237 
FXUS65 KBOU 071153
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
553 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through at least Saturday.

- Only isolated to scattered showers (15-30% coverage) for the 
  mountains and higher terrain. Any precipitation would be light. 

- Pattern change late this weekend and early next week. Still  
  considerable uncertainty as to when and how much temperatures 
  will cool, and what chance of precipitation we'll see. 

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 1049 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The upper level ridge that brought record/near record temperatures
to the forecast area the last two days will remain over the region
through Thursday. This means a continuation of unseasonably warm
weather, although the potential of record temperatures will drop
slightly Wednesday as we see just a slight push of easterly winds
across the plains. That will result in just a couple degrees of 
cooling, with lower to mid 80s common for highs across the plains 
both Wednesday and Thursday. Given a little moisture hanging under
the ridge, expect a similar convective scenario to Tuesday with 
isolated to scattered light showers/isolated storms mainly over 
the high country. 

On Friday, we'll start to get into west/southwest flow aloft as
the ridge starts to break down as an upper level trough moves into
the Pacific Northwest (PNW). This will support more downslope 
flow and a continuation of very warm temperatures. In fact, this 
could get us close (30-40% chance) of tying another record high on
either Thursday or Friday (Records are 85F and 87F, respectively).
With the increasing downslope, any isolated showers or storms 
would be confined to the mountains. 

There is excellent agreement that the warmth will persist for one
more day Saturday, before a pattern shift occurs. By Sunday, the
PNW trough is still forecast to drop southward across California,
picking up remnants of Hurricane Rachel. The trough has trended
deeper and farther west, which means the bulk of the precipitation
(some heavy) will once again end up falling over the Desert 
Southwest into Utah and perhaps western Colorado. For the most 
part, our forecast area will likely remain sheltered from any 
significant precipitation. There are only a couple outliers with 
heavier rain and mountain snow for us, and this might be because 
of the handling of yet the next tropical storm which is still in 
the very early stages of expected development. Thus, the best 
chance of precipitation is now likely to hold off until Wednesday 
or Thursday but a lot of uncertainty exists there. The uncertainty
surrounding temperatures also holds true, with some ensemble 
members having a backdoor cool front reaching us Sunday or more 
likely Monday. But given the farther west location of the upper 
trough, it seems like the main push of cooler air would likely 
get delayed. We'll stick near the ensemble averages at this point 
but should be worth noting that Monday's highs could range 
anywhere from the mid 40s to the mid 80s, with 25-75th percentiles
showing 60s-70s. A lot of spread but more confidence of cooling 
to autum-like temperatures toward the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/...
Issued at 551 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A weak push of 
northerly winds has made it through the Denver metro this morning
although speeds remain light (<08KT). Winds will remain light at 
the three airports today, shifting to the NE-E as the afternoon 
progresses, and perhaps becoming variable at times. The chance for
virga showers is low (15%), but an isolated outflow boundary 
cannot be completely ruled out late this afternoon. Winds will 
turn southerly in the early evening hours. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...AA