National Weather Service Raw Text Product

380 
FXUS63 KDVN 161733
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern continues today with chances for showers and
  storms. Overall confidence on occurrence and potential timing
  remains low.

- Current weather pattern makes for difficult forecasting as
  each day's chances for storms are not necessarily tied to
  distinct weather systems.

- Very warm/hot temperatures (highs in the 90s) becoming more
  likely next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Overall we remain on the edge of the heat dome and in the ring
of fire for MCSs. Today we have slightly better instability. The
overall flow is very messy with weak waves, MCVs and other
boundaries abound. Early this morning, a weak wave is moving
across northern Iowa. Scattered showers and storms have formed
in the vicinity of this wave. The wave is forecast to track east
through the mid morning. This could lead to showers and storms
mainly north of Highway 30 this morning. Deep layer shear with
this first wave is weak, around 20 kts. This suggests any
convection will be pulse in nature. With weak flow, they will be
slow moving as well. Overall very spotty storms are possible
this morning. If this convection is robust enough to develop
some OFBs today then we could see thunderstorm development
during peak heating today, otherwise the next wave doesn't
approach the area until this evening.

This evening, if we don't see convection during the day sapping
any instability, the next wave tonight could bring showers and
storms to the area later this evening into the overnight. Again
shear is around 20 to 25 knts, so slightly higher, but most of
this shear is above the 0-3km layer, suggesting that cold
pool/shear balancing for longer lived multicell storms is not on
the table for tonight. The bulk of this wave will move north of
the area tonight so forcing is not that strong. At the end of
the day, think that today will be much like the past few days,
scattered showers and storms with lightning and heavy rain the
main threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Largescale forecast remains on track through the long term as
mesoscale details are still hard to ascertain. A slow moving
front will slow and hold up across our area through midweek.
Repeated waves moving through the flow will interact with this
boundary and lead to chances for thunderstorms. PWATs over
1.5 to 2 inches along with warm rain processes will support 
heavy rain and a localized potential for flash flooding, 
particularly where any repetitive activity occurs.

Tuesday into Wednesday, a better defined and stronger wave is
expected to move across the stalled out boundary. This wave will
increase deep layer shear and shear in the 0-3km layer
suggesting that storms that develop will have better cold
pool/shear balance and chance to make MCS storms more long
lived. This will increase the severe wind threat on Tuesday and
Wednesday. A LLJ overnight into Wednesday morning may keep
storms going overnight.

Another round of storms is possible later in the day Wednesday 
into Wednesday night, as the main shortwave trough is still  
lurking upstream and progged to move through. MCS outflow and
attendant boundaries and where they lay out will be critical 
for where renewed convection and severe weather potential exists
later Wednesday into Wednesday night.  


.Prev Discussion 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025...

After this wave passes, models are in pretty good agreement on 
building an upper ridge into the area. Initially it's flatter/
less amplified and seeing some indications for embedded ridge
riding waves that will need to be monitored for some shower 
chances potentially. Next weekend there is general agreement on 
more amplification of the ridge with 500 mb heights of 592-594 dm
across the Mid-South, which looks to result in mainly dry but 
anomalously warm/hot conditions. Dew points in the mid 60s to 
lower 70s would suggest areas of potentially near triple digit 
heat indices (100F+) for some with latest LREF offering 20-40%
probabilities for heat index reading >100F, and so this will 
bear watching closely in the days ahead on this heat potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. The 
exception will be if any heavier showers or storms develop over 
the TAF terminals, which could result in MVFR visibility 
reductions in the heaviest rainfall. We are keeping an eye on 
showers and storms over northeast and north-central Iowa, with 
the heaviest storms farther northwest of our area. High-res 
guidance suggests that this activity could move through our 
northern areas this afternoon (most likely impacting DBQ), but 
coverage remains uncertain as it will weaken as it moves in. 
Overall, the models appear to show differing solutions for how 
this storm complex, and any future ones, will develop, so 
confidence in the forecast for tonight into Tuesday remains more
uncertain.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Schultz