National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO Received: 2019-03-26 19:55 UTC
253 FXUS64 KBRO 261955 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 255 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 .SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): The front has virtually stalled this afternoon along or just north of the river. Showers continue to form along and either side of the front and drift westward as drier air is trying to seep in from the northeast. No lightning has been observed thus far today, however some of the showers briefly produce moderate to heavy rainfall with Harlingen airport earlier reporting just over one half inch from a persistent shower. The showers are expected to continue drifting west as high pressure edges into the northwest Gulf pushing the drier air farther westward. Models indicate most of the activity to end by 00Z with some lingering showers across the Upper Valley and the Western Ranchlands this evening. Temperatures have been hovering near or slightly below normal today, fluctuating up and down with the passing showers and occasional thicker cloud cover. Clouds to linger tonight with partial clearing possible along the coast and the Lower Valley where the drier air tries to seep in. Overnight lows will be highly dependent on the cloud cover with all areas dipping into the 60s tonight. Some northern locations could drop into the 50s while the RGV might remain a few degrees higher then forecast minimums all depending if the clouds clear or hang around respectively. Models are in good agreement settling high pressure over the northwest Gulf and the Deep South Wednesday. This will continue to usher in limited drier air but at the same time veer winds to the southeast. Sufficient dry air in the mid-layers to mix out any remaining morning stratus by the afternoon with partly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailing and temperatures rebounding near or slightly above 80 degrees throughout the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across the south-central United States Thursday will weaken and flatten out allowing a more zonal flow to develop across the southern tier of the country Friday. A 500mb trough will develop across the northwest U.S. Friday and move eastward across the north-central U.S. Saturday. This will allow a frontal system over northwest Texas Friday to move northeast and bring a cold front into south Texas Saturday. Low to mid level moisture is progged to increase across deep south Texas Sat night into Sunday as the front moves into the area. Elevated convection is expected to develop along and in the wake of the front Sat night into Sunday before a 500mb shortwave trough across New Mexico into south Texas Monday. This should bring drier air into the Rio Grande valley Monday bringing an end to rain chances from west to east late Mon afternoon into Mon evening. Temperatures will be near normal for highs and above normal for lows Thursday through Saturday. Cooler air will move into the CWA Sat night into Sunday with below normal temperatures prevailing Sunday through Tuesday. && .MARINE (Now through Wednesday night): The cold front has likely stalled just south of the coastal waters and will continue to drift slowly south tonight dissipating Wednesday. Surface high pressure building into the Northwest Gulf through Wednesday will maintain a moderate northeast flow tonight veering east to southeast Wednesday. Moderate seas have developed with the bump in the northeast winds and should remain steady state through tomorrow. Conditions may briefly reach exercise caution levels, 15-20kts and 4-6ft, overnight but should trend slightly lower Wednesday. Thursday through Sunday...Moderate southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters Thursday with surface high pressure across the southeast United States and surface low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies. The pressure gradient will remain relatively strong across the lower Texas coast Friday before weakening Saturday as a cold front across northwest Texas Friday moves into south Texas Saturday. Light to moderate south to southeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Saturday before diminishing and backing the east Sat night. Winds will shift to the northeast and increase late Sat night into Sunday in the wake of the front moving offshore the lower Texas coast Sat night into Sunday morning. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for the offshore waters late Sat night into Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 78 64 77 / 10 0 0 10 BROWNSVILLE 65 80 64 78 / 10 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 62 81 63 80 / 10 0 0 10 MCALLEN 66 82 65 83 / 10 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 65 81 64 83 / 20 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 72 66 74 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 59/61