63 KFGF 040017
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
717 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost advisory in northwestern Minnesota tonight. There is a
  50 percent chance for temperatures below 32 degrees in some
  spots.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

The next approaching shortwave is evident on water vapor imagery
in Saskatchewan. Already a surge of mid and upper level clouds
associated with this wave knocking on the US border. This, along
with the progressive nature of the surface high leads to
questions just how temperatures will go and how long we remain 
cold overnight. Guidance continues to paint a bullseye of 
coldest temperatures in northwestern MN, which is where the 
frost advisory is in effect. Therefore, no changes to going
headlines at this time, and only minor updates to the grids. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper low will continue to dig into the Great Lakes, with a
reinforcing shortwave coming down out of Canada tomorrow.
Another surface low bringing some rain as well as a reinforcing
cold front will create a fairly fall-like day tomorrow with
highs in the 50s. Winds could even flirt with advisory criteria
in our western counties as cold air advection behind the surface
low aids mixing. However, at this point Bufkit soundings are
just shy of advisory criteria, so will hold off on any wind
headlines for now. Northwesterly flow aloft remains through the
rest of the week and into the weekend. Another reinforcing 
shortwave looks to move through Saturday, and could see another 
chance at frost Saturday night/Sunday morning. After that, the 
flow deamplifies and the region will see a warming trend. 

...Frost/freeze chances tonight...

Cumulus clouds currently over most of our forecast area will
dissipate after sunset. There will be more mid-level clouds
coming in from the northwest later tonight as the next shortwave
approaches, but should get some clear skies and good radiational
cooling for at least a few hours tonight. The center of the
surface high moves quickly across eastern ND this evening and
settles well to our south by morning, so winds will not be light
and variable for a huge amount of time. Still, mid of the road
runs of the NBM have widespread temperatures in the mid 30s, and
the 10th and 25th percentile have some locations in the bog down
to around 30 degrees. NBM has around 50 to 55 percent 
probability of getting to 32 or below, but the HREF only has 20 
percent chance for freezing in that same area. Given wind and cloud 
concerns will lean towards the middle of the ensemble group rather
than the coldest solution. Have a frost advisory for
northwestern MN north and east of a Hallock to Park Rapids line.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 717 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Complicated TAF period as clouds lower, winds shift and
precipitation pushes through the region over the next 24 hours.
Ceilings will rapidly lower towards/after sunrise, with IFR
expected through much of Thursday. Rain will overspread TAF
sites from northwest to southeast Thursday morning. Even after
steadier rain ends, showers can be expected through Thursday
evening, with little/no improvement in ceilings. Winds will
pinwheel from north this evening, back to southerly Thursday
morning, then northwesterly by late in the TAF period. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ004>009-
     013>017-022>024-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Rafferty