National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO Received: 2018-08-18 19:39 UTC
318 FXUS64 KBRO 181939 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 239 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018 .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): The H5 ridge remains centered over Arizona during the short term period, trying to extend eastward across southern Texas. This ridge will get pinched during the day tomorrow by a weak inverted trough across the central Gulf and a trough dropping southeastward out of the Northern Rockies. This will decrease the strength of the ridging across Texas, and will allow slightly deeper Gulf moisture to push westward up along the Gulf coast. Temperatures will remain in the upper 90s and lower 100s, but the slight uptick in moisture will mean increased heat index readings of 107 to 111 during the afternoon Sunday. The trough to the north will also bring a weak cold front into north central Texas, which will tighten the gradient locally. This will result in a breezy day tomorrow, with winds approaching 20kts, with a few gusts of 25 to 30 possible during the afternoon hours. Moisture increase will not be enough to bring a chance of rain, but cloud cover will be a little more evident in the afternoon. LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Overhead mid level ridging will retreat west slightly by Monday as a short wave trough moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains. A surface front will push south into central Texas on Monday, but will weaken enough to stall before it gets close to the CWA. As it does so, mid level ridging will build back over the area. Thus, hot, sunny, and rain free weather should continue through Tuesday. While earlier forecasts may have picked up on rain signals, don't see much now. Guidance does improve rain chances a skosh for Tues and beyond, but even so barely matches climo. Thus, rain chances will remain low through much to most of the long term, but can't rule out isolated sea breeze convection each afternoon. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. High temperatures will range from the lower 90s near the coast to the mid and upper 90s inland, to triple digits across the mid to upper valley under mostly sunny skies. Overnight low temps will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. By Friday and Saturday a weak mid level low will detach from the larger scale flow and will set up over the lower Mississippi Valley. That weakness may continue south and southwest toward the lower Texas coast on Sunday and Monday, but other than a few showers, it's not clear whether there will be much more impact. && .MARINE: Now through Sunday night: Gulf winds have remained light today, generally less than 10 knots, but winds across the Laguna Madre have been steady in the 15 to 20 knot range. Mariners are advised caution on the Laguna today until sunset when winds will decrease. Lighter winds will continue for all areas overnight, allowing the Laguna waters to relax and Gulf waters to remain 2 feet or less. A breezier day expected for the Laguna Sunday as winds increase due to a cold front in central Texas. Winds may reach sustained 20 knot level during the day, so mariners should be aware of possible Small Craft Advisory conditions for the Laguna Madre. Gulf marine conditions will remain more tranquil, with lighter winds of 10 knots and swells remaining around 2 feet. Monday through Thursday night: Light to moderate southeast to south winds and low to moderate seas will prevail as broad high pressure remains over the Gulf. Occasional isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 95 80 93 / 0 0 0 10 BROWNSVILLE 79 97 80 94 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 78 100 79 97 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 79 102 80 99 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 105 79 101 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 91 81 90 / 10 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 64/54