476 
FXUS64 KOHX 172117 AAA
AFDBNA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
400 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, HAS NOW EXITED THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER, A SECOND
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
500MB VORT MAX, WAS JUST STARTING TO PUSH INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

HAVE LEFT IN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT HAVE KEPT THE
30% POP RUNNING ALL NIGHT ALONG THE PLATEAU, WHERE THE SAGGING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD SET OFF A SHOWER OR STORM LATER IN THE NIGHT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING ALONG ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS, HAVE LEFT THE 50% POP
RUNNING FOR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY. HOWEVER, BY THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WE SHOULD GET BACK INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH SHOULD GIVE US A RETURN
TO A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD.

&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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