093 
FXUS64 KBRO 261108 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
608 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

- There is a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches through
  Sunday. Rip currents can be life-threatening for anyone entering
  the water.

- Near or record-breaking heat lasts through Tuesday. A cold front
  Tuesday night will bring more typical fall temperatures by
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Through Tuesday...A frontal boundary passing over early Sunday 
will bring a bit drier air into the region - about 5-10% less RH 
than Saturday. I hate to sound like a broken record, but near-
record breaking high temperatures continue in the RGV through the 
short term as high pressure behind the frontal boundary builds. 
Showers over the Gulf ahead of the boundary this morning may seep 
onto the coast Sunday (rain chances ~10%), but outside of this, 
rain chances remain near zero.

Beyond the unseasonable heat, coastal hazards are a concern for the 
short term. A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Sunday 
as gusty winds maintain elevated seas. Elevated seas also increase 
the risk for coastal run-up during high tide (10:44 PM Saturday, 
11:46 PM Sunday). Webcams at SPI have precluded issuance of Coastal 
Flood Statement, however, narrow beaches and run-up in the hours 
surrounding high tide are possible. 

Wednesday through next weekend...A pattern change is in store for
deep South TX as a trough digs into central CONUS before forming 
a cutoff a low. A cold front associated with this low pressure is 
expected to pass through the CWA Wednesday. This frontal passage 
will increase rain chances along the front (between 10-40%, 
highest chances in coastal counties), and bring breezy winds. With
great relief, cold air advection behind this front is expected to
bring much more seasonable temperatures for late October/early 
November in the latter half of the week. Dare I say... 
temperatures slightly below average are a reasonable possibility, 
with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, and overnight 
lows in the 50s. Average high/low temperatures for Brownsville, 
McAllen, and Zapata for this time of year are 84/65, 85/65, and 
82/60 degF respectively. 

Dry air behind the front, which could drop precipitable water to 
minimum values based on climatology (~0.5"), may bring elevated fire 
weather concerns Wednesday. This will continue to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period at
all TAF sites. Winds are expected to be generally light and
variable through the period as well. Skies are expected to be
generally clear as well. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Moderate seas and moderate westerly flow Sunday morning will 
shift northerly through the day, becoming onshore and light to 
gentle with slight seas by Monday. A passing frontal boundary may 
bring showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning through the day (10
to 30 percent chance). Generally favorable conditions will 
persist until overnight Tuesday as an approaching cold front 
elevates seas to moderate with a strong northerly breeze. Small 
Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory conditions will
likely be present Tuesday night through Thursday. Increased 
chances of rain (medium, around 50 percent) over the Gulf will 
accompany the mid-week cold frontal passage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Record high temperatures may be tied or broken across the Rio Grande 
Valley through Tuesday. The existing record high temperatures for 
Brownsville, Harlingen, and McAllen are listed below.

Sunday, October 26th 
Brownsville: 92 degrees in 1917 
Harlingen: 95 degrees in 1947 
McAllen: 96 degrees in 2010

Monday, October 27th 
Brownsville: 94 degrees in 2021 
Harlingen: 94 degrees in 1931 
McAllen: 97 degrees in 2021

Tuesday, October 28th 
Brownsville: 91 degrees in 2023 
Harlingen: 96 degrees in 1931 
McAllen: 96 degrees in 2015

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             93  73  92  73 /  10  10   0   0 
HARLINGEN               94  68  95  68 /  10   0   0   0 
MCALLEN                 97  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  69  97  70 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  78  85  78 /  20  10   0   0 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  71  89  72 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...64-Katz