419 
FXUS64 KBRO 201712
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1112 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1107 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- A low to medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms are
  expected late Friday night through Saturday. Otherwise daily 
  low (15-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected.

- Adverse marine and coastal conditions are possible through early
  next week due to moderate to breezy winds.

- Noticeable changes in temperatures expected around Wednesday of
  next week after a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A cold front is expected to approach the region leading into the 
weekend and then stall out to the north of Deep South Texas and the 
Rio Grande Valley sometime into late Friday into Saturday. This will 
allow for greater chances of rain to occur late Friday through 
Saturday. Currently medium chances (around 50 to 60%) are expected 
for Saturday in the Northern Ranchlands with the Lower and Mid-
Valley having slighlty lower chances (around 40%) for Saturday. For 
Sunday and Monday, the chances for rain will become low (less than 
30%) for the entire area as the previously stalled frontal boundary 
retreats. Moving into the early part of the work week, another 
frontal boundary is expected to move into the region that will 
actually push through bringing both a low chance (less than 30%) for 
rain and a noticeable change in the temperatures as the high 
temperatures for Wednesday are mostly in the 70s to low 80s. Ahead 
of the frontal boundary breezy conditions are possible as the 
pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Generally VFR conditions are expected with southeasterly winds
persisting through the TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds are
expected to be gusty for the remainder of the afternoon period
with gusts up to 25 knots possible. With the low-level moisture
flow some low-level clouds are possible but nothing that should
affect the flight categories is expected. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A mostly favorable conditions are expected for a large duration 
of the period. However, starting Friday night, there will be a low
to medium chance (30-60%) of rain through the remainder of the 
period. In addition, a cold front is expected to move through the 
Lower Texas Coast during the early part of next week likely to 
result in a mixture of adverse to hazardous conditions, thus Small
Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are likely to be 
needed for this time period. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             74  89  74  88 /   0  10  10  40 
HARLINGEN               70  91  69  89 /   0  10  10  40 
MCALLEN                 73  93  74  91 /   0  10  10  30 
RIO GRANDE CITY         69  93  71  92 /  10   0  10  30 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  84  76  83 /   0  10  20  50 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     72  88  71  86 /   0  10  10  40 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64-Katz