National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO Received: 2019-03-26 19:55 UTC


253 
FXUS64 KBRO 261955
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
255 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): The front has 
virtually stalled this afternoon along or just north of the river.
Showers continue to form along and either side of the front and 
drift westward as drier air is trying to seep in from the 
northeast. No lightning has been observed thus far today, however 
some of the showers briefly produce moderate to heavy rainfall 
with Harlingen airport earlier reporting just over one half inch 
from a persistent shower. The showers are expected to continue 
drifting west as high pressure edges into the northwest Gulf 
pushing the drier air farther westward. Models indicate most of 
the activity to end by 00Z with some lingering showers across the 
Upper Valley and the Western Ranchlands this evening. Temperatures
have been hovering near or slightly below normal today, 
fluctuating up and down with the passing showers and occasional 
thicker cloud cover. Clouds to linger tonight with partial 
clearing possible along the coast and the Lower Valley where the 
drier air tries to seep in. Overnight lows will be highly 
dependent on the cloud cover with all areas dipping into the 60s 
tonight. Some northern locations could drop into the 50s while the
RGV might remain a few degrees higher then forecast minimums all 
depending if the clouds clear or hang around respectively. Models 
are in good agreement settling high pressure over the northwest 
Gulf and the Deep South Wednesday. This will continue to usher in 
limited drier air but at the same time veer winds to the 
southeast. Sufficient dry air in the mid-layers to mix out any 
remaining morning stratus by the afternoon with partly sunny to 
partly cloudy skies prevailing and temperatures rebounding near or
slightly above 80 degrees throughout the Rio Grande Valley and 
Deep South Texas. 

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across the
south-central United States Thursday will weaken and flatten out
allowing a more zonal flow to develop across the southern tier of
the country Friday. A 500mb trough will develop across the
northwest U.S. Friday and move eastward across the north-central
U.S. Saturday. This will allow a frontal system over northwest
Texas Friday to move northeast and bring a cold front into south
Texas Saturday. Low to mid level moisture is progged to increase
across deep south Texas Sat night into Sunday as the front moves
into the area. Elevated convection is expected to develop along
and in the wake of the front Sat night into Sunday before a 500mb
shortwave trough across New Mexico into south Texas Monday. This
should bring drier air into the Rio Grande valley Monday bringing
an end to rain chances from west to east late Mon afternoon into 
Mon evening. Temperatures will be near normal for highs and above
normal for lows Thursday through Saturday. Cooler air will move
into the CWA Sat night into Sunday with below normal temperatures
prevailing Sunday through Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Wednesday night): The cold front has likely 
stalled just south of the coastal waters and will continue to drift 
slowly south tonight dissipating Wednesday. Surface high pressure 
building into the Northwest Gulf through Wednesday will maintain a 
moderate northeast flow tonight veering east to southeast Wednesday. 
Moderate seas have developed with the bump in the northeast winds 
and should remain steady state through tomorrow. Conditions may 
briefly reach exercise caution levels, 15-20kts and 4-6ft, overnight 
but should trend slightly lower Wednesday.   

Thursday through Sunday...Moderate southeast winds will prevail
across the coastal waters Thursday with surface high pressure
across the southeast United States and surface low pressure on the
lee side of the Rockies. The pressure gradient will remain
relatively strong across the lower Texas coast Friday before
weakening Saturday as a cold front across northwest Texas Friday moves
into south Texas Saturday. Light to moderate south to southeast
winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Saturday
before diminishing and backing the east Sat night. Winds will
shift to the northeast and increase late Sat night into Sunday in
the wake of the front moving offshore the lower Texas coast Sat 
night into Sunday morning. Small craft advisories will likely be 
needed for the offshore waters late Sat night into Sunday. 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  78  64  77 /  10   0   0  10 
BROWNSVILLE          65  80  64  78 /  10   0   0  10 
HARLINGEN            62  81  63  80 /  10   0   0  10 
MCALLEN              66  82  65  83 /  10   0   0  10 
RIO GRANDE CITY      65  81  64  83 /  20  10   0  10 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   65  72  66  74 /   0   0   0  10 
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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