National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDCTP
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDCTP
Product Timestamp: 2025-10-21 08:26 UTC
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518 FXUS61 KCTP 210826 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 426 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Mostly dry and breezy today, with some late day showers possible across northwest PA and the Alleghenies * Brisk, chilly conditions Wednesday through Friday, with frequent showers over northwest PA, and mainly dry weather otherwise * Early indications point to a generally rain-free pattern Saturday and Sunday && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Early morning satellite photos show some valley fog and patchy lower clouds in northwest PA, with generally clear skies elsewhere. This should lead into a sunny start to the day for most. By midday to early afternoon, though, clouds should be on the increase from west to east across the Commonwealth, in advance of a progressive surface cold front. Although this system will be moisture starved overall, the combination of upper-level forcing in the form of height falls/DPVA and orographic enhancement could well lead to some showers by late afternoon across northwest PA and the Alleghenies. Model soundings and convective indices do show the potential for a bit of destabilization this afternoon from about the Alleghenies back westward over western portions of the state. At this point, we feel the best prospects for isolated thunder will be west of the mountains. Although we may have to watch Warren county, we've opted to leave thunder out for now. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As an upper-level trough digs into the eastern states this period, several waves of DPVA and steady cold air advection in the 850-500 mb layer will lead to generally brisk and chilly conditions for the Commonwealth. Increasing lake-air temperature differentials (given still 60-65f Lake Erie water surface readings) and boundary layer moisture will almost certainly elicit a lake response and lead to bands of rain showers near and downwind from the Lake Erie shoreline. From Wednesday into early Thursday, projected low- level winds from the southwest should keep the most persistent lake enhanced showers north and west of Warren and McKean counties. However, Northwest PA could see an increase in lake- effect showers by later Thursday, as low-lovel winds are projected to veer into the wsst-northwest. Westerly component winds and sufficient low-level moisture should lead to occasional upslope showers just about anytime this period over and just downwind from the Allegheny plateau. Farther east across PA, mostly dry weather is foreseen this period, although it will be brisk and chilly, as earlier mentioned. If skies can sufficiently clear and winds diminish enough Thursday night (still highly uncertain), parts of the Lower Susquehanna Valley that have yet to see widespread frost could see their first occurrence of such this season. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... From this early vantage point, consensus of our ensemble prediction systems points to rising heights and a confluent height pattern aloft for the northeastern CONUS, as the mid to late week upper trough lifts out, with lingering NW flow in the mid-levels. this should encourage surface ridging to build over the region. All of this collectively indicates a drying air mass and slowly moderating temperatures. There certainly is potential for some lake-effect showers to linger over northwest PA Friday night and even into early Saturday, but generally speaking, these showers should be on the decline. By early next week, customary uncertainty creeps in with regards to how quickly short-wave riding aloft over the eastern CONUS breaks down. However, general consensus points to dry weather lasting through at least Monday. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread VFR under SKC overnight into early Tuesday. Expect wind shift to 170-240 degrees with 15-20kt gusts into Tuesday afternoon as a moisture-starved cold front sweeps across the airspace. A couple of passing rain showers may accompany the front and included PROB30s at the western & central terminals to reflect the low/brief rain chances. More frequent rain showers and sub VFR cigs will become persistent downwind of Lake Erie across the western TAF sites KBFD/KJST Tuesday night through mid/late week. Outlook... Tue-Fri...MVFR/IFR with frequent showers NW 1/2. MVFR/VFR SE 1/2. Sfc wind gusts 20-25kt from 230-260 degrees. Fri night-AM Sat...Showers ending/trending VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz NEAR TERM...Jurewicz SHORT TERM...Jurewicz LONG TERM...Jurewicz AVIATION...Steinbugl/Gartner