460 
FXUS63 KFGF 250439
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1139 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog may develop Saturday morning west of the 
  Red River Valley in eastern North Dakota.

- Warmer then average through the weekend with gusty winds on 
 Sunday.

- High confidence in a widespread wetting rain early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Showers are almost completely out of our area (and should be
within the next 30 min in Wadena County). Skies are clear while
southeast winds are holding up (5-15 mph). Forecast is on track
for the night, with the next focus on the possible dense fog
event Saturday morning west of the RRV, and the signal remains 
in place; see previous update discussion.

UPDATE
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

High based light showers/sprinkles associated with the mid level
low are still lingering over west central MN, but are
transitioning east-southeast. Adjustments were made to reflect
this light precip lingering through the early evening in our
eastern CWA. Amounts where this activity has been track have
been very light (a trace to a few hundredths).

Looking ahead to Saturday morning, unidirectional southerly 
gradient across the Northern Plains should support low level 
moisture advection, and there is a signal in CAMs and NBM probs 
for advection fog after 5am through the morning hours along and 
west of the Red River Valley escarpment, likely benefiting from 
southeast BL upslope enhancement. This appears to be a 
consistent signal and adjustments to fog coverage in the favored
region were made to reflect this.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...Synopsis...

Troughing across the eastern half of the North America will 
gradually fill in via ridging to its west over the central plains 
and shifts east with split flow in the western and central CONUS 
turning more zone by early next week coinciding with our next 
precipitation chance. In the meantime shortwave ridging in the 
central CONUS will keep temperatures above average in our area by 
about 10 to 15 degrees (normal highs in the mid 40s to low 50s) as 
highs this weekend reach the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Prior to all of this in the near term however we have a compact very 
positively tilted upper low swinging southeast from southern Manitoba 
today. As the low moves over the region weak isentropic upglide and 
warm air advection will lead to some scattered showers in the north 
central Minnesota from Thief River Falls and Baudette down through 
Bemidji and Wadena. Other than these brief showers a dry day for 
most. Moving into the weekend the aforementioned ridge brings 
surface high pressure centered over the great lakes with the core of 
the pressure gradient squarely over the Dakotas and Minnesota. While 
this brings a low chance of any rain and widespread warmer than 
average temperatures the flip side is increasing winds with high 
confidence in wind gusts over 30 mph on Sunday afternoon. However 
despite the signal from NBM QMD for wind gusts over 45 mph I have 
reservations in believing this due the synoptic pattern not 
favoring a higher end scenario like this. For starters this will be 
much more of a warm air advection regime which is less prone to a 
deeply mixed boundary layer that leads to a momentum transfer of 
winds from aloft to the surface despite winds near 1km aloft of over 
45-50kts. Second the winds will be southerly with is not a 
climatologically favorable wind direction for gusts > 35 mph in the 
region. Will have to continue to monitor trends for any potential 
wind headlines as those remain the main concern compared to any fire 
headlines with RH likely to stay well above 40 percent with 
southerly winds helping to keep dewpoints up and thus minimal 
concern for near critical fire weather.

- Early Week Rain

Zooming back out with the pressure gradient advancing east and zonal 
flow impinging upon the northern plains with diffluent flow at the 
jet level and multiple shortwaves easing through the region with 
widespread rain Monday and Tuesday. While a generally unimpressive 
system from a forcing perspective Pwats will exceed the 90th 
percentile leading to a 40% chance for more than a quarter inch for 
all of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota between Monday 
morning and Tuesday night.

Beyond Tuesday and through the end of next week flow aloft becomes 
increasing northwesterly with transient shortwave activity possible 
but the main story will be temperatures returning closer to seasonal 
norms with highs in the 40s and low 50s with lows in the 30s each 
night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

VFR conditions should prevail across far eastern ND and 
northwest MN through the majority of the TAF period, with the 
best chance for MVFR and IFR conditions towards the Devils Lake 
Basin (KDVL area) west of the immediate Red River Valley 
Saturday morning and again Saturday night. Low level moisture 
increases after 10Z in ND west of the Red River Valley and 
advection fog/stratus is shown by guidance to develop (LIFR
where dense fog sets up). The highest chance for IFR impacts 
looks to be close but just southeast of KDVL, but there is still
a 30% chance for IFR impacts during the 12-16Z period at that 
TAF site.

Southeast winds have already increased at KFAR above 12kts with
gusts 20-25kt in a climatologically favored direction for that
terminal. Winds should remain under 12t at other TAF sites 
until after 12Z Saturday morning with 14-16kt sustained winds
prevailing across much of the region through the remaining TAF
period (strongest gusts to 30kt during the daytime period). Low
level wind shear is expected at KBJI early in the TAF period as
a system exits, and a developing LLJ Saturday night may bring 
low level wind shear to the entire region after the current TAF 
period. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...DJR