511 
FXUS64 KBRO 101130 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
530 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

- A Gale Warning is in effect through 9 AM this afternoon for the
  Gulf waters, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the 
  Laguna Madre through this afternoon.

- A High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory is in effect
  through at least this evening along the Lower Texas beaches. 
  Minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out, especially near high
  tide.

- Low temperatures are forecast to reach the  upper 30s to upper 
  40s Monday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Latest marine observations continue to indicate gusts at or near
gale force over the Gulf waters. Therefore, based on latest trends
will extend the current Gale Warning until 9 AM for the Gulf
waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed later this
morning into the afternoon for the Gulf waters. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Cooler temperatures are expected for the next couple days in the 
wake of Sunday's cold front. Wind speeds through Sunday evening 
have trended lower than guidance, with wind gusts diminishing 
across most inland areas. Model guidance continues to show wind 
gusts from 25-30 mph overnight into midday Monday. This guidance 
doesn't align with recent observations across the region, which 
show generally light winds around 10 mph for the past couple 
hours. With the cooler temperatures and lack of solar heating, the
boundary layer may remain decoupled overnight, which would not 
support stronger gusts mixing to the surface. Due to this 
uncertainty, the the wind gust forecast has been capped at 25 mph 
across inland portions of the CWA.

Low temperatures are expected to fall to the mid 40s to low 50s 
by sunrise Monday morning, with high temperatures in the mid 60s 
to low 70s Monday. Monday night will likely be the coldest night 
this week, with low temperatures falling to the upper 30s to mid 
40s across the northern counties and mid to upper 40s across the 
Rio Grande Valley.

Southeasterly winds are expected to return Tuesday, allowing for 
a gradual warming trend through the remainder of the work week. 
Another cold front may approach the region next weekend, though it
is too far out to begin focusing on the specific impacts it may 
bring.

Dangerous beach conditions are expected to continue Monday. Winds
along the coast and over the Gulf waters are forecast to remain
elevated into Monday afternoon, continuing to support high surf
and increased rip current activity and intensity. The High Surf
Advisory and the High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in effect
through Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Breezy northwest to northerly winds prevail across Deep South
Texas early this morning. Moderate northerly winds with some 
gusts of 15 to 25 knots are expected into the afternoon. Winds 
will gradually decrease later this afternoon into this evening. 
Light and variable winds are expected later tonight. VFR conditions
will continue for the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue overnight, 
with Gale Force wind gusts and 10-12 ft seas on the coastal Gulf 
waters. The Gale Warning remains in effect until 6 AM Monday. 
Winds and seas will likely begin to subside by sunrise, and 
gradually improve through the day Monday. A Small Craft Advisory 
will likely be needed into the early afternoon Monday.

On the Laguna Madre, the Small Craft Advisory will remain in 
effect until noon Monday, and may need to be extended for a few 
hours as models show 20-25 knot winds continuing into the 
afternoon. However recent observations along the Laguna Madre have
been below guidance, and on the low end of Small Craft Advisory 
criteria. If winds continue to improve, an extension may not be 
required, and it is possible the Advisory could be canceled early.

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to return by
Monday night, though this will likely be short lived as increased
wind speeds over the Gulf waters Tuesday afternoon may require
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or another Small
Craft Advisory. Adverse conditions may return again near the end
of the forecast, as another Cold front may approach the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

There is some uncertainty in the fire weather forecast for Monday
afternoon, largely relating to the 20 foot wind speeds across the
area. Low relative humidity values are expected Monday afternoon,
with minimum values ranging from 10-15% across all but the 
coastal counties and 15-25% across inland portions of Cameron, 
Willacy, and Kenedy counties. 

20 foot wind speeds, however, are forecast to remain just below 15
mph through the morning and decrease through the afternoon. To
further complicate the forecast, recent observations have remained
below most of the model guidance, and if that trend continues,
these lower wind speeds would further limit the fire weather
concerns Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             70  49  78  63 /   0   0   0   0 
HARLINGEN               70  44  79  57 /   0   0   0   0 
MCALLEN                 71  48  81  60 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY         72  42  81  55 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      69  55  75  70 /   0   0   0   0 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     69  51  77  62 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ130-132-135.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...63-KC