466 
FXUS63 KBIS 081932
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
232 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of smoke return to parts of western and south central
  North Dakota this afternoon and evening.

- Warm and mainly dry to start the week.

- Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms return for
  the second half of the week through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues across the region as a weak
surface low and warm front lift through the region. The warm 
front continues to bring warmer temperatures to the region as 
the southwest has warmed up into the mid 80s. There are also 
some shower chances and across the southwest this afternoon. 
Smoke continues to filter in from eastern Montana impacting the 
southwest mainly. The HRRR Smoke model has the main push of 
surface smoke filtering into the Northwestern South Dakota 
tonight. Overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the upper
40s north to lower 50s south.

An upper level ridge is forecast to amplify across the Plains 
Tuesday leading to another round of near to above normal 
temperatures through the week. However, high clouds and elevated
smoke will likely keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler 
then today before temperatures jump back up Thursday. The 
aforementioned upper level ridge will pass over during the 
middle of the week. 

Lee troughing east of the Northern Rockies and surface high
pressure over the Great Lake will lead to a north south 
orientated pressure gradient. This will increase winds across 
the state Wednesday and Thursday leading to breezy conditions. A
wave is forecast to move into the region late Wednesday brining
in a shot for showers and thunderstorms. Daily low to medium 
chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the 
end of the week as shortwaves move through the region. The 
pattern looks to be more active this coming weekend as a broad 
trough could move through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

VFR conditions continue across the region. FU continues to
filter into the southwest and west and should really only impact
KDIK this afternoon and evening. There is a very low chance of
showers this afternoon across the region. Showers will be most
likely be virga due to dry air near the surface.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson