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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO Product Timestamp: 2025-06-30 23:53 UTC
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579 FXUS64 KBRO 302353 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 653 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the short term period for all of Deep South Texas with medium to high precipitation chances (40-80%) through Tuesday evening, and low precipitation chances (20-30%) Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Anomalously high moisture content will continue to be transported via well established low level southeasterly flow, with guidance indicated precipitable water values remaining upwards of 2.25-2.50 inches through the forecast period. The 12Z BRO upper air sounding measured a precipitable water value of 2.21 inches this morning, which is well above the 90th percentile according to SPC’s sounding climatology. Expect multiple rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday evening, with any activity capable of locally heavy rain given the presence of high moisture content. Thunderstorms will be capable of gusty winds upwards of 30-4 MPH and lightning. Otherwise, expect below normal high temperatures and near normal low temperatures. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through at least Tuesday evening along the lower Texas beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Moisture content remains elevated on Thursday across the region, with guidance estimating precipitable water values around 2 inches. Subsidence will also begin to increase as high pressure begins to build, which should limit any convective development to be mainly confined to sea breeze activity, primarily during the afternoon hours. As ridging continues to build overhead by the end of the week and into the weekend, there should be fairly low (10% or less) precipitation chances for the 4th of July holiday and weekend. Near normal temperatures to slightly above normal temperatures with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s across the region, with highs in the mid to upper 90s along the Lower Texas beaches. In combination with the humidity, heat index values each afternoon will range from 100 to110 degrees. A minor to moderate heat risk will prevail through the 4th of July holiday weekend. Remember to practice heat safety if you are planning on spending a prolonged period outdoors for any festivities or outdoor activities. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Unsettled conditions to continue through the period. Currently VFR, although a low chance (>30%) of showers at all sites with short-lived MVFR possible. Tuesday, isolated-scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms return as early as 11Z (most likely 13-16Z) and will last through the afternoon. Lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds up to 40 kts are possible within any thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Low to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. Unsettled weather will continue through at least Wednesday afternoon, with medium to high chances (50-80%) through Tuesday afternoon and low chances (10-20%) on Wednesday. Any thunderstorms will be capable of gusty winds upwards of 40 knots, lightning, and heavy rainfall which may result in locally enhanced winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 86 76 90 / 50 80 30 30 HARLINGEN 73 87 73 91 / 40 80 30 20 MCALLEN 76 88 76 92 / 30 80 30 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 84 73 88 / 30 70 30 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 85 78 86 / 50 70 30 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 86 76 89 / 40 70 30 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22-Garcia LONG TERM....22-Garcia AVIATION...69-HK