455 
FXUS64 KBRO 231131 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
531 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

 - Above average and record-breaking, or near record-breaking,
   high temperatures continue through Tuesday.

 - There is a medium to likely (40-60%) chance of rain across the
   region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in association with
   the passage of a cold front.

 - Near average temperatures follow behind the front along with a
   low (15-20%) chance of rain along and east of I-69 E continuing
   into next weekend.
   

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1019 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A lingering frontal boundary situated just north of our County 
Warning Area (CWA) is expected to generate a low to medium (20-40%) 
chance of rain across the northern ranchlands and along the 
immediate coastline this morning. As southeasterly winds return 
throughout the day, this boundary is expected to lift northward and 
diminish probabilities of precipitation (POP's) from south to north, 
resulting in dry conditions (<10% PoP's) across all of Deep South 
Texas by this evening, continuing into Tuesday. Meanwhile, a mid-
level trough is projected to translate northeastward from the Desert 
Southwest today into the Central Plains on Monday, extending another 
frontal boundary southward, possibly arriving to and stalling near 
the Rio Grande Plains Monday evening into Tuesday. Lift provided by 
this boundary and upper level divergence ahead of a weak trough over 
western Texas are currently expected to gradually increase chances 
of rain to a low (15-20%) chance across most of the CWA by Tuesday 
evening. Meanwhile, an amplifying shortwave trough moving eastward 
over the Northern Plains is likely to initiate a cold front, with 
moisture pooling ahead of it increasing chances of rain overnight 
Tuesday to a medium to likely (40-60%) chance by Wednesday morning 
as the front pushes through, bringing northeasterly to northerly 
winds. Following, PoP's diminish throughout most of inland Deep 
South Texas by Wednesday night, though coastal troughing could 
maintain a low (15-20%) chance of rain along and east of I-69 E into 
next weekend, with southeasterly winds returning on Friday. 

Sustained onshore flow and/or warm air advection via 
southeasterly/southerly surface winds are expected to continue to 
result in very warm and humid conditions through Tuesday. 
Temperatures will continue to run 10-15 degrees F above average 
during this time with record-breaking, or near record-breaking, 
highs in the 80's to lower 90's followed by overnight low 
temperatures in the 60's and 70's. The passage of the cold front and 
increased cloud cover on Wednesday, and beyond, will drop 
temperatures to near average on Wednesday and Thursday, followed 
by a warming trend into next weekend as southeasterly winds 
return on Friday.

A medium risk of rip currents continues through the day today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Shallow field fog may diminish visibility at times through just 
after sunset. VFR conditions are generally expected, with brief 
MVFR to IFR visibility. Southeasterly winds gradually increase 
into the afternoon and remain breezy tonight into Monday with VFR
ceilings. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1019 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Mostly moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 
feet) seas during the day today become moderate to fresh, possibly 
near strong, south-southeasterly winds tonight into Monday morning 
as a pressure gradient tightens, resulting in moderate seas of 
4-6 feet as well likely Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) 
headlines. A shorter-fused Small Craft Advisory may be possible as
well. Conditions improve briefly throughout Monday night, leading
to gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and moderate (3-4 feet)
seas. A cold front drops through late Tuesday night or early 
Wednesday morning, likely bringing another round of SCEC headlines
through Wednesday night, followed by mainly moderate winds and 
moderate seas into next weekend. Chances of rain decrease from a 
low to medium (20- 50%) chance today to less than 10% chance into 
Monday. Chances of rain gradually build Monday night to as much as
a medium to likely (40-60%) chance Tuesday night before 
diminishing to a low to medium (15-40%) by Thursday and beyond. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             87  74  87  72 /  10   0   0   0 
HARLINGEN               88  69  90  67 /  20   0   0   0 
MCALLEN                 90  73  92  70 /  10   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  69  92  66 /  10   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  76  83  75 /  20   0   0  10 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     85  71  86  69 /  20   0   0  10 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...56-Hallman