392 
FXUS63 KFGF 262331
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
631 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in a widespread soaking rainfall Monday and
  Tuesday, 80% chance for greater than 1" in parts of northeast
  North Dakota with isolated areas of greater than 2" likley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Winds dropping off to the point the wind advisory was allowed 
to expire at 6pm though gusts of 25-30 mph are still expected 
within the Valley tonight and another surge of 35+ mph gusts is 
possible in the afternoon on Monday. The rest of the forecast 
remains on track with rain expected to begin in the Devil Lake 
basin no later than 5am and working towards the state border by 
noon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to pick up tonight as
upper ridging moves east. A lead shortwave will start to move
out into the Northern Plains tomorrow, bringing increasing
precipitation chances. The main trough comes out into the Plains
and starts to develop into a split flow Tuesday, with the
main upper low moving well to our south and blocky upper level
ridging over the Upper Midwest. A northern branch shortwave will
dive down out of Canada into the Northern Plains on Thursday,
with the main upper low along the Manitoba/Ontario border by
Friday. Weekend pattern is still in flux with a lot of variation
between the ensemble members, but should be trending towards
northwesterly flow aloft by Sunday.

...Winds this afternoon and evening...

Gusts have been up to around 40 to 42 mph in the Fergus
Falls/Rothsay area, so expanded the wind advisory a bit further
to the southeast. There was one report around 1815Z at
Cooperstown of a gust to 58 mph but given the isolated nature of
the report and has not repeated since, have not upgraded to a
high wind warning. Bufkit soundings for the Red River Valley
counties show good momentum transfer through 5 or even 6 pm, and
could see some pretty high gusts continuing. Have the advisory
going a bit longer, although the western edge may be starting to
come down before sunset. Winds will continue to be quite strong
into tomorrow as the surface trough axis approaches, but not
confident enough to go with a double headline at this point.

...Rain Monday and Tuesday...

With the lead shortwave on Monday and the main trough on
Tuesday, there will be ample moderate synoptic lift for the
early part of the week. There continues to be a good signal for
mesoscale banding as mid-level frontogenesis sets up over
central or eastern ND. CAMs have some pretty high precipitation
totals, and agree that a narrow band of 1.5 to two inches will
be possible. At this point the highest probabilities of over 1
or over 2 inches from the HREF look to be from the western  
Devils Lake Basin into the Langdon area. However, best chances
for heavier rainfall amounts will continue to shift so will
monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Winds dropping off with periodic gusts upwards of 25kts tonight
with sustained winds over 15kts for most from the south.
Ceilings becoming MVFR as early as 4am for DVL and around 4pm
for FAR and GFK. TVF will likely remain near VFR/MVFR thresholds
through this time on Monday with BJI filling in shortly
thereafter. Rain will generally precede MVFR ceilings by a few
hours so use that as a benchmark for imminently worsening 
conditions. Winds while not strong enough for another wind
advisory will still be strong tomorrow for all sites at 15-20kts
from the S/SSE and gusts over 30 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT