053 
FXUS62 KFFC 211737
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
137 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Key Messages:

	- Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
      expected mainly across North GA.

	- Warm, slightly above normal temperatures persist.

Mostly clear skies again this morning. Expecting some patchy 
areas of fog around daybreak but they should burn off shortly
after sunrise. A high pressure wedge is building back down the 
eastern seaboard into NE GA and should be entrenched across the 
entire state by 12z-18z Today. This ridge/wedge will keep things 
fairly stable across the region but we will see increased cloud 
cover this afternoon with the moist easterly flow. Could also see
some isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and 
evening mainly across North GA due to the orographic affects of 
the mountains. Any storms that develop should stay below severe 
limits with instability indices staying fairly weak and the high 
pressure ridge helping to cap things off. This ridge stays across 
the area Monday so should be a similar situation tomorrow also. 
High temps will be mainly in the 80s to near 90 Today and Monday 
with some upper 70s in the NE GA mountains. Low temps will be in 
the 60s. 

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Key Messages:

  - Showers and thunderstorms continue to trend more likely for the 
later part of the upcoming week.

  - Above average temperatures are expected to persist through 
Wednesday, with near to just below average temperatures at the end 
of the week due to rain and cloud cover.

As the long term period begins on Monday night, broad upper level 
ridging will be centered offshore of the Atlantic Coast and 
continuing to move eastward. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the 
Mississippi River Valley will continue to approach from the west. 
Between these two features, Georgia will be positioned underneath 
southwesterly upper level flow, which will lead to advection of warm 
and moist air into the forecast area. During the overnight hours 
into Tuesday. Monday night into Tuesday, an anticyclonic rossby wave 
break along the anticyclonic side of the upper jet is expected to 
occur over the northwest CONUS. The resulting cutoff low that 
develops will play an important role in how the forecast shapes up 
in the mid to late parts of the week.

Guidance continues to come into better agreement on the timing and 
evolution of this system. Over the course of the day on Tuesday, the 
cutoff low will drop southeastward through the central Rockies into 
the Great Plains. As this occurs, the axis of the aforementioned 
trough will be displaced to the northeast towards the Tennessee 
Valley region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be most 
likely in the far northern tier on Tuesday afternoon, closest to the 
base of the trough, as a result. After the morning begins in the low 
to mid 60s on Tuesday, highs will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s 
during the afternoon. On Wednesday, the cutoff low is expected 
continue across the Great Plains towards the Southeast, with an 
associated surface low progged to develop over the Ozark region on 
Wednesday afternoon. This setup will keep Georgia underneath 
southwesterly flow aloft through midweek, which will contribute to 
the warmest day across the majority of the forecast area on 
Wednesday, with highs forecast to rise into the upper 80s and low 
90s in the majority of north Georgia and into the mid 90s in central 
Georgia. These temperatures will be as much as 8-12 degrees above 
climatological normals for late September. Dewpoints will 
furthermore rise into the upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday.

Beyond this point, the latest model guidance indicates that the 
cutoff low is most likely to deepen as it moves towards the western 
Tennessee Valley region, while the developing surface low slowly 
meanders to the northeast. A cold front extending southward from the 
surface low is then progged to slowly advance towards the forecast 
area, with chances for thunderstorms increasing accordingly late 
Wednesday through Friday. PoPs between 40-60% are forecast to begin 
in areas to the north of I-20 on Wednesday night into Thursday 
morning, followed by PoPs between 60-70% on Thursday as the frontal 
boundary pushed into the area. Likelihood is increasing that we will 
be seeing some beneficial rainfall (especially in light of 
developing drought conditions). However, the exact coverage of 
precipitation and rainfall amounts will ultimately depend on the 
position and evolution of the upper level cutoff low and how it 
influences the surface low, where uncertainty still remains towards 
the end of the week. Increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms 
combined with the advance of the cold front is likely to promote 
cooling temperatures during the later parts of the week.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

VFR through TAF period. Cu field beginning to develop to the east 
that should spread over metro TAF sites this afternoon. RA/TSRA not 
expected to impact sites this afternoon and evening. Winds are on 
east side at 5-10 kts and will remain so through period. Expect 
another cu field tomorrow afternoon.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  63  85  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Atlanta         87  68  87  67 /  10   0  10   0 
Blairsville     79  60  80  59 /  30  10  20  10 
Cartersville    89  67  88  65 /  20  10  10  10 
Columbus        92  68  91  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Gainesville     85  65  85  64 /  10   0  10   0 
Macon           88  65  88  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Rome            90  67  90  66 /  30  10  20  10 
Peachtree City  88  65  87  63 /  10   0  10   0 
Vidalia         90  66  89  67 /   0   0  20   0 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Lusk