898 
FXUS63 KBIS 030407
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1007 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain tapering off over central ND tonight. Chances for rain 
  continue across portions of the James River Valley on Tuesday.

- Breezy to windy southwest, central and east tonight, and for
  southeast North Dakota on Tuesday.
 
- Near to above normal temperatures and dry weather favored for
  the middle to later portions of this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

We cancelled the Wind Advisory for the far southwest and south
central. It had been a couple of hours since we hit advisory
criteria gusts, and winds will continue to slowly subside
overnight. As mentioned in the previous update, we bumped up
temperatures due to the widespread stratus. We also added some
patchy fog after midnight in the far west, as clear skies have
reached the border, with clear skies in Montana. However, there
is a blob of lower stratus in southeast Saskatchewan dropping
south that may cloud things back up. Also, some patchy fog was
reported in Plentywood MT. Anywhere in the west that could 
clear up, may see some fog develop. Winds in the far west have 
dropped off quite a bit so this seems a reasonable solution of 
skies remain clear for a while. 

UPDATE
Issued at 556 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

For the early evening update we adjusted pops based on latest
radar and observations. We also bumped up low temperatures for
tonight. With widespread stratus expected to linger through the
night, the NBM low temperatures look a little too low. Otherwise
no significant changes needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Currently, long wave upper level trough over the central CONUS
with embedded lows over eastern North Dakota and the Southern
Plains. Associated sfc trough over eastern South Dakota extends
north-northeast into western Minnesota. Widespread rain 
continues over most areas of western and central North Dakota, 
but has mainly diminished over the northwest outside of a few 
sprinkles. This trend will continue from northwest to southeast 
for the rest of today and tonight, as the main forcing shifts to
the east. Thus far have received over an inch of rainfall in 
parts of west central North Dakota, and especially in the 
southeast/James River Valley where an inch to over an inch and a
quarter has been observed. Still on track to maybe seeing 
upwards to 2 inches of rain across parts of the James Valley 
through tonight/Tue daytime. 

On the backside of the aforementioned sfc trough, northerly
winds have increased and will continue to be gusty into the
evening hours. Strongest winds still expected far southwest and
far south central, where the Wind Advisory remains in effect
till 06Z tonight. 

Surface high pressures builds into the western Dakotas on
Tuesday, along with a quasi-omega ridge forming over the
Northern Rockies, and the Southern Plains upper low lifting
north-northeast to the Upper Mississippi Valley region. This may
linger wrap around showers over my southeast for Tuesday and
maybe even for Tuesday night and Wednesday as it is projected to
stall over Minnesota. Clearing over at least the western half 
of the region Tue and Wed. Cooler/near to slightly below normal
highs forecast for Tue (40s), then slowly warming on Wed (mid
40s to lower 50s). 

Weak ridging builds into the central CONUS for the later period
of the week, maintaining mainly dry weather and temperatures
moderating to a several degrees above normal by the end of the
week (low/mid 50s for Friday forecast). Thereafter, ensembles
show a progressive upper level pattern thus higher level of
uncertainty in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rain has ended over western ND and much of north central ND.
Rain will continue to taper across the south central and into
the James River Valley overnight. Widespread stratus is 
expected to linger through the night with mainly IFR to LIFR 
ceilings. The far west could see some clearing overnight, but
also may fog back in if skies do clear. There is also an area of
stratus dropping south from Saskatchewan that may bring stratus
back to the far west, at least for portions of the overnight
hours. Look for improving ceilings from west to east as low 
stratus burns off on Tuesday. IFR_MVFR ceilings may linger over
the southern James River Valley through the entire TAF period. 

North to northwest winds 15 to 30 kts diminishing west but
continuing central ND through the night. Winds diminish central
Tuesday and Tuesday evening in the James River Valley.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...TWH